Generation of Swine Flu: As the newly emerged influenza virus starts its journey to infect the world's human population, the genetic secrets of the 2009 outbreak of swine influenza A(H1N1) are being revealed. In extensive phylogenetic analyses, Garten et al. (p. 197 , published online 22 May) confirm that of the eight elements of the virus, the basic components encoded by the hemagglutinin, nucleoprotein, and nonstructural genes originated in birds and transferred to pigs in 1918. Subsequently, these formed a triple reassortant with the RNA polymerase PB1 that transferred from birds in 1968 to humans and then to pigs in 1998, coupled with RNA polymerases PA and PB2 that transferred from birds to pigs in 1998. The neuraminidase and matrix protein genes that complete the virus came from birds and entered pigs in 1979. The analysis offers insights into drug susceptibility and virulence, as well as raising the possibility of hitherto unknown factors determining host specificity. A significant question is, what is the potential for the H1 component of the current seasonal flu vaccine to act as a booster? Apart from the need for ongoing sequencing to monitor for the emergence of new reassortants, future pig populations need to be closely monitored for emerging influenza viruses.

▪ Abstract Pandemics are the most dramatic presentation of influenza. Three have occurred in the twentieth century: the 1918 H1N1 pandemic, the 1957 H2N2 pandemic, and the 1968 H3N2 pandemic. The tools of molecular epidemiology have been applied in an attempt to determine the origin of pandemic viruses and to understand what made them such successful pathogens. An excellent example of this avenue of research is the recent phylogenetic analysis of genes of the virus that caused the devastating 1918 pandemic. This analysis has been used to identify evolutionarily related influenza virus genes as a clue to the source of the pandemic of 1918. Molecular methods have been used to investigate the avian H5N1 and H9N2 influenza viruses that recently infected humans in Hong Kong. Antigenic, genetic, and epidemiologic analyses have also furthered our understanding of interpandemic influenza. Although many questions remain, advances of the past two decades have demonstrated that several widely held concepts concerning the global epidemiology of influenza were false.

Influenza is the most frequent cause of acute respiratory illness requiring medical intervention because it affects all age groups and because it can recur in any individual. During the past three decades, efforts to prevent and control influenza have focused primarily on the use of inactivated influenza vaccines in elderly people and in individuals with chronic medical conditions that put them at risk for complications. However, the continuing impact of influenza in these and other population groups has motivated the development of novel approaches for prevention and control of influenza. Several important advances in the field of influenza have occurred in the last few years. An experimental live, attenuated, intranasally administered trivalent influenza vaccine was shown to be highly effective in protecting young children against influenza A H3N2 and influenza B. New antiviral drugs based on the structure of the neuraminidase molecule were assessed in clinical trials and found to be effective against influenza A and B viruses. The expected use of these new antiviral agents has accelerated the development of rapid point-of-care diagnostic tests. The availability of new diagnostic tests, new antiviral drugs, and new vaccines will undoubtedly alter our approaches to influenza control and have an impact on clinical practice.

Since 2010 the WHO has held a series of informal consultations to explore ways of improving the currently highly complex and time-pressured influenza vaccine virus selection and development process. In November 2015 experts from around the world met to review the current status of efforts in this field. Discussion topics included strengthening influenza surveillance activities to increase the availability of candidate vaccine viruses and improve the extent, timeliness and quality of surveillance data. Consideration was also given to the development and potential application of newer laboratory assays to better characterize candidate vaccine viruses, the potential importance of antibodies directed against influenza virus neuraminidase, and the role of vaccine effectiveness studies. Advances in next generation sequencing and whole genome sequencing of influenza viruses were also discussed, along with associated developments in synthetic genomics technologies, evolutionary analysis and predictive mathematical modelling. Discussions were also held on the late emergence of an antigenic variant influenza A(H3N2) virus in mid-2014 that could not be incorporated in time into the 2014-15 northern hemisphere vaccine. There was broad recognition that given the current highly constrained influenza vaccine development and production timeline it would remain impossible to incorporate any variant virus which emerged significantly long after the relevant WHO biannual influenza vaccine composition meetings. Discussions were also held on the development of pandemic and broadly protective vaccines, and on associated regulatory and manufacturing requirements and constraints. With increasing awareness of the health and economic burdens caused by seasonal influenza, the ever-present threat posed by zoonotic influenza viruses, and the significant impact of the 2014-15 northern hemisphere seasonal influenza vaccine mismatch, this consultation provided a very timely opportunity to share developments and exchange views. In all areas, a renewed and strengthened emphasis was placed on developing concrete and measurable actions and identifying the key stakeholders responsible for their implementation.