The present study is an effort to deepen the understanding of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) on decadal to multi-decadal timescales. We use ensemble simulations for the period AD 1600–2000 carried out by the coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry-Climate Model (AOCCM) SOCOL-MPIOM. Firstly, the SOCOL-MPIOM is evaluated using observational and reanalyses datasets. The model is able to realistically simulate the ISMR as well as relevant patterns of sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation. Further, the influence of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on ISMR is realistically simulated. Secondly, we investigate the impact of internal climate variability and external climate forcings on ISMR on decadal to multi-decadal timescales over the past 400 years. The results show that AMO, PDO, and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) play a considerable role in controlling the wet and dry decades of ISMR. Resembling observational findings most of the dry decades of ISMR occur during a negative phase of AMO and a simultaneous positive phase of PDO. The observational and simulated datasets reveal that on decadal to multi-decadal timescales the ISMR has consistent negative correlation with PDO whereas its correlation with AMO and TSI is not stationary over time.

The present study assesses the climate of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in detail, focusing on the historical and future warming trends in the region. The assessment incorporates data from observations, reanalyses, and statistically downscaled climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6. Since the pre‐industrial era, the observed average climate in the MENA has warmed by 1.5°C and is on the brink of exceeding 2°C. The reanalysis data suggest that the regional warming over some MENA sub‐regions is three times faster than the global average. By the end of the 21st century, the Arabian Peninsula is projected to warm to 2.6°C ± 0.57°C and 7.6°C ± 1.53°C under low and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios, respectively. Distinct warming hotspots emerge over the Arabian Peninsula and Algeria in summer and over Mauritania in West Africa and the Elburz Mountains in Iran in winter. The summer hotspot over the Arabian Peninsula has already warmed by more than 2°C and can potentially warm to approximately 9°C under the high‐emission scenario. As global warming progresses to 1.5, 2.0, 3.0, and 4.0°C, the average temperature over the MENA land is projected to increase by 2.3°C ± 0.18°C, 3.0°C ± 0.22°C, 4.6°C ± 0.26°C, and 6.1°C ± 0.31°C, respectively. The 1.5, 2.0, 3.0, and 4.0°C warming levels over the MENA are expected to predate those of the global mean by two or three decades. Natural climate fluctuations also significantly influence the region's warming, contributing to temperature extremes.

Many modelling studies suggest that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), in interaction with the tropical Pacific background climate, will change with rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Solar geoengineering (reducing the solar flux from outer space) has been proposed as a means to counteract anthropogenic climate change. However, the effectiveness of solar geoengineering concerning a variety of aspects of Earth's climate is uncertain. Robust results are particularly challenging to obtain for ENSO because existing geoengineering simulations are too short (typically ∼ 50 years) to detect statistically significant changes in the highly variable tropical Pacific background climate. We here present results from a 1000-year-long solar-geoengineering simulation, G1, carried out with the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model HadCM3L. In agreement with previous studies, reducing the solar irradiance (4 %) to offset global mean surface warming in the model more than compensates the warming in the tropical Pacific that develops in the 4 × CO₂ scenario. We see an overcooling of 0.3 ^∘C and a 0.23 mm d⁻¹ (5 %) reduction in mean rainfall over the tropical Pacific relative to preindustrial conditions in the G1 simulation, owing to the different latitudinal distributions of the shortwave (solar) and longwave (CO₂) forcings. The location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the tropical Pacific, which moved 7.5^∘ southwards under 4 × CO₂, is restored to its preindustrial position. However, other aspects of the tropical Pacific mean climate are not reset as effectively. Relative to preindustrial conditions, in G1 the time-averaged zonal wind stress, zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, and meridional SST gradient are each statistically significantly reduced by around 10 %, and the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) is consistently weakened, resulting in conditions conducive to increased frequency of El Niño events. The overall amplitude of ENSO strengthens by 9 %–10 % in G1, but there is a 65 % reduction in the asymmetry between cold and warm events: cold events intensify more than warm events. Notably, the frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events increases by ca. 60 % and 30 %, respectively, while the total number of El Niño events increases by around 10 %. All of these changes are statistically significant at either 95 or 99 % confidence level. Somewhat paradoxically, while the number of total and extreme events increases, the extreme El Niño events become weaker relative to the preindustrial state, while the extreme La Niña events become even stronger. That is, such extreme El Niño events in G1 become less intense than under preindustrial conditions but also more frequent. In contrast, extreme La Niña events become stronger in G1, which is in agreement with the general overcooling of the tropical Pacific in G1 relative to preindustrial conditions.

The impact of solar variability on weather and climate in central Europe is still not well understood. In this paper we use a new time series of daily weather types to analyse the influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the tropospheric weather of central Europe. We employ a novel, daily weather type classification over the period 1763–2009 and investigate the occurrence frequency of weather types under low, moderate, and high solar activity level. Results show a tendency towards fewer days with westerly and west-southwesterly flow over central Europe under low solar activity. In parallel, the occurrence of northerly and easterly types increases. For the 1958–2009 period, a more detailed view can be gained from reanalysis data. Mean sea level pressure composites under low solar activity also show a reduced zonal flow, with an increase of the mean blocking frequency between Iceland and Scandinavia. Weather types and reanalysis data show that the 11-year solar cycle influences the late winter atmospheric circulation over central Europe with colder (warmer) conditions under low (high) solar activity.

Effects of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) on tropospheric climate are not always strong or they appear only intermittently. Studying them requires long time series of both the QBO and climate variables, which has restricted previous studies to the past 30–50 years. Here we use the benefits of an existing QBO reconstruction back to 1908. We first investigate additional, newly digitized historical observations of stratospheric winds to test the reconstruction. Then we use the QBO time series to analyse atmospheric data sets (reconstructions and reanalyses) as well as the results of coupled ocean–atmosphere–chemistry climate model simulations that were forced with the reconstructed QBO. We investigate effects related to (1) tropical–extratropical interaction in the stratosphere, wave–mean flow interaction and subsequent downward propagation, and (2) interaction between deep tropical convection and stratospheric flow. We generally find weak connections, though some are statistically significant over the 100-year period and consistent with model results. Apparent multidecadal variations in the connection between the QBO and the investigated climate responses are consistent with a small effect in the presence of large variability, with one exception: the imprint on the northern polar vortex, which is seen in recent reanalysis data, is not found in the period 1908–1957. Conversely, an imprint in Berlin surface air temperature is only found in 1908–1957 but not in the recent period. Likewise, in the model simulations both links tend to appear alternatingly, suggesting a more systematic modulation due to a shift in the circulation, for example. Over the Pacific warm pool, we find increased convection during easterly QBO, mainly in boreal winter in observation-based data as well as in the model simulations, with large variability. No QBO effects were found in the Indian monsoon strength or Atlantic hurricane frequency.