Transformation of social-ecological systems due to climate change requires, transformative adaptation responses. We propose the concept of nature’s contribution to adaptation (NCA; previously called adaptation services), to reveal properties of ecosystems that provide options for future livelihoods and adaptation to transformative change. Knowledge about the capacity of ecosystems to supply NCA can inform decisions by revealing options for adaptation. We analysed eight historical and contemporary case studies of transformative adaptation and found that the five cases with medium-high degree of adaptation and use of NCA showed evidence of participative learning and co-production of adaptation options, low values contestation, low power imbalances and well-developed governance arrangements. These variables indicated that communities engaged in adaptation had ownership and agency to change how they thought and acted to implement transformative adaptation. We found the use of NCAs enabled transformative adaptation by helping people overcome current decision constraints imposed by societal values, institutional rules, or knowledge deficits to create novel options and re-frame decision contexts. The NCA concept can be applied to (1) help resolve uncertainties about nature’s contributions to people under environmental change; (2) reveal ecosystem properties of value for adaptation, but which are marginalised in current, dominant knowledge frameworks and decision-making; (3) act as a ‘boundary object’ for participative learning and co-production of adaptation options. Thus, the NCA concept represents a pragmatic, optimistic approach for societal adaptation to ecosystem transformation, countering feelings of despair that accompany the acceptance of irreversible, unavoidable loss of current ecosystem states and associated nature’s contributions to people.

There are significant deficits of investment in climate adaptation and DRR relative to the massive and growing needs, especially as the scope and scale of climate impacts increase. These shortfalls in investment are due to widespread underappreciation of the severity and significance of impending impacts; gaps in credible evidence (data, models, assessment methods) upon which to build convincing investment cases; and limited social, political or legal license or will to act. The ERI initiative is an applied mission-oriented and transdisciplinary R&D program designed to tackle these issues and create more enabling environments for resilience investment. It has been doing so by progressing two transformational change agendas: a) enhancing prevailing and predominant approaches to risk, economic, and financial assessments and decision making, according to 7 propositions outlined in this manuscript (Fig.1; Supplementary Material 1), to incentivise and support decision makers consider the high stakes, uncertain, and dynamic dimensions of systemic risks and opportunities from climate change; and b) building coalitions, networks, and capabilities for driving change and innovation in how systemic risks and investments are governed across sectors, domains, scales, and along value chains. This manuscript briefly describes how the ERI initiative has been progressing these two pathways through a program of multi-scale, place-based projects. We presented stakeholder evaluations of the performance of the alternative or enhanced ERI approaches relative to the status quo.

Hydrocarbon-rich countries face complex challenges in transitioning to renewable energy (RES), particularly in sub-national regions economically dependent on oil, gas, and coal (OGC) extraction and export. This study investigates the regional capacity for the energy transition and the ability to adapt in four OGC-rich countries—Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, South Africa, and Australia—each with distinct governance structures, economic profiles, and RES potentials. Drawing on evolutionary economic geography and elements from Sustainability Transitions theory, we develop a conceptual framework to assess four key factors: OGC dependence, RES expansion, governance mechanisms, and regional planning capabilities. Using expert surveys and probabilistic analysis, we evaluate the current significance and projected future impact of these factors over a 10 year horizon. Results indicate persistent path dependencies and governance constraints in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, whereas Australia demonstrates greater adaptability owing to its federal structure and diversified economy. South Africa, despite decentralised governance, faces infrastructural and financial limitations that hinder transition planning. Across all cases, RES expansion is progressing, but community-level benefits and regional planning remain underdeveloped. Governance emerges as a critical enabler, yet its effectiveness varies widely. The findings highlight the need for enhanced capabilities in polycentric governance, inclusive stakeholder engagement, and integrated regional planning to support just and effective transitions. This comparative analysis emphasises the necessity of aligning national energy strategies, policies, and funding with regional realities and priorities, particularly within carbon-intensive economies. The findings also provide policy-relevant insights to enhance regional adaptability and facilitate energy transitions that adhere to global climate commitments.