We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon–climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km² for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km² for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (10¹⁵-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon–climate feedback. Significance We applied regional and global-scale biogeochemical models that coupled thaw depth with soil carbon exposure to evaluate the dependence of the evolution of future carbon storage in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change. Our analysis indicates that the northern permafrost region could act as a net sink for carbon under more aggressive climate change mitigation pathways. Under less aggressive pathways, the region would likely act as a source of soil carbon to the atmosphere, but substantial net losses would not occur until after 2100. These results suggest that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon–climate feedback.

Large stocks of soil organic carbon (SOC) have accumulated in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region, but their current amounts and future fate remain uncertain. By analyzing dataset combining >2700 soil profiles with environmental variables in a geospatial framework, we generated spatially explicit estimates of permafrost-region SOC stocks, quantified spatial heterogeneity, and identified key environmental predictors. We estimated that 1014−175+194 Pg C are stored in the top 3 m of permafrost region soils. The greatest uncertainties occurred in circumpolar toe-slope positions and in flat areas of the Tibetan region. We found that soil wetness index and elevation are the dominant topographic controllers and surface air temperature (circumpolar region) and precipitation (Tibetan region) are significant climatic controllers of SOC stocks. Our results provide first high-resolution geospatial assessment of permafrost region SOC stocks and their relationships with environmental factors, which are crucial for modeling the response of permafrost affected soils to changing climate.

Drylands (hyperarid, arid, semiarid, and dry subhumid ecosystems) cover almost half of Earth’s land surface and are highly vulnerable to environmental pressures. Here we provide an inventory of soil properties including carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) stocks within the current boundaries of drylands, aimed at serving as a benchmark in the face of future challenges including increased population, food security, desertification, and climate change. Aridity limits plant production and results in poorly developed soils, with coarse texture, low C:N and C:P, scarce organic matter, and high vulnerability to erosion. Dryland soils store 646 Pg of organic C to 2 m, the equivalent of 32% of the global soil organic C pool. The magnitude of the historic loss of C from dryland soils due to human land use and cover change and their typically low C:N and C:P suggest high potential to build up soil organic matter, but coarse soil textures may limit protection and stabilization processes. Restoring, preserving, and increasing soil organic matter in drylands may help slow down rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide by sequestering C, and is strongly needed to enhance food security and reduce the risk of land degradation and desertification.

The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink‐source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO₂ fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO₂ fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high‐latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO₂ fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO₂ fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km²) across the high‐latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE‐focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO₂ sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹, respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO₂ budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high‐latitude region was on average an annual CO₂ sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.