Deterioration of reproductive traits with age is observed in an increasing number of species. Although such deterioration is often attributed to reproductive senescence, a within-individual decline in reproductive success with age, few studies on wild animals have focused on direct fitness measures while accounting for selective disappearance and terminal effects, and to our knowledge none have determined how senescence effects arise from underlying reproductive traits. We show for female great tits that such an approach helps understanding of the onset, impact and architecture of senescence. Cross-sectional analysis of 49 years of breeding data shows annual recruit production to decline from 3.5 years of age, this decline affecting 9 per cent of females each year. Longitudinal analyses, however, show that selective disappearance of poor-quality breeders partly masks senescence, which in fact starts at 2.8 years and affects 21 per cent of females each year. There is no evidence for abrupt terminal effects. Analyses of underlying traits show no deterioration in clutch size, but significant declines in brood size and fledgling number. Furthermore, these traits contribute −9, 12 and 39 per cent to the senescent decline in recruit production, respectively. Besides providing detailed knowledge of the patterns and architecture of senescence in a natural population, these results illustrate the importance of modelling individual variation, and facilitate study of the underlying mechanisms of senescence.

Predictions about the fate of species or populations under climate change scenarios typically neglect adaptive evolution and phenotypic plasticity, the two major mechanisms by which organisms can adapt to changing local conditions. As a consequence, we have little understanding of the scope for organisms to track changing environments by in situ adaptation. Here, we use a detailed individual-specific long-term population study of great tits (Parus major) breeding in Wytham Woods, Oxford, UK to parameterise a mechanistic model and thus directly estimate the rate of environmental change to which in situ adaptation is possible. Using the effect of changes in early spring temperature on temporal synchrony between birds and a critical food resource, we focus in particular on the contribution of phenotypic plasticity to population persistence. Despite using conservative estimates for evolutionary and reproductive potential, our results suggest little risk of population extinction under projected local temperature change; however, this conclusion relies heavily on the extent to which phenotypic plasticity tracks the changing environment. Extrapolating the model to a broad range of life histories in birds suggests that the importance of phenotypic plasticity for adjustment to projected rates of temperature change increases with slower life histories, owing to lower evolutionary potential. Understanding the determinants and constraints on phenotypic plasticity in natural populations is thus crucial for characterising the risks that rapidly changing environments pose for the persistence of such populations. Predictions about the effect of climate change on organisms often ignore the possibility that organisms can evolve, or that they have an inbuilt capacity to cope with changing conditions. In order to understand the potential for existing populations to adapt to climate change, and the relative risks of extinction, such processes need to be modelled together with projected changes in climate. In this paper, we use data from a long-term study (51 years) of a small bird, the great tit, to model how birds can match the time they breed each year with the time their food is most abundant, and how this match can change with a changing climate. We found that evolution offers the chance for short-lived birds to adapt at the rate of climate change that is expected over the next century, but that the most important way that birds can cope with climate change is their evolved ability to adjust their behaviour depending on the environment they experience (“plasticity”). We extrapolated the model to other bird species, to estimate their relative vulnerability to changing climate. The model shows that longer-lived species (which also tend to have fewer offspring and take longer to reach sexual maturity) are more vulnerable to extinction because their evolutionary potential is lower. For such species, the importance of close adjustment to their environment becomes even greater. Hence, knowledge of the causes and limits of individual adjustment to the environment are crucial to predict the fate of populations under climate change.

Longitudinal studies of senescence accumulate rapidly from natural populations. However, it is largely unknown whether different fitness components senesce in parallel, how reproductive and survival senescence contribute to declines in reproductive value, and how large the fitness cost of senescence is (the difference between the observed reproductive value and the hypothetical reproductive value, if senescence would not occur). We analyzed age-specific survival in great tits Parus major and combined our results with analyses of reproductive senescence to address these issues. Recapture probability of breeding females declined with age, suggesting age-specific increases in skipped or failed breeding and highlighting an important bias that studies of senescence in wild populations should incorporate. Survival probability also declined with age and in parallel with recruit production. Reproductive value decreased 87% between age 1 and age 9 but at a fitness cost of only 4%; the proportion of the contribution of reproductive senescence versus survival senescence to this cost was 0.7. For 11 other species, we estimated fitness costs of senescence of 6%-63% (average: birds, 9%; mammals, 42%), with relative contributions of reproductive senescence of 0.0-0.7 (average: birds, 0.4; mammals, 0.3). We suggest that understanding when and why reproductive and survival senescence differ will help in the identification of proximate mechanisms underlying variation in rates of senescence and its evolution.