Objectives To develop a predictive model for pre-eclampsia based on clinical risk factors for nulliparous women and to identify a subgroup at increased risk, in whom specialist referral might be indicated. Design Prospective multicentre cohort. Setting Five centres in Auckland, New Zealand; Adelaide, Australia; Manchester and London, United Kingdom; and Cork, Republic of Ireland. Participants 3572 “healthy” nulliparous women with a singleton pregnancy from a large international study; data on pregnancy outcome were available for 3529 (99%). Main outcome measure Pre-eclampsia defined as ≥140 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mm Hg, or both, on at least two occasions four hours apart after 20 weeks’ gestation but before the onset of labour, or postpartum, with either proteinuria or any multisystem complication. Preterm pre-eclampsia was defined as women with pre-eclampsia delivered before 37⁺⁰ weeks’ gestation. In the stepwise logistic regression the comparison group was women without pre-eclampsia. Results Of the 3529 women, 186 (5.3%) developed pre-eclampsia, including 47 (1.3%) with preterm pre-eclampsia. Clinical risk factors at 14-16 weeks’ gestation were age, mean arterial blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), family history of pre-eclampsia, family history of coronary heart disease, maternal birth weight, and vaginal bleeding for at least five days. Factors associated with reduced risk were a previous single miscarriage with the same partner, taking at least 12 months to conceive, high intake of fruit, cigarette smoking, and alcohol use in the first trimester. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), under internal validation, was 0.71. Addition of uterine artery Doppler indices did not improve performance (internal validation AUC 0.71). A framework for specialist referral was developed based on a probability of pre-eclampsia generated by the model of at least 15% or an abnormal uterine artery Doppler waveform in a subset of women with single risk factors. Nine per cent of nulliparous women would be referred for a specialist opinion, of whom 21% would develop pre-eclampsia. The relative risk for developing pre-eclampsia and preterm pre-eclampsia in women referred to a specialist compared with standard care was 5.5 and 12.2, respectively. Conclusions The ability to predict pre-eclampsia in healthy nulliparous women using clinical phenotype is modest and requires external validation in other populations. If validated, it could provide a personalised clinical risk profile for nulliparous women to which biomarkers could be added. Trial registration ACTRN12607000551493.

Pre-eclampsia is one of the leading causes of death and disability in mothers and babies. Over four million women worldwide will develop the disorder every year. This book, written by an international team of experts, focuses on both the scientific basis of pre-eclampsia and its management. The basic science section contains reviews of the most exciting research developments in pre-eclampsia. The clinical chapters provide a comprehensive review of the pertinent literature, highlighting data and ideas or developments in management. There is a section in each chapter (where relevant) that deals with practical management, giving clinicians a formulated treatment plan that they can implement directly. The book was originally published in 2007, and will have continuing relevance for all professionals interested in the reproductive sciences, and to obstetricians and physicians with an interest in pre-eclampsia.

Women with a history of 1 or 2 miscarriages or terminations of pregnancy have not been considered to be at risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes in subsequent pregnancies. However, few studies have examined the association between previous pregnancy loss and adverse pregnancy outcomes in subsequent pregnancies; results in the available studies are mixed. It has been suggested that previous use of cervical dilatation and curettage (D&C) for management of first-trimester miscarriage or termination may adversely affect outcomes in subsequent pregnancies. The aim of this prospective cohort study was to determine whether women with a previous miscarriage or termination of pregnancy are at increased risk of spontaneous preterm birth and to determine whether any increased risk is associated with previous use of cervical D&C. Prospective data were obtained for 5575 healthy nulliparous women with singleton pregnancies who were enrolled from 2004 to 2011 in the Screening for Pregnancy Endpoints (SCOPE) study. The primary study outcome was spontaneous preterm birth (spontaneous onset of preterm labor or preterm premature rupture of membranes resulting in preterm birth at less than 37 weeks’ gestation). Secondary outcomes examined included preterm premature rupture of membrane, small for gestational age, birth weight, placental abruption, and preeclampsia. Comparison groups were women with previous pregnancy loss (miscarriage or termination) and women with no previous pregnancy loss (control). Among the 5575 women in the study, 4331 (78%) had no previous pregnancy loss, 974 (17.5%) had 1 early previous pregnancy loss, 249 (4.5%) had 2, and 21 (0.5%) had 3 or 4 losses. A single pregnancy loss was not associated with a significant increase in adverse pregnancy outcomes, whereas 2 to 4 previous losses had an increased risk of spontaneous preterm birth (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.12; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.55–2.90) and/or placental abruption (aOR, 2.30; 95% CI, 1.36–3.89) compared with no previous pregnancy loss. The use of cervical D&C to manage a single previous miscarriage or termination of pregnancy was associated with an increased risk of spontaneous preterm birth (aOR,1.64; 95% CI, 1.08–2.50; 6% absolute risk and aOR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.35–2.48; 7% absolute risk, respectively) compared with no previous pregnancy loss. In contrast, use of a nonsurgical method for management of a single previous miscarriage or termination did not increase the risk of adverse outcomes in a subsequent pregnancy (aOR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.38–1.94; 3.4% absolute risk]; and aOR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.69–1.12; 3.8% absolute risk], respectively). These findings indicate that a single pregnancy loss managed by cervical D&C is associated with an increased risk of spontaneous preterm birth and/or placental abruption. In contrast, a single pregnancy loss managed nonsurgically does not increase the risk, but 2 to 4 losses are associated with increased risk. Further prospective studies are needed to confirm these data and to determine whether nonsurgical management in this population should be preferable to surgical treatment.