The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the dominant year-round pattern of monthly North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, is an important target of ongoing research within the meteorological and climate dynamics communities and is central to the work of many geologists, ecologists, natural resource managers, and social scientists. Research over the last 15 years has led to an emerging consensus: the PDO is not a single phenomenon, but is instead the result of a combination of different physical processes, including both remote tropical forcing and local North Pacific atmosphere–ocean interactions, which operate on different time scales to drive similar PDO-like SST anomaly patterns. How these processes combine to generate the observed PDO evolution, including apparent regime shifts, is shown using simple autoregressive models of increasing spatial complexity. Simulations of recent climate in coupled GCMs are able to capture many aspects of the PDO, but do so based on a balance of processes often more independent of the tropics than is observed. Finally, it is suggested that the assessment of PDO-related regional climate impacts, reconstruction of PDO-related variability into the past with proxy records, and diagnosis of Pacific variability within coupled GCMs should all account for the effects of these different processes, which only partly represent the direct forcing of the atmosphere by North Pacific Ocean SSTs.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring mode of tropical Pacific variability, with global impacts on society and natural ecosystems. While it has long been known that El Niño events display a diverse range of amplitudes, triggers, spatial patterns, and life cycles, the realization that ENSO’s impacts can be highly sensitive to this event-to-event diversity is driving a renewed interest in the subject. This paper surveys our current state of knowledge of ENSO diversity, identifies key gaps in understanding, and outlines some promising future research directions.

ENSO Variability: The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most energetic, quasiperiodic climate oscillation in the world—every few years warming large expanses of the surface equatorial Pacific Ocean surface and impacting temperatures and rainfall patterns across the globe. A pressing question, in the context of global warming, is whether ENSO might be affected by the rising atmospheric temperatures caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Climate models do not agree on the answer to this question, but one place to look for data about how global temperatures might influence ENSO is the record of past ENSO variability. Cobb et al. (p. 67 ) present a record of ENSO variability spanning the past 7000 years, in an attempt better to define its response to insolation forcing over this same period. The findings reveal high variability in ENSO behavior that has no clear dependence on insolation, which implies that a link to warming, if it exists, may be difficult to detect.