Suicidal thoughts and non-suicidal self-harm are common in adolescents and are strongly associated with suicide attempts. We aimed to identify predictors of future suicide attempts in these high-risk groups. Participants were from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, a population-based birth cohort study in the UK. The sample included 456 adolescents who reported suicidal thoughts and 569 who reported non-suicidal self-harm at 16 years of age. Logistic regression analyses were used to explore associations between a wide range of prospectively recorded risk factors and future suicide attempts, assessed at the age of 21 years. 38 (12%) of 310 participants with suicidal thoughts and 46 (12%) of 380 participants who had engaged in non-suicidal self-harm reported having attempted suicide for the first time by the follow-up at 21 years of age. Among participants with suicidal thoughts, the strongest predictors of transition to attempts were non-suicidal self-harm (odds ratio [OR] 2·78, 95% CI 1·35-5·74; p=0·0059), cannabis use (2·61, 1·11-6·14; p=0·029), other illicit drug use (2·47, 1·02-5·96; p=0·045), exposure to self-harm (family 2·03, 0·93-4·44, p=0·076; friend 1·85, 0·93-3·69, p=0·081), and higher levels of the personality type intellect/openness (1·62, 1·06-2·46; p=0·025). Among participants with non-suicidal self-harm at baseline, the strongest predictors were cannabis use (OR 2·14, 95% CI 1·04-4·41; p=0·038), other illicit drug use (2·17, 1·10-4·27; p=0·025), sleep problems (waking in the night 1·91, 0·95-3·84, p=0·069; insufficient sleep 1·97, 1·02-3·81, p=0·043), and lower levels of the personality type extraversion (0·71, 0·49-1·03; p=0·068). Most adolescents who think about suicide or engage in non-suicidal self-harm will not make an attempt on their life. Many commonly cited risk factors were not associated with transition to suicide attempt among these high-risk groups. Our findings suggest that asking about substance use, non-suicidal self-harm, sleep, personality traits, and exposure to self-harm could inform risk assessments, and might help clinicians to identify which adolescents are at greatest risk of attempting suicide in the future. American Foundation for Suicide Prevention, National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at the University Hospitals Bristol National Health Service Foundation Trust, and the University of Bristol.

Objectives To investigate the mental health, substance use, educational, and occupational outcomes of adolescents who self harm in a general population sample, and to examine whether these outcomes differ according to self reported suicidal intent. Design Population based birth cohort study. Setting Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), a UK birth cohort of children born in 1991-92. Participants Data on lifetime history of self harm with and without suicidal intent were available for 4799 respondents who completed a detailed self harm questionnaire at age 16 years. Multiple imputation was used to account for missing data. Main outcome measures Mental health problems (depression and anxiety disorder), assessed using the clinical interview schedule-revised at age 18 years, self reported substance use (alcohol, cannabis, cigarette smoking, and illicit drugs) at age 18 years, educational attainment at age 16 and 19 years, occupational outcomes at age 19 years, and self harm at age 21 years. Results Participants who self harmed with and without suicidal intent at age 16 years were at increased risk of developing mental health problems, future self harm, and problem substance misuse, with stronger associations for suicidal self harm than for non-suicidal self harm. For example, in models adjusted for confounders the odds ratio for depression at age 18 years was 2.21 (95% confidence interval 1.55 to 3.15) in participants who had self harmed without suicidal intent at age 16 years and 3.94 (2.67 to 5.83) in those who had self harmed with suicidal intent. Suicidal self harm, but not self harm without suicidal intent, was also associated with poorer educational and employment outcomes. Conclusions Adolescents who self harm seem to be vulnerable to a range of adverse outcomes in early adulthood. Risks were generally stronger in those who had self harmed with suicidal intent, but outcomes were also poor among those who had self harmed without suicidal intent. These findings emphasise the need for early identification and treatment of adolescents who self harm.

Suicide is a major cause of premature mortality worldwide, but data on its epidemiology in Africa, the world’s second most populous continent, are limited.

Background: Only one‐third of young people who experience suicidal ideation attempt suicide. It is important to identify factors which differentiate those who attempt suicide from those who experience suicidal ideation but do not act on these thoughts. Methods: Participants were 4,772 members of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children ( ALSPAC ), a UK population‐based birth cohort. Suicide ideation and attempts were assessed at age 16 years via self‐report questionnaire. Multinomial regression was used to examine associations between factors that differentiated adolescents in three groups: no suicidal ideation or attempts, suicidal ideation only and suicide attempts. Analyses were conducted on an imputed data set based on those with complete outcome data (suicidal thoughts and attempts) at age 16 years ( N = 4,772). Results: The lifetime prevalence of suicidal ideation and attempts in the sample was 9.6% and 6.8% respectively. Compared to adolescents who had experienced suicidal ideation, those who attempted suicide were more likely to report exposure to self‐harm in others (adjusted OR for family member self‐harm: 1.95, for friend self‐harm: 2.61 and for both family and friend self‐harm: 5.26). They were also more likely to have a psychiatric disorder (adjusted OR for depression: 3.63; adjusted OR for anxiety disorder: 2.20; adjusted OR for behavioural disorder: 2.90). Other risk factors included female gender, lower IQ , higher impulsivity, higher intensity seeking, lower conscientiousness, a greater number of life events, body dissatisfaction, hopelessness, smoking and illicit drug use (excluding cannabis). Conclusions: The extent of exposure to self‐harm in others and the presence of psychiatric disorder most clearly differentiate adolescents who attempt suicide from those who only experience suicidal ideation. Further longitudinal research is needed to explore whether these risk factors predict progression from suicidal ideation to attempts over time.

There is a lack of consensus about whether self-harm with suicidal intent differs in aetiology and prognosis from non-suicidal self-harm, and whether they should be considered as different diagnostic categories. Participants were 4799 members of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), a UK population-based birth cohort who completed a postal questionnaire on self-harm with and without suicidal intent at age 16 years. Multinomial logistic regression analyses were used to examine differences in the risk factor profiles of individuals who self-harmed with and without suicidal intent. Many risk factors were common to both behaviours, but associations were generally stronger in relation to suicidal self-harm. This was particularly true for mental health problems; compared to those with non-suicidal self-harm, those who had harmed with suicidal intent had an increased risk of depression (OR 3.50[95% CI 1.64, 7.43]) and anxiety disorder (OR 3.50[95% CI 1.72, 7.13]). Higher IQ and maternal education were risk factors for non-suicidal self-harm but not suicidal self-harm. Risk factors that appeared specific to suicidal self-harm included lower IQ and socioeconomic position, physical cruelty to children in the household and parental self-harm. i) There was some loss to follow-up, ii) difficulty in measuring suicidal intent, iii) we cannot rule out the possibility of reverse causation for some exposure variables, iv) we were unable to identify the subgroup that had only ever harmed with suicidal intent. Self-harm with and without suicidal intent are overlapping behaviours but with some distinct characteristics, indicating the importance of fully exploring vulnerability factors, motivations, and intentions in adolescents who self harm.