Significance: Black spruce is the dominant tree species in boreal North America and has shaped forest flammability, carbon storage, and other landscape processes over the last several thousand years. However, climate warming and increases in wildfire activity may be undermining its ability to maintain dominance, shifting forests toward alternative forested and nonforested states. Using data from across North America, we evaluate whether loss of black spruce resilience is already widespread. Resilience was the most common outcome, but drier climatic conditions and more severe fires consistently undermine resilience, often resulting in complete regeneration failure. Although black spruce forests are currently moderately resilient, ongoing warming and drying may alter this trajectory, with large potential consequences for the functioning of this globally important biome.

Carbon cycling after boreal forest fire: Wildfire activity has been increasing in the boreal forests of the Northern Hemisphere, releasing carbon into the atmosphere from biomass and soil, with potential feedback to climate warming. In a long-term study, Mack et al. analyzed wildfire impacts on the carbon balance of boreal forest in Alaska, with particular focus on forest-regeneration patterns. After fire, the species composition in most of the study sites changed from black spruce to a mixture of conifers and deciduous broadleaf tree species. The stands that had shifted to deciduous dominance stored fivefold more soil carbon than stands that returned to black spruce dominance. Therefore, the functional traits of deciduous trees compensated for the combustion loss of soil carbon, pointing to a potential mitigation of the feedback effect of boreal forest fire to climate warming. Science , this issue p. 280

Pyrophytic oak landscapes across the central and eastern United States are losing dominance as shade-tolerant, fire-sensitive, or opportunistic tree species encroach into these ecosystems in the absence of periodic, low-intensity surface fires. Mesophication, a hypothesized process initiated by intentional fire exclusion by which these encroaching species progressively create conditions favorable for their own persistence at the expense of pyrophytic species, is commonly cited as causing this structural and compositional transition. However, many questions remain regarding mesophication and its role in declining oak dominance. In the present article, we review support and key knowledge gaps for the mesophication hypothesis. We then pose avenues for future research that consider which tree species and tree traits create self-perpetuating conditions and under what conditions tree-level processes might affect forest flammability at broader scales. Our goal is to promote research that can better inform restoration and conservation of oak ecosystems experiencing structural and compositional shifts across the region.

Circum-boreal and -tundra systems are crucial carbon pools that are experiencing amplified warming and are at risk of increasing wildfire activity. Changes in wildfire activity have broad implications for vegetation dynamics, underlying permafrost soils, and ultimately, carbon cycling. However, understanding wildfire effects on biophysical processes across eastern Siberian taiga and tundra remains challenging because of the lack of an easily accessible annual fire perimeter database and underestimation of area burned by MODIS satellite imagery. To better understand wildfire dynamics over the last 20 years in this region, we mapped area burned, generated a fire perimeter database, and characterized fire regimes across eight ecozones spanning 7.8 million km² of eastern Siberian taiga and tundra from ∼61–72.5° N and 100° E–176° W using long-term satellite data from Landsat, processed via Google Earth Engine. We generated composite images for the annual growing season (May–September), which allowed mitigation of missing data from snow-cover, cloud-cover, and the Landsat 7 scan line error. We used annual composites to calculate the difference Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) for each year. The annual dNBR images were converted to binary burned or unburned imagery that was used to vectorize fire perimeters. We mapped 22 091 fires burning 152 million hectares (Mha) over 20 years. Although 2003 was the largest fire year on record, 2020 was an exceptional fire year for four of the northeastern ecozones resulting in substantial increases in fire activity above the Arctic Circle. Increases in fire extent, severity, and frequency with continued climate warming will impact vegetation and permafrost dynamics with increased likelihood of irreversible permafrost thaw that leads to increased carbon release and/or conversion of forest to shrublands.

The ability to monitor post-fire ecological responses and associated vegetation cover change is crucial to understanding how boreal forests respond to wildfire under changing climate conditions. Uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) offer an affordable means of monitoring post-fire vegetation recovery for boreal ecosystems where field campaigns are spatially limited, and available satellite data are reduced by short growing seasons and frequent cloud cover. UAV data could be particularly useful across data-limited regions like the Cajander larch (Larix cajanderi Mayr.) forests of northeastern Siberia that are susceptible to amplified climate warming. Cajander larch forests require fire for regeneration but are also slow to accumulate biomass post-fire; thus, tall shrubs and other understory vegetation including grasses, mosses, and lichens dominate for several decades post-fire. Here we aim to evaluate the ability of two vegetation indices, one based on the visible spectrum (GCC; Green Chromatic Coordinate) and one using multispectral data (NDVI; Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), to predict field-based vegetation measures collected across post-fire landscapes of high-latitude Cajander larch forests. GCC and NDVI showed stronger linkages with each other at coarser spatial resolutions e.g., pixel aggregated means with 3-m, 5-m and 10-m radii compared to finer resolutions (e.g., 1-m or less). NDVI was a stronger predictor of aboveground carbon biomass and tree basal area than GCC. NDVI showed a stronger decline with increasing distance from the unburned edge into the burned forest. Our results show NDVI tended to be a stronger predictor of some field-based measures and while GCC showed similar relationships with the data, it was generally a weaker predictor of field-based measures for this region. Our findings show distinguishable edge effects and differentiation between burned and unburned forests several decades post-fire, which corresponds to the relatively slow accumulation of biomass for this ecosystem post-fire. These findings show the utility of UAV data for NDVI in this region as a tool for quantifying and monitoring the post-fire vegetation dynamics in Cajander larch forests.