Significance: Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an emerging, zoonotic hemorrhagic fever, affecting mainly livestock and humans in Africa. Despite its growing global concern, the impact of control measures on epidemic dynamics using empirical data has not been assessed. By combining a unique RVF epidemic dataset covering both livestock and human data in a closed ecosystem (Mayotte island) with a dynamic model, we estimate viral transmission potential among livestock, and from livestock to humans. We also quantify the impact of vaccination in decreasing the epidemic size. We demonstrate that reactive livestock vaccination is key. We present a reference case study for RVF and illustrate the value of a One Health quantitative approach to surveillance and control of zoonotic infectious diseases.

The island of Mayotte is a department of France, an outermost region of the European Union located in the Indian Ocean between Madagascar and the coast of Eastern Africa. Due to its close connection to the African mainland and neighbouring islands, the island is under constant threat of introduction of infectious diseases of both human and animal origin. Here, using social network analysis and mathematical modelling, we assessed potential implications of livestock movements between communes in Mayotte for risk-based surveillance. Our analyses showed that communes in the central region of Mayotte acted as a hub in the livestock movement network. The majority of livestock movements occurred between communes in the central region and from communes in the central region to those in the outer region. Also, communes in the central region were more likely to be infected earlier than those in the outer region when the spread of an exotic infectious disease was simulated on the livestock movement network. The findings of this study, therefore, suggest that communes in the central region would play a major role in the spread of infectious diseases via livestock movements, which needs to be considered in the design of risk-based surveillance systems in Mayotte.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne viral disease of major animal and public health importance. In 2018–19, it caused an epidemic in both livestock and human populations of the island of Mayotte. Using Bayesian modelling approaches, we assessed the spatio-temporal pattern of RVF virus (RVFV) infection in livestock and human populations across the island, and factors shaping it. First, we assessed if (i) livestock movements, (ii) spatial proximity from communes with infected animals, and (iii) livestock density were associated with the temporal sequence of RVFV introduction into Mayotte communes’ livestock populations. Second, we assessed whether the rate of human infection was associated with (a) spatial proximity from and (b) livestock density of communes with infected animals. Our analyses showed that the temporal sequence of RVFV introduction into communes’ livestock populations was associated with livestock movements and spatial proximity from communes with infected animals, with livestock movements being associated with the best model fit. Moreover, the pattern of human cases was associated with their spatial proximity from communes with infected animals, with the risk of human infection sharply increasing if livestock in the same or close communes were infected. This study highlights the importance of understanding livestock movement networks in informing the design of risk-based RVF surveillance programs.

Mayotte is an island located in the Mozambique Channel, between Mozambique and Madagascar, in the South Western Indian Ocean region. A severe syndrome of unknown aetiology has been observed seasonally since 2009 in cattle (locally named “cattle flu”), associated with anorexia, nasal discharge, hyperthermia and lameness. We sampled blood from a panel of those severely affected animals at the onset of disease signs and analysed these samples by next-generation sequencing. We first identified the presence of ephemeral bovine fever viruses (BEFV), an arbovirus belonging to the genus Ephemerovirus within the family Rhabdoviridae, thus representing the first published sequences of BEFV viruses of African origin. In addition, we also discovered and genetically characterized a potential new species within the genus Ephemerovirus, called Mavingoni virus (MVGV) from one diseased animal. Finally, both MVGV and BEFV have been identified in cattle from the same herd, evidencing a co-circulation of different ephemeroviruses on the island. The clinical, epidemiological and virological information strongly suggests that these viruses represent the etiological agents of the observed “cattle flu” within this region. This study highlights the importance of the strengthening and harmonizing arboviral surveillance in Mayotte and its neighbouring areas, including Africa mainland, given the importance of the diffusion of infectious diseases (such as BEFV) mediated by animal and human movements in the South Western Indian Ocean area.

Background: Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a zoonosis that affects large parts of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. RVF virus (RVFV) is transmitted to humans through contacts with infected animals, animal products, mosquito bites or aerosols. Its pathogenesis in humans ranges from asymptomatic forms to potentially deadly haemorrhagic fevers, and the true burden of human infections during outbreaks is generally unknown.Methods: We build a model fitted to both passive surveillance data and serological data collected throughout a RVF epidemic that occurred in Mayotte Island in 2018–2019.Results: We estimate that RVFV infected 10,797 (95% CrI 4,728–16,127) people aged ≥15 years old in Mayotte during the entire outbreak, among which only 1.2% (0.67%–2.2%) were reported to the syndromic surveillance system. RVFV IgG seroprevalence in people ≥15 years old was estimated to increase from 5.5% (3.6%–7.7%) before the outbreak to 12.9% (10.4%–16.3%) thereafter.Conclusions: Our results suggest that a large part of RVFV infected people present subclinical forms of the disease and/or do not reach medical care that could lead to their detection by the surveillance system. This may threaten the implementation of exhaustive RVF surveillance and adequate control programs in affected countries.