In the boreal spring of 2023, an extreme coastal El Niño struck the coastal regions of Peru and Ecuador, causing devastating rainfalls, flooding, and record dengue outbreaks. Observations and ocean model experiments reveal that northerly alongshore winds and westerly wind anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific, initially associated with a record-strong Madden-Julian Oscillation and cyclonic disturbance off Peru in March, drove the coastal warming through suppressed coastal upwelling and downwelling Kelvin waves. Atmospheric model simulations indicate that the coastal warming in turn favors the observed wind anomalies over the far eastern tropical Pacific by triggering atmospheric deep convection. This implies a positive feedback between the coastal warming and the winds, which further amplifies the coastal warming. In May, the seasonal background cooling precludes deep convection and the coastal Bjerknes feedback, leading to the weakening of the coastal El Niño. This coastal El Niño is rare but predictable at 1 month lead, which is useful to protect lives and properties.

The south Indian Ocean is characterized by enhanced midlatitude storm-track activity around a prominent sea surface temperature (SST) front and unique seasonality of the surface subtropical Mascarene high. The present study investigates the climatological distribution of low-cloud fraction (LCF) and its seasonality by using satellite data, in order to elucidate the role of the storm-track activity and subtropical high. On the equatorward flank of the SST front, summertime LCF is locally maximized despite small estimated inversion strength (EIS) and high SST. This is attributable to locally augmented sensible heat flux (SHF) from the ocean under the enhanced storm-track activity, which gives rise to strong instantaneous wind speed while acting to relax the meridional gradient of surface air temperature. In the subtropics, summertime LCF is maximized off the west coast of Australia, while wintertime LCF is distributed more zonally across the basin unlike in other subtropical ocean basins. Although its zonally extended distribution is correspondent with that of LCF, EIS alone cannot explain the wintertime LCF enhancement, which precedes the EIS maximum under continuous lowering of SST and enhanced SHF in winter. Basinwide cold advection associated with the wintertime westward shift of the subtropical high contributes to the enhancement of SHF, especially around 15°–25°S, while seasonally enhanced storm-track activity augments SHF around 30°S. The analysis highlights the significance of large-scale controls, particularly through SHF, on the seasonality of the climatological LCF distribution over the south Indian Ocean, which reflect the seasonality of the Mascarene high and storm-track activity.

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) supplies vital rainfall for over one billion people. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) markedly affects the EASM, but its impacts are more robust following El Niño than La Niña. Here, we show that this asymmetry arises from the asymmetry in ENSO evolution: though most El Niño events last for one year, La Niña events often persist for 2-3 years. In the summers between consecutive La Niña events, the concurrent La Niña opposes the delayed effect of the preceding winter La Niña on the EASM, causing a reduction in the magnitude and coherence of climate anomalies. Results from a large ensemble climate model experiment corroborate and strengthen the observational analysis with an order of magnitude increase in sample size. The apparent asymmetry in the impacts of the ENSO on the EASM can be reduced by considering the concurrent ENSO, in addition to the ENSO state in the preceding winter. This has important implications for seasonal climate forecasts.

The northeastern Pacific climate system features an extensive low-cloud deck off California on the southeastern flank of the subtropical high that accompanies intense northeasterly trades and relatively low sea surface temperatures (SSTs). This study assesses climatological impacts of the low-cloud deck and their seasonal differences by regionally turning on and off the low-cloud radiative effect in a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean model. The simulations demonstrate that the cloud radiative effect causes a local SST decrease of up to 3°C on an annual average with the response extending southwestward with intensified trade winds, indicative of the wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback. This nonlocal wind response is strong in summer, when the SST decrease peaks due to increased shortwave cooling, and persists into autumn. In these seasons when the background SST is high, the lowered SST suppresses deep-convective precipitation that would otherwise occur in the absence of the low-cloud deck. The resultant anomalous diabatic cooling induces a surface anticyclonic response with the intensified trades that promote the WES feedback. Such seasonal enhancement of the atmospheric response does not occur without air–sea couplings. The enhanced trades accompany intensified upper-tropospheric westerlies, strengthening the vertical wind shear that, together with the lowered SST, acts to shield Hawaii from powerful hurricanes. On the basin scale, the anticyclonic surface wind response accelerates the North Pacific subtropical ocean gyre to speed up the Kuroshio by as much as 30%. SST thereby increases along the Kuroshio and its extension, intensifying upward turbulent heat fluxes from the ocean to increase precipitation.