Limits to the growing season: The length of the growing season in temperate forests has been increasing under recent climate change because of earlier leaf emergence and later leaf senescence. However, Zani et al. show that this trend might be reversed as increasing photosynthetic productivity begins to drive earlier autumn leaf senescence (see the Perspective by Rollinson). Using a combination of experimental, observational, and modeling studies based on European forest trees, the researchers conclude that leaf senescence will advance by 3 to 6 days by the end of the 21st century rather than lengthening by 1 to 3 weeks as current phenological models have predicted. In turn, this predicted phenological pattern will limit the capacity of temperate forests to mitigate climate change through carbon uptake. Science , this issue p. 1066 ; see also p. 1030

Introduction: The ability of species to colonize newly suitable habitats under rapid climate change can be constrained by migration processes, resulting in a shift of the leading edge lagging behind the ameliorating climate, i.e. migration lag. The importance and extent of such migration lags during the forest expansion after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are still debated. Similarly, the relative importance of the main drivers of post-glacial vegetation dynamics (temperature, dispersal limitation, and competition) is still discussed in the literature.Methods: We used the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GM 2.0 to reconstruct the range shifts of 16 competing major European tree species after the LGM (18.5 ka BP) until recent times (0 ka BP). We simulated two dispersal modes by allowing free establishment whenever the climatic conditions suited the species (free dispersal), or by accounting for migration processes in the simulated vegetation dynamics (dispersal limitation). We then calculated thermal and range shift velocities, competition at establishment, thermal and dispersal lags for each species and dispersal mode. Finally, we compared our simulated range shift velocities with pollen-derived migration rates.Results: The simulation assuming limited dispersal resulted in more accurate migration rates as compared to pollen-derived migration rates and spreading patterns. We found no marked migration lags in the post-glacial establishment of pioneer species (Pinus sylvestris and Betula pubescens). Under the free dispersal mode, the remaining temperate species expanded rapidly and almost synchronously across central Europe upon climate warming (Bølling-Allerød interstadial). Differently, the northward spread of temperate species simulated under dispersal limitation happened mainly during the Holocene and in successive waves, with late spreaders (e.g. Fraxinus excelsior) experiencing multi-millennial dispersal lags and higher competition.Discussion: Our simulation under dispersal constraints suggests that the post-glacial tree expansion in Europe was mainly driven by species-specific thermal requirements and dispersal capacity, which in turn affected the order of taxa establishment and thus the degree of competition. Namely, taxa with less cold-tolerance and relatively low dispersal ability experienced the highest migration lags, whereas the establishment of pioneer species was mostly in equilibrium with the climate.

Our study showed that increases in seasonal productivity drive earlier autumn senescence of temperate trees. Norby argues that this finding is contradicted by observations from free-air CO ₂ enrichment (FACE) experiments, where elevated CO ₂ has been found to delay senescence in some cases. We provide a detailed answer showing that the results from FACE studies are in agreement with our conclusions.

Aim: How the ability of plants to move towards newly favourable habitats (dispersal limitation) impacts the change of biome distribution and transition under fast climate warming is still debated. Analysing vegetation change in the past may help to clarify the relative importance of underlying ecological processes such as climate, biotic interactions, and dispersal. In this study, we investigated how dispersal limitation affected the distribution of European forests in the last 18,000 years.Location: Southern and Central Europe.Taxon: Spermatophyta.Methods: Using the LPJ‐GM 2.0 model (an extension of LPJ‐GUESS), we simulated European vegetation from the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (18.5 ka) to the current time (0 ka). Using biome reconstructions from pollen data as reference, we compared the performance of two dispersal modes: with no migration constraints or seed limitation (free dispersal mode), and with plant establishment depending on seed dynamics and dispersal (dispersal limitation mode).Results: The model run, including migration processes, was better at capturing the post‐glacial expansion of European temperate forests (and the longer persistence of boreal forests) than the setting assuming free dispersal, especially during periods of rapid warming. This suggests that a number of (temperate) tree taxa experienced delayed occupancy of climatically suitable habitats due to a limited dispersal capacity, i.e., post‐glacial migration lags.Main Conclusions: Our results show that including migration processes in model simulations allows for more realistic reconstructions of forest patterns under rapid climate change, with consequences for future projections of carbon sequestration and climate reconstructions with vegetation feedback, assisted migration and forest conservation.

The prediction of species geographic redistribution under climate change (i.e. range shifts) has been addressed by both experimental and modelling approaches and can be used to inform efficient policy measures on the functioning and services of future ecosystems. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are considered state-of-the art tools to understand and quantify the spatio-temporal dynamics of ecosystems at large scales and their response to changing environments. They can explicitly include local vegetation dynamics relevant to migration (establishment, growth, seed (propagule) production), species-specific dispersal abilities and the competitive interactions with other species in the new environment. However, the inclusion of more detailed mechanistic formulations of range shift processes may also widen the overall uncertainty of the model. Thus, a quantification of these uncertainties is needed to evaluate and improve our confidence in the model predictions. In this study, we present an efficient assessment of parameter and model uncertainties combining low-cost analyses in successive steps: local sensitivity analysis, exploration of the performance landscape at extreme parameter values, and inclusion of relevant ecological processes in the model structure. This approach was tested on the newly implemented migration module of the state-of-the-art DGVM LPJ-GM, focusing on European forests. Estimates of post-glacial migration rates obtained from pollen and macrofossil records of dominant European tree taxa were used to test the model performance. The results indicate higher sensitivity of migration rates to parameters associated with the dispersal kernel (dispersal distances and kernel shape) compared to plant traits (germination rate and maximum fecundity) and highlight the importance of representing rare long-distance dispersal events via fat-tailed kernels. Overall, the successful parametrization and model selection of LPJ-GM will allow plant migration to be simulated with a more mechanistic approach at larger spatial and temporal scales, thus improving our efforts to understand past vegetation dynamics and predict future range shifts in a context of global change.