Following the foot and mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain (GB) in 2001, livestock movement bans were replaced with mandatory periods of standstill for livestock moving between premises. It was anticipated that these movement restrictions would limit each individual's contact networks, the extent of livestock movements and thus the spread of future disease outbreaks. However, the effect of behaviour changes on the global network in adapting to these restrictions is currently unknown. Here, we take a novel approach using GB cattle movement data to construct week-by-week contact networks between animal holdings (AH) to explore the evolution of the network since this policy was introduced, the first time network theory has been used for this purpose. We show that the number of AH moving cattle as part of the giant strong component (GSC), representing the region of maximal connectivity, has been increasing linearly over time. This is of epidemiological significance as the size of the GSC indicates the number of holdings potentially exposed to disease, thus giving a lower bound of maximum epidemic size. Therefore, despite restriction of cattle movements, emergent behaviour in this self-organizing system has potentially increased the size of infectious disease epidemics within the cattle industry.

Aims: We conducted two short-term studies of cohorts of naturally infected calves to determine the prevalence and concentrations of Escherichia coli O157 shed in faeces. Methods and Results: Two cohorts of calves were sampled; in the first study 14 calves were sampled up to five times a day for 5 days; in the second study a group of 16 separate calves were sampled once or twice a day for 15 days. All cattle within the two cohorts shed E. coli O157 at some point during the respective studies. In 18% of samples, E. coli O157 could only be isolated using immunomagnetic separation after an enrichment period, suggesting concentrations <250 CFU g⁻¹. The highest concentrations recorded were 6·7 × 10⁵ and 1·6 × 10⁶ CFU g⁻¹ for studies 1 and 2 respectively. Conclusions: Persistent, high shedders (shedding >10³ CFU g⁻¹) were evident in both studies but, in the majority of calves, the pathogen was isolated intermittently. Significance and Impact of the Study: The variable patterns of shedding have important implications for the design of appropriate sampling protocols and for gaining meaningful estimates of parameters used in mathematical models of transmission.

To develop and validate a direct plating method applicable to epidemiological studies for enumerating Escherichia coli O157 in cattle faeces. The spiral plate count method was used to enumerate E. coli O157 in faecal samples. The accuracy and variation of counts was then assessed using faecal samples inoculated with E. coli O157. There was good agreement between inoculated levels of E. coli O157 and those recovered from faeces, particularly when counts were > 10(2) CFU g(-1) of faeces. The method was applied to a small study assessing short-term survival of E. coli O157 in naturally infected cattle faeces. E. coli O157 was found to survive in faeces for over 10 days at concentrations above 10(3) CFU g(-1) of faeces. Populations of E. coli O157 were also found to increase 100-fold in the first few hours after defecation. The enumeration method is easy to implement and enables a quick throughput of large numbers of samples. The method is accurate and reliable and enables the inherent variation in count data to be explored but needs to be used in combination with a more sensitive method for samples containing < 10(2) CFU g(-1) of faeces. The method described is appropriate for enumeration of E. coli O157 in cattle faeces in large-scale epidemiological studies.

Cattle faeces are considered the most important reservoir for human infection with Escherichia coli O157. We have previously described shedding of E. coli O157 in the faeces of naturally infected cattle cohorts. However, the data require further investigation to quantify the uncertainty and variability in the estimates previously presented. This paper proposes a method for analysing both the presence and the quantity of E. coli O157 in cattle faecal samples, using two isolation procedures, one of which enumerates E. coli O157. The combination of these two measurements, which are fundamentally different in nature and yet measuring a common outcome, has necessitated the development of a novel statistical model for ascertaining the contribution of the various components of variation (both natural and observation induced) and for judging the influence of explanatory variables. Most of the variation within the sampling hierarchy was attributable to multiple samples from the same animal. The contribution of laboratory-level variation was found to be low. After adjusting for fixed and random effects, short periods of increased intensity of shedding were identified in individual animals. We conclude that within-animal variation is greater than between animals over time, and studies aiming to elucidate the dynamics of shedding should focus resources, sampling more within than between animals. These findings have implications for the identification of persistent high shedders and for assessing their role in the epidemiology of E. coli O157 in cattle populations. The development of this non-standard statistical model may have many applications to other microbial count data.

Background: The accuracy of predicting disease occurrence using epidemic models relies on an understanding of the system or population under investigation. At the time of the Foot and Mouth disease (FMD) outbreak of 2001, there were limited reports in the literature as to the cattle population structure in Britain. In this paper we examine the temporal patterns of cattle births, deaths, imports and movements occurring within Britain, reported to the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) through the British Cattle Movement service (BCMS) during the period 1^st January 2002 to 28^th February 2005. Results: In Britain, the number of reported cattle births exhibit strong seasonality characterised by a large spring peak followed by a smaller autumn peak. Other event types also exhibit strong seasonal trends; both the reported number of cattle slaughtered and "on-farm" cattle deaths increase during the final part of the year. After allowing for seasonal components by smoothing the data, we illustrate that there is very little remaining non-seasonal trend in the number of cattle births, "on-farm" deaths, slaughterhouse deaths, on- and off-movements. However after allowing for seasonal fluctuations the number of cattle imports has been decreasing since 2002. Reporting of movements, births and deaths was more frequent on certain days of the week. For instance, greater numbers of cattle were slaughtered on Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays. Evidence for digit preference was found in the reporting of births and "on-farm" deaths with particular bias towards over reporting on the 1^st, 10^th and 20^th of each month. Conclusion: This study provides insight into the population and movement dynamics of the British cattle population. Although the population is in constant flux, seasonal and long term trends can be identified in the number of reported births, deaths and movements of cattle. Incorporating this temporal variation in epidemic disease modelling may result in more accurate model predictions and may usefully inform future surveillance strategies.