With an increasing interest in offshore wind energy, focus has been directed towards large semi-enclosed basins such as the Baltic Sea as potential sites to set up wind turbines. The meteorology of this inland sea in particular is strongly affected by the surrounding land, creating mesoscale conditions that are important to take into consideration when planning for new wind farms. This paper presents a comparison between data from four state-of-the-art reanalyses (MERRA2, ERA5, UERRA, NEWA) and observations from LiDAR. The comparison is made for four sites in the Baltic Sea with wind profiles up to 300 m. The findings provide insight into the accuracy of reanalyses for wind resource assessment. In general, the reanalyses underestimate the average wind speed. The average shear is too low in NEWA, while ERA5 and UERRA predominantly overestimate the shear. MERRA2 suffers from insufficient vertical resolution, which limits its usefulness in evaluating the wind profile. It is also shown that low-level jets, a very frequent mesoscale phenomenon in the Baltic Sea during late spring, can appear in a wide range of wind speeds. The observed frequency of low-level jets is best captured by UERRA. In terms of general wind characteristics, ERA5, UERRA, and NEWA are similar, and the best choice depends on the application.

Low-level jets (LLJs) are examples of non-logarithmic wind speed profiles affecting wind turbine power production, wake recovery, and structural/aerodynamic loading. However, there is no consensus regarding which definition should be applied for jet identification. In this study we argue that a shear definition is more relevant to wind energy than a falloff definition. The shear definition is demonstrated and validated through the development of a European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) fifth-generation reanalysis (ERA5) LLJ climatology for six sites. Identification of LLJs and their morphology, frequency, and intensity is critically dependent on the (i) vertical window of data from which LLJs are extracted and (ii) the definition employed.

Observations of the wind speed at heights relevant for wind power are sparse, especially offshore, but with emerging aid from advanced statistical methods, it may be possible to derive information regarding wind profiles using surface observations. In this study, two machine learning (ML) methods are developed for predictions of (1) coastal wind speed profiles and (2) low-level jets (LLJs) at three locations of high relevance to offshore wind energy deployment: the US Northeastern Atlantic Coastal Zone, the North Sea, and the Baltic Sea. The ML models are trained on multiple years of lidar profiles and utilize single-level ERA5 variables as input. The models output spatial predictions of coastal wind speed profiles and LLJ occurrence. A suite of nine ERA5 variables are considered for use in the study due to their physics-based relevance in coastal wind speed profile genesis and the possibility to observe these variables in real-time via measurements. The wind speed at 10 $\mathrm{m}\mathrm{a}.\mathrm{s}.\mathrm{l}.$ and the surface sensible heat flux are shown to have the highest importance for both wind speed profile and LLJ predictions. Wind speed profile predictions output by the ML models exhibit similar root mean squared error (RMSE) with respect to observations as is found for ERA5 output. At typical hub heights, the ML models show lower RMSE than ERA5 indicating approximately 5 % RMSE reduction. LLJ identification scores are evaluated using the symmetric extremal dependence index (SEDI). LLJ predictions from the ML models outperform predictions from ERA5, demonstrating markedly higher SEDIs. However, optimization utilizing the SEDI results in a higher number of false alarms when compared to ERA5.

Non-idealized wind profiles frequently occur over the Baltic Sea and are important to take into consideration for offshore wind power, as they affect not only the power production but also the loads on the structure and the behavior of the wake behind the turbine. In this observational study, we classified non-idealized profiles as the following wind profiles having negative shear in at least one part of the lidar wind profile between 28 and 300 m: low-level jets (with a local wind maximum in the profile), profiles with a local minimum and negative profiles. Using observations spanning over 3 years, we show that these non-idealized profiles are common over the Baltic Sea in late spring and summer, with a peak of 40 % relative occurrence in May. Negative profiles (in the 28–300 m layer) mostly occurred during unstable conditions, in contrast to low-level jets that primarily occurred in stable stratification. There were indications that the strong shear zone of low-level jets could cause a relative suppression of the variance for large turbulent eddies compared to the peak of the velocity spectra, in the layer below the jet core. Swell conditions were found to be favorable for the occurrence of negative profiles and profiles with a local minimum, as the waves fed energy into the surface layer, resulting in an increase in the wind speed from below.

One of the most prominent mesoscale phenomena in the coastal zone is the sea-breeze/land-breeze circulation. The pattern and its implications for the weather in coastal areas are well described, and with mesoscale-resolving operational NWP models the circulation can be captured. In this study, a straightforward method to identify sea and land breezes based on the change in wind direction in the column above a grid point on the coastline is presented. The method was tested for southern Sweden using archived output from the HARMONIE-AROME model with promising results, describing both the seasonal and diurnal cycles well. In areas with a complex coastline, such as narrow straits, the concept of the land–sea breeze becomes less clear, and several ways to address this problem for the suggested method are discussed. With an operational index of the sea and land breezes, the forecaster can better understand and express the weather situation and add value for people in the coastal zone. Further, the indices can be used to study systematic biases in the model and to create climatologies of the sea and land breezes. Significance Statement: A wind pattern that is frequently occurring in the coastal zone is the sea-breeze/land-breeze circulation, and the purpose of this study is to test a new method to automatically identify sea breezes and land breezes in weather forecasts. Knowing if a sea breeze or a land breeze is occurring is helpful for the operational weather forecaster in understanding the weather situation. It can also be used to study systematic model behavior, for example, errors in the forecast temperature during sea-breeze conditions. The method has been tested for seven coastal sites in Sweden and shows promising results both in case studies and multiyear statistics.