Objective: Gray matter (GM) atrophy occurs in all multiple sclerosis (MS) phenotypes. We investigated whether there is a spatiotemporal pattern of GM atrophy that is associated with faster disability accumulation in MS.Methods: We analyzed 3,604 brain high‐resolution T1‐weighted magnetic resonance imaging scans from 1,417 participants: 1,214 MS patients (253 clinically isolated syndrome [CIS], 708 relapsing‐remitting [RRMS], 128 secondary‐progressive [SPMS], and 125 primary‐progressive [PPMS]), over an average follow‐up of 2.41 years (standard deviation [SD] = 1.97), and 203 healthy controls (HCs; average follow‐up = 1.83 year; SD = 1.77), attending seven European centers. Disability was assessed with the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). We obtained volumes of the deep GM (DGM), temporal, frontal, parietal, occipital and cerebellar GM, brainstem, and cerebral white matter. Hierarchical mixed models assessed annual percentage rate of regional tissue loss and identified regional volumes associated with time‐to‐EDSS progression.Results: SPMS showed the lowest baseline volumes of cortical GM and DGM. Of all baseline regional volumes, only that of the DGM predicted time‐to‐EDSS progression (hazard ratio = 0.73; 95% confidence interval, 0.65, 0.82; p < 0.001): for every standard deviation decrease in baseline DGM volume, the risk of presenting a shorter time to EDSS worsening during follow‐up increased by 27%. Of all longitudinal measures, DGM showed the fastest annual rate of atrophy, which was faster in SPMS (–1.45%), PPMS (–1.66%), and RRMS (–1.34%) than CIS (–0.88%) and HCs (–0.94%; p < 0.01). The rate of temporal GM atrophy in SPMS (–1.21%) was significantly faster than RRMS (–0.76%), CIS (–0.75%), and HCs (–0.51%). Similarly, the rate of parietal GM atrophy in SPMS (–1.24‐%) was faster than CIS (–0.63%) and HCs (–0.23%; all p values <0.05). Only the atrophy rate in DGM in patients was significantly associated with disability accumulation (beta = 0.04; p < 0.001).Interpretation: This large, multicenter and longitudinal study shows that DGM volume loss drives disability accumulation in MS, and that temporal cortical GM shows accelerated atrophy in SPMS than RRMS. The difference in regional GM atrophy development between phenotypes needs to be taken into account when evaluating treatment effect of therapeutic interventions. Ann Neurol 2018;83:210–222

See Stankoff and Louapre (doi: 10.1093/brain/awy114 ) for a scientific commentary on this article. Grey matter atrophy is present from the earliest stages of multiple sclerosis, but its temporal ordering is poorly understood. We aimed to determine the sequence in which grey matter regions become atrophic in multiple sclerosis and its association with disability accumulation. In this longitudinal study, we included 1417 subjects: 253 with clinically isolated syndrome, 708 with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, 128 with secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis, 125 with primary-progressive multiple sclerosis, and 203 healthy control subjects from seven European centres. Subjects underwent repeated MRI (total number of scans 3604); the mean follow-up for patients was 2.41 years (standard deviation = 1.97). Disability was scored using the Expanded Disability Status Scale. We calculated the volume of brain grey matter regions and brainstem using an unbiased within-subject template and used an established data-driven event-based model to determine the sequence of occurrence of atrophy and its uncertainty. We assigned each subject to a specific event-based model stage, based on the number of their atrophic regions. Linear mixed-effects models were used to explore associations between the rate of increase in event-based model stages, and T₂ lesion load, disease-modifying treatments, comorbidity, disease duration and disability accumulation. The first regions to become atrophic in patients with clinically isolated syndrome and relapse-onset multiple sclerosis were the posterior cingulate cortex and precuneus, followed by the middle cingulate cortex, brainstem and thalamus. A similar sequence of atrophy was detected in primary-progressive multiple sclerosis with the involvement of the thalamus, cuneus, precuneus, and pallidum, followed by the brainstem and posterior cingulate cortex. The cerebellum, caudate and putamen showed early atrophy in relapse-onset multiple sclerosis and late atrophy in primary-progressive multiple sclerosis. Patients with secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis showed the highest event-based model stage (the highest number of atrophic regions, P < 0.001) at the study entry. All multiple sclerosis phenotypes, but clinically isolated syndrome, showed a faster rate of increase in the event-based model stage than healthy controls. T₂ lesion load and disease duration in all patients were associated with increased event-based model stage, but no effects of disease-modifying treatments and comorbidity on event-based model stage were observed. The annualized rate of event-based model stage was associated with the disability accumulation in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, independent of disease duration (P < 0.0001). The data-driven staging of atrophy progression in a large multiple sclerosis sample demonstrates that grey matter atrophy spreads to involve more regions over time. The sequence in which regions become atrophic is reasonably consistent across multiple sclerosis phenotypes. The spread of atrophy was associated with disease duration and with disability accumulation over time in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) can be divided into four phenotypes based on clinical evolution. The pathophysiological boundaries of these phenotypes are unclear, limiting treatment stratification. Machine learning can identify groups with similar features using multidimensional data. Here, to classify MS subtypes based on pathological features, we apply unsupervised machine learning to brain MRI scans acquired in previously published studies. We use a training dataset from 6322 MS patients to define MRI-based subtypes and an independent cohort of 3068 patients for validation. Based on the earliest abnormalities, we define MS subtypes as cortex-led, normal-appearing white matter-led, and lesion-led. People with the lesion-led subtype have the highest risk of confirmed disability progression (CDP) and the highest relapse rate. People with the lesion-led MS subtype show positive treatment response in selected clinical trials. Our findings suggest that MRI-based subtypes predict MS disability progression and response to treatment and may be used to define groups of patients in interventional trials.

Objective: During the natural course of multiple sclerosis (MS), the brain is exposed to aging as well as disease effects. Brain aging can be modeled statistically; the so‐called “brain‐age” paradigm. Here, we evaluated whether brain‐predicted age difference (brain‐PAD) was sensitive to the presence of MS, clinical progression, and future outcomes.Methods: In a longitudinal, multicenter sample of 3,565 magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans, in 1,204 patients with MS and clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) and 150 healthy controls (mean follow‐up time: patients 3.41 years, healthy controls 1.97 years), we measured “brain‐predicted age” using T1‐weighted MRI. We compared brain‐PAD among patients with MS and patients with CIS and healthy controls, and between disease subtypes. Relationships between brain‐PAD and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) were explored.Results: Patients with MS had markedly higher brain‐PAD than healthy controls (mean brain‐PAD +10.3 years; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 8.5–12.1] versus 4.3 years; 95% CI = 2.1 to 6.4; p < 0.001). The highest brain‐PADs were in secondary‐progressive MS (+13.3 years; 95% CI = 11.3–15.3). Brain‐PAD at study entry predicted time‐to‐disability progression (hazard ratio 1.02; 95% CI = 1.01–1.03; p < 0.001); although normalized brain volume was a stronger predictor. Greater annualized brain‐PAD increases were associated with greater annualized EDSS score (r = 0.26; p < 0.001).Interpretation: The brain‐age paradigm is sensitive to MS‐related atrophy and clinical progression. A higher brain‐PAD at baseline was associated with more rapid disability progression and the rate of change in brain‐PAD related to worsening disability. Potentially, “brain‐age” could be used as a prognostic biomarker in early‐stage MS, to track disease progression or stratify patients for clinical trial enrollment. ANN NEUROL 2020 ANN NEUROL 2020;88:93–105

Progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA), a recent concept to formalize disability accrual in multiple sclerosis (MS) independent of relapses, has gained popularity as a potential clinical trial outcome. We discuss its shortcomings and appraise the challenges of implementing it in clinical settings, experimental trials, and research. The current definition of PIRA assumes that acute inflammation, which can manifest as a relapse, and neurodegeneration, manifesting as progressive disability accrual, can be disentangled by introducing specific time windows between the onset of relapses and the observed increase in disability. The term PIRMA (progression independent of relapse and MRI activity) was recently introduced to indicate disability accrual in the absence of both clinical relapses and new brain and spinal cord MRI lesions. Assessing PIRMA in clinical practice is highly challenging because it necessitates frequent clinical assessments and brain and spinal cord MRI scans. PIRA is commonly assessed using Expanded Disability Status Scale, a scale heavily weighted toward motor disability, whereas a more granular assessment of disability deterioration, including cognitive decline, using composite measures or other tools, such as digital tools, would possess greater utility. Similarly, using PIRA as an outcome measure in randomized clinical trials is also challenging and requires methodological considerations. The underpinning pathobiology of disability accumulation, that is not associated with relapses, may encompass chronic active lesions (slowly expanding lesions and paramagnetic rim lesions), cortical lesions, brain and spinal cord atrophy, particularly in the gray matter, diffuse and focal microglial activation, persistent leptomeningeal enhancement, and white matter tract damage. We propose to use PIRA to understand the main determinant of disability accrual in observational, cohort studies, where regular MRI scans are not included, and introduce the term of "advanced-PIRMA" to investigate the contributions to disability accrual of the abovementioned processes, using conventional and advanced imaging. This is supported by the knowledge that MRI reflects the MS pathogenic mechanisms better than purely clinical descriptors. Any residual disability accrual, which remains unexplained after considering all these mechanisms with imaging, will highlight future research priorities to help complete our understanding of MS pathogenesis.