Tree distributions across continents indicate three distinct stable states in tree cover―forest, savanna, and treeless.

The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern^1–3. For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the system¹. Long existing feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are being replaced by novel feedbacks that modify ecosystem resilience, increasing the risk of critical transition. Here we analyse existing evidence for five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests, as well as potential critical thresholds of those drivers that, if crossed, could trigger local, regional or even biome-wide forest collapse. By combining spatial information on various disturbances, we estimate that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances that may trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and potentially exacerbate regional climate change. Using examples of disturbed forests across the Amazon, we identify the three most plausible ecosystem trajectories, involving different feedbacks and environmental conditions. We discuss how the inherent complexity of the Amazon adds uncertainty about future dynamics, but also reveals opportunities for action. Keeping the Amazon forest resilient in the Anthropocene will depend on a combination of local efforts to end deforestation and degradation and to expand restoration, with global efforts to stop greenhouse gas emissions.

Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation–atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complex-network approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10–13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest.

Although the boreal region is warming twice as fast as the global average, the way in which the vast boreal forests and tundras may respond is poorly understood. Using satellite data, we reveal marked alternative modes in the frequency distributions of boreal tree cover. At the northern end and at the dry continental southern extremes, treeless tundra and steppe, respectively, are the only possible states. However, over a broad intermediate temperature range, these treeless states coexist with boreal forest (∼75% tree cover) and with two more open woodland states (∼20% and ∼45% tree cover). Intermediate tree covers (e.g., ∼10%, ∼30%, and ∼60% tree cover) between these distinct states are relatively rare, suggesting that they may represent unstable states where the system dwells only transiently. Mechanisms for such instabilities remain to be unraveled, but our results have important implications for the anticipated response of these ecosystems to climatic change. The data reveal that boreal forest shows no gradual decline in tree cover toward its limits. Instead, our analysis suggests that it becomes less resilient in the sense that it may more easily shift into a sparse woodland or treeless state. Similarly, the relative scarcity of the intermediate ∼10% tree cover suggests that tundra may shift relatively abruptly to a more abundant tree cover. If our inferences are correct, climate change may invoke massive nonlinear shifts in boreal biomes.

Summary: Tropical ecosystems have the highest levels of biodiversity, cycle more water and absorb more carbon than any other terrestrial ecosystem on Earth. Consequently, these ecosystems are extremely important components of Earth’s climatic system and biogeochemical cycles. Plant hydraulics is an essential discipline to understand and predict the dynamics of tropical vegetation in scenarios of changing water availability. Using published plant hydraulic data we show that the trade‐off between drought avoidance (expressed as deep‐rooting, deciduousness and capacitance) and hydraulic safety (P50 – the water potential when plants lose 50% of their maximum hydraulic conductivity) is a major axis of physiological variation across tropical ecosystems. We also propose a novel and independent axis of hydraulic trait variation linking vulnerability to hydraulic failure (expressed as the hydraulic safety margin (HSM)) and growth, where inherent fast‐growing plants have lower HSM compared to slow‐growing plants. We surmise that soil nutrients are fundamental drivers of tropical community assembly determining the distribution and abundance of the slow‐safe/fast‐risky strategies. We conclude showing that including either the growth‐HSM or the resistance‐avoidance trade‐off in models can make simulated tropical rainforest communities substantially more vulnerable to drought than similar communities without the trade‐off. These results suggest that vegetation models need to represent hydraulic trade‐off axes to accurately project the functioning and distribution of tropical ecosystems.