The eastern honeybee (Apis cerana) is a keystone pollinator for native ecosystems and agricultural crops in China. However, its distribution faces significant uncertainty due to accelerating climate change. To quantify these risks and inform management strategies, we employed an ensemble species distribution model (Biomod2) integrating ten algorithms to project the suitable habitat of the eastern honeybee under current and future (2060s and 2100s) climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). The ensemble model achieved an excellent predictive performance (AUC > 0.9, TSS > 0.8). The current suitable habitat spans approximately 1.47 million km², primarily south of the Yangtze River. Biomod2 simulation indicates that the precipitation of the wettest month and mean diurnal temperature range are the dominant environmental stressors influencing the shift in the spatial distributions of the eastern honeybee. Comparisons between current and future climate scenarios reveal a distinct trend of spatial range contraction in southern China and a northwestward shift of the habitat centroid. The most severe impact is projected under the SSP585 scenario, with a potential net habitat loss of 42.25% by 2100. We propose a dynamic conservation strategy that prioritizes the protection of southern climate refugia while managing habitat connectivity to facilitate the species’ migration, thereby safeguarding agricultural resilience.

Managed honeybee colonies contribute to agriculture through multiple ecosystem services. However, the contribution of honeybees is often assessed through bee products rather than through the crop pollination services they provide. This study quantified the economic value, relative vulnerability and supply–demand imbalance of honeybee pollination in Chinese agriculture from 2010 to 2024. Using crop production, gross production value, harvested area and managed colony data, combined with crop-specific pollination-dependence coefficients, we estimated pollination function quantity, service value, relative vulnerability, theoretical colony demand and supply gaps. Benchmark pollination service value increased from US$114.27 billion in 2010 to US$247.02 billion in 2024, while pollination-attributable output increased from 203.92 million tonnes to 274.73 million tonnes. In 2024, 36.94% of selected crop value was exposed to pollination dependence, with vegetables and fruits contributing more than 93% of total benchmark value. Effective honeybee supply was estimated at 5.73 million colonies in 2024, resulting in a substantial supply deficit of 68.00 million colonies and a demand-to-effective-supply ratio of 12.88 under the benchmark scenario. Despite sensitivity to colony-use assumptions, the demand–supply gap remained persistent across alternative specifications. These results show that China’s high-value agriculture increasingly depends on pollination services while managed pollination capacity remains far below theoretical demand.