This work characterizes patterns of temporal variability in surface waters of the central Gulf of Mexico. We examine remote-sensing based observations of sea surface temperature (SST), wind speed, sea surface height anomaly (SSHA), chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a) and Net Primary Production (NPP), along with model predictions of mixed layer depth (MLD), to determine seasonal changes and long-term trends in the central Gulf of Mexico between the early 1980s and 2012. Specifically, we examine variability in four quadrants of the Gulf of Mexico (water depth >1000m). All variables show strong seasonality. Chl-a and NPP show positive anomalies in response to short-term increases in wind speed and to cold temperature events. The depth of the mixed layer (MLD) directly and significantly affects primary productivity throughout the region. This relationship is sufficiently robust to enable real-time estimates of MLD based on satellite-based estimates of NPP. Over the past 15–20years, SST, wind speed, and SSHA show a statistically significant, gradual increase. However, Chl-a and NPP show no significant trends over this period. There has also been no trend in the MLD in the Gulf of Mexico interior. The positive long-term trend in wind speed and SST anomalies is consistent with the warming phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) that started in the mid-90s. This also coincides with a negative trend in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) related to an increase in the frequency of cooler ENSO events since 1999–2000. The results suggest that over decadal scales, increasing temperature, wind speed, and mesoscale ocean activity have offsetting effects on the MLD. The lack of a trend in MLD anomalies over the past 20years explains the lack of long-term changes in chlorophyll concentration and productivity over this period in the Gulf. Understanding the background of seasonal and long-term variability in these ocean characteristics is important to interpret changes in ocean health due to episodic natural and anthropogenic events and long term climate changes or development activities. With this analysis we provide a baseline against which such changes can be measured

To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the Oceanography Society and can be found at: http://tos.org/oceanography/index.html.In the past 100 years since the birth of fisheries oceanography, research\ud on the early life history of fishes, particularly the larval stage, has been extensive, and\ud much progress has been made in identifying the mechanisms by which factors such\ud as feeding success, predation, or dispersal can influence larval survival. However, in\ud recent years, the study of fish early life history has undergone a major and, arguably,\ud necessary shift, resulting in a growing body of research aimed at understanding the\ud consequences of climate change and other anthropogenically induced stressors. Here,\ud we review these efforts, focusing on the ways in which fish early life stages are directly\ud and indirectly affected by increasing temperature; increasing CO₂ concentrations, and\ud ocean acidification; spatial, temporal, and magnitude changes in secondary production\ud and spawning; and the synergistic effects of fishing and climate change. We highlight\ud how these and other factors affect not only larval survivorship, but also the dispersal\ud of planktonic eggs and larvae, and thus the connectivity and replenishment of fish\ud subpopulations. While much of this work is in its infancy and many consequences are\ud speculative or entirely unknown, new modeling approaches are proving to be insightful\ud by predicting how early life stage survival may change in the future and how such\ud changes will impact economically and ecologically important fish populations

Muhling, B. A., Lee, S-K., Lamkin, J. T., and Liu, Y. 2011. Predicting the effects of climate change on bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) spawning habitat in the Gulf of Mexico. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1051–1062.