Bibas Pokhrel

Mr. Bibas Pokhrel

Civil Engineering, Southern Illinois University Carbondale, Carbondale, Colorado, USA
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Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

1Year (2026-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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19 March 2026 in Forecasting
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
RSRoshan Sewa
Roshan Sewa
BPBibas Pokhrel
Bibas Pokhrel
BSBikash Subedi
Bikash Subedi
RKRoshan Karki
Roshan Karki
BPBishal Poudel
Bishal Poudel
Ajay KalraAjay Kalra
Ajay Kalra
Rapid urbanization has transformed the face of Texas by converting agricultural and natural lands into expanding built-up areas. This study analyzes and simulates land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes in Kaufman County, Texas, one of the fastest-growing counties in the United States, using a hybrid Cellular Automata–Artificial Neural Network (CA–ANN) model within the Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS) Modules for Land-Use Change Evaluation (MOLUSCE) framework. Multitemporal NLCD datasets (2001, 2011, and 2021) and six spatial drivers: Elevation, Slope, Aspect, Distance from Roads and Rivers, and Built-up Density were used in the modeling framework. Transition relationships were calibrated using the 2001–2011 LULC data, and the model was validated by simulating the 2021 LULC map from the 2011 baseline. The calibrated model was then used to simulate future LULC scenarios for 2031, 2041, and 2051. Model validation yielded an overall Kappa value of 0.84 and a correctness of 90.9%, indicating high similarity between the observed and simulated maps. The results indicate simulated urban expansion, with built-up areas increasing by nearly 30% by 2051 at the expense of cropland and open areas, with forest and water bodies slightly increasing, and wetlands remaining stagnant. The CA–ANN model effectively captured the nonlinear, spatially dependent land-transition patterns using open-source tools. These findings provided useful information for sustainable land-use planning and environmental management, with the potential to incorporate spatial modeling into regional development strategies in rapidly urbanizing areas of Texas.