The dynamics of marine systems at decadal scales are notoriously hard to predict—hence references to this timescale as the “grey zone” for ocean prediction. Nevertheless, decadal-scale prediction is a rapidly developing field with an increasing number of applications to help guide ocean stewardship and sustainable use of marine environments. Such predictions can provide industry and managers with information more suited to support planning and management over strategic timeframes, as compared to seasonal forecasts or long-term (century-scale) predictions. The most significant advances in capability for decadal-scale prediction over recent years have been for ocean physics and biogeochemistry, with some notable advances in ecological prediction skill. In this paper, we argue that the process of “lighting the grey zone” by providing improved predictions at decadal scales should also focus on including human dimensions in prediction systems to better meet the needs and priorities of end users. Our paper reviews information needs for decision-making at decadal scales and assesses current capabilities for meeting these needs. We identify key gaps in current capabilities, including the particular challenge of integrating human elements into decadal prediction systems. We then suggest approaches for overcoming these challenges and gaps, highlighting the important role of co-production of tools and scenarios, to build trust and ensure uptake with end users of decadal prediction systems. We also highlight opportunities for combining narratives and quantitative predictions to better incorporate the human dimension in future efforts to light the grey zone of decadal-scale prediction.

To optimize irrigation, agronomists need to modulate crop water productivity (CWP) throughout phenology. We compared regulated deficit irrigation (RDI) and sustained deficit irrigation (SDI) in chickpea (Cicer arietinum L. var. Blanoro), expecting RDI during vegetative growth (VG) to enhance CWP, as opposed to flowering (F) and pod-filling (PF) stages. The effects of RDI and SDI on grain yield, plant height, weight, grain caliber, pods and grains per plant, harvest index, and CWP, were tested through a complete randomized block experiment during the years 2020 and 2021, comparing full irrigation (FI, ETc = 100%), SDI (SDI₇₅, ETc = 75% during all stages), and six RDI treatments varying in ETc% across phenology: VG₅₀, VG₇₅, F₅₀, F₇₅, PF₅₀, and PF₇₅. VG₇₅ had higher CWP while minimizing impacts on productivity. During 2020, the plants were taller (0.44 ± 4.4 m), and increased in harvest index (0.47 ± 0.06), and CWP (0.90 ± 0.2 kg m⁻³) (p < 0.05), while in 2021, plants were heavier (11.4 ± 2.8 g) and increased in caliber (46.1 ± 3.0 grains); grain yield did not differ between the years (p ˃ 0.05), reaching 861.8 (2020) and 944.7 kg ha⁻¹ (2021). Our results highlight the relevance of maintaining 100% ETc during flowering, and the maintenance of RDI at 75% ETc during vegetative growth.

Climate change triggers a wide mosaic of regional and local responses, often different to the large-scale variability in magnitude and direction. Because of the psychological connections (cognitive and emotional) with the frequency, intensity and age of a climatic event, people may have the capacity to recognize key variations at lower scales, especially those from which they perceive risk. Yet, the anticipatory actions and social engagement to respond or adapt to climate change are difficult to achieve, mostly when there exists a long psychological distance to climatic phenomena. Research about climate change communication provides clues about the relevance of place-based discussion to gauge risk perception and improve response protocols, their design and prioritization. It argues that strategies and actions required to face climate risks may widely differ depending on the scale and accuracy of the local representations displayed during discussions of climate impacts. This work examines how local attributes (from climate to social) operate and control place-specific risks and priorities, by comparing coastal communities in two locations, Cabo Pulmo, Mexico and Zanzibar, Tanzania, which are subject to different climate dynamics. This paper discusses the need to identify relevant climate risks/responses at the local level and how psycho-social factors (e.g., psychological distance, collective memory, and social engagement) may operate positively for building climate resilience. We also illustrate a workflow to increase and enhance collaboration between researchers and local people by promoting dialogue, participation and narratives that rigorously consider the local knowledge.