African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) is an international project to improve our knowledge and understanding of the West African monsoon (WAM) and its variability with an emphasis on daily-to-interannual time scales. AMMA is motivated by an interest in fundamental scientific issues and by the societal need for improved prediction of the WAM and its impacts on West African nations. Recognizing the societal need to develop strategies that reduce the socioeconomic impacts of the variability of the WAM, AMMA will facilitate the multidisciplinary research required to provide improved predictions of the WAM and its impacts. This will be achieved and coordinated through the following five international working groups: i) West African monsoon and global climate, ii) water cycle, iii) surface–atmosphere feedbacks, iv) prediction of climate impacts, and v) high-impact weather prediction and predictability. AMMA promotes the international coordination of ongoing activities, basic research, and a... Abstract African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) is an international project to improve our knowledge and understanding of the West African monsoon (WAM) and its variability with an emphasis on daily-to-interannual time scales. AMMA is motivated by an interest in fundamental scientific issues and by the societal need for improved prediction of the WAM and its impacts on West African nations. Recognizing the societal need to develop strategies that reduce the socioeconomic impacts of the variability of the WAM, AMMA will facilitate the multidisciplinary research required to provide improved predictions of the WAM and its impacts. This will be achieved and coordinated through the following five international working groups: i) West African monsoon and global climate, ii) water cycle, iii) surface–atmosphere feedbacks, iv) prediction of climate impacts, and v) high-impact weather prediction and predictability. AMMA promotes the international coordination of ongoing activities, basic research, and a...

This paper presents the Meso-NH model version 5.4. Meso-NH is an atmospheric non hydrostatic research model that is applied to a broad range of resolutions, from synoptic to turbulent scales, and is designed for studies of physics and chemistry. It is a limited-area model employing advanced numerical techniques, including monotonic advection schemes for scalar transport and fourth-order centered or odd-order WENO advection schemes for momentum. The model includes state-of-the-art physics parameterization schemes that are important to represent convective-scale phenomena and turbulent eddies, as well as flows at larger scales. In addition, Meso-NH has been expanded to provide capabilities for a range of Earth system prediction applications such as chemistry and aerosols, electricity and lightning, hydrology, wildland fires, volcanic eruptions, and cyclones with ocean coupling. Here, we present the main innovations to the dynamics and physics of the code since the pioneer paper of Lafore et al. (1998) and provide an overview of recent applications and couplings.

As part of the EUROCS (EUROpean Cloud Systems study) project, cloud‐resolving model (CRM) simulations and parallel single‐column model (SCM) tests of the sensitivity of moist atmospheric convection to midtropospheric humidity are presented. This sensitivity is broadly supported by observations and some previous model studies, but is still poorly quantified. Mixing between clouds and environment is a key mechanism, central to many of the fundamental differences between convection schemes.Here, we define an idealized quasi‐steady ‘testbed’, in which the large‐scale environment is assumed to adjust the local mean profiles on a timescale of one hour. We then test sensitivity to the target profiles at heights above 2 km.Two independent CRMs agree reasonably well in their response to the different background profiles and both show strong deep precipitating convection in the more moist cases, but only shallow convection in the driest case. The CRM results also appear to be numerically robust. All the SCMs, most of which are one‐dimensional versions of global climate models (GCMs), show sensitivity to humidity but differ in various ways from the CRMs. Some of the SCMs are improved in the light of these comparisons, with GCM improvements documented elsewhere. © Crown copyright, 2004.

In the context of the European Cloud Systems project, the problem of the simulation of the diurnal cycle of convective precipitation over land is addressed with the aid of cloud‐resolving (CRM) and single‐column (SCM) model simulations of an idealized midlatitude case for which observations of large‐scale and surface forcing are available. The CRM results are compared to different versions of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) convection schemes using different convective trigger procedures and convective closures. In the CRM, maximum rainfall intensity occurs at 15 h (local time). In this idealized midlatitude case, most schemes do not reproduce the afternoon precipitation peak, as (i) they cannot reproduce the gradual growth (typically over 3 hours) of the deep convective cloud layer and (ii) they produce a diurnal cycle of precipitation that is in phase with the diurnal cycle of the convective available potential energy (CAPE) and the convective inhibition (CIN), consistent with the parcel theory and CAPE closure used in the bulk mass‐flux scheme. The scheme that links the triggering to the large‐scale vertical velocity gets the maximum precipitation at the right time, but this may be artificial as the vertical velocity is enforced in the single‐column context.The study is then extended to the global scale using ensembles of 72‐hour global forecasts at resolution T511 (40 km), and long‐range single 40‐day forecasts at resolution T159 (125 km) with the ECMWF general‐circulation model. The focus is on tropical South America and Africa where the diurnal cycle is most pronounced. The forecasts are evaluated against analyses and observed radiosonde data, as well as observed surface and satellite‐derived rainfall rates. The ECMWF model version with improved convective trigger produces the smallest biases overall. It also shifts the rainfall maximum to 12 h compared to 9.5 h in the original version. In contrast to the SCM, the vertical‐velocity‐dependent trigger does not further improve the phase of the diurnal cycle. However, further work is necessary to match the observed 15 h precipitation peak. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society

The present assessment of the West African monsoon in the models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) indicates little evolution since the third phase of CMIP (CMIP3) in terms of both biases in present-day climate and climate projections.The outlook for precipitation in twenty-first-century coupled simulations exhibits opposite responses between the westernmost and eastern Sahel. The spread in the trend amplitude, however, remains large in both regions. Besides, although all models predict a spring and summer warming of the Sahel that is 10%–50% larger than the global warming, their temperature response ranges from 0 to 7 K.CMIP5 coupled models underestimate the monsoon decadal variability, but SST-imposed simulations succeed in capturing the recent partial recovery of monsoon rainfall. Coupled models still display major SST biases in the equatorial Atlantic, inducing a systematic southward shift of the monsoon. Because of these strong biases, the monsoon is further evaluated in SST-imposed simulations along the 10°W–10°E African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) transect, across a range of time scales ranging from seasonal to intraseasonal and diurnal fluctuations.The comprehensive set of observational data now available allows an in-depth evaluation of the monsoon across those scales, especially through the use of high-frequency outputs provided by some CMIP5 models at selected sites along the AMMA transect. Most models capture many features of the African monsoon with varying degrees of accuracy. In particular, the simulation of the top-of-atmosphere and surface energy balances, in relation with the cloud cover, and the intermittence and diurnal cycle of precipitation demand further work to achieve a reasonable realism.

An idealized case‐study has been designed to investigate the modelling of the diurnal cycle of deep precipitating convection over land. A simulation of this case was performed by seven single‐column models (SCMs) and three cloud‐resolving models (CRMs). Within this framework, a quick onset of convective rainfall is found in most SCMs, consistent with the results from general‐circulation models. In contrast, CRMs do not predict rainfall before noon. A joint analysis of the results provided by both types of model indicates that convection occurs too early in most SCMs, due to crude triggering criteria and quick onsets of convective precipitation. In the CRMs, the first clouds appear before noon, but surface rainfall is delayed by a few hours to several hours. This intermediate stage, missing in all SCMs except for one, is characterized by a gradual moistening of the free troposphere and an increase of cloud‐top height. Later on, convective downdraughts efficiently cool and dry the boundary layer (BL) in the CRMs. This feature is also absent in most SCMs, which tend to adjust towards more unstable states, with moister (and often more cloudy) low levels and a drier free atmosphere. This common behaviour of most SCMs with respect to deep moist convective processes occurs even though each SCM simulates a different diurnal cycle of the BL and atmospheric stability. The scatter among the SCMs results from the wide variety of representations of BL turbulence and moist convection in these models. Greater consistency is found among the CRMs, despite some differences in their representation of the daytime BL growth, which are linked to their parametrizations of BL turbulence and/or resolution. © Royal Meteorological Society, 2004. J. C. Petch's contribution is Crown copyright