This study aims to understand and document the occurrence and variability of cloud cover types in West Africa (WA). Investigations are carried out with a 10‐year hourly record of two cloud data products: CERES passive satellite observations and ERA5 reanalysis. The seasonal evolutions of high (HCC), middle (MCC), low (LCC) and total (TCC) cloud cover are examined. Both products agree on the seasonal and spatial occurrence of cloud cover, although CERES presents lower values of cloud fraction than ERA5 which is partly attributed to the inability of the satellite sensor to detect optically thin clouds in the atmosphere. Southern WA is found to be cloudier than other parts of the region in all seasons with mean TCC fractions of 70 and 80% for CERES and ERA5 respectively during the monsoon season. In all seasons, the presence of LCC over large areas of the Sahel/Sahara region is noted in the CERES product. This could be due to a possible misinterpretation of Saharan dust as low clouds which may have thus, caused it to overestimate the occurrences and fractions of LCC over this region. Northern WA is associated with higher frequencies of no cloud occurrence events, unlike the south where cloudless skies are rarely observed. Furthermore, in southern WA, overcast conditions of LCC are observed for a significant number of times (up to 20% of the time during the rainy season in CERES and 40% in ERA5). The climatology of cloud cover presented in this study could be useful for the planning of solar energy projects.

Many solar photovoltaic (PV) energy projects are currently being planned and/or developed in West Africa to sustainably bridge the increasing gap between electricity demand and supply. However, climate change will likely affect solar power generation and the atmospheric factors that control it. For the first time, the state-of-the-art CMIP climate models (CMIP6) are used to investigate the potential future evolution of solar power generation and its main atmospheric drivers in West Africa. A multi-model analyses carried out revealed a decrease of solar PV potential throughout West Africa in the 21st century, with an ensemble mean reduction reaching about 12% in southern parts of the region. In addition, the variability of future solar PV production is expected to increase with a higher frequency of lower production periods. The projected changes in the solar PV production and its variability are expected to be predominant in the June to August season. We found the decrease in the solar PV potential to be driven by a decrease of surface irradiance and an increase of near-surface air temperature. However, the decrease of the surface irradiance accounted for a substantially larger percentage of the projected solar PV potential. The decrease in surface irradiance was further linked to changes in both cloud cover and aerosol presence, although generally much more strongly for the former.

African easterly waves (AEWs) are strongly linked to Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) on the synoptic timescale by serving as seedling disturbances for TC genesis. However, it is unclear whether climatological TC frequency is limited by AEWs. We investigated the impact of suppressing AEWs using a 3‐member ensemble of convection‐permitting regional model simulations, in which AEWs were either retained or removed through the lateral boundary conditions. Suppressing AEWs did not substantially change seasonal TC number, but did influence TC intensity, genesis time and location. Suppressing AEWs produced stronger TCs, shifted peak TC genesis from September to August, and reduced (increased) TC genesis in the eastern Atlantic (Gulf of Mexico). Without AEWs, TCs generated under more favorable large‐scale atmospheric conditions. These results indicate that AEWs may not be reliable predictors of basin‐wide seasonal TC frequency. However, simulations provide evidence that AEWs could influence the large‐scale environment that is important for TCs.

This study focuses on daytime low-level clouds (LLCs) that occur within the first 2 km of the atmosphere over West Africa (WA). These daytime LLCs play a major role in the earth's radiative balance, yet their understanding is still relatively low in WA. We use the state-of-the-art ERA5 dataset to understand their occurrence and associated drivers as well as their impact on the incoming surface solar radiation in the two contrasting Guinean and Sahelian regions of WA. The diurnal cycle of the daytime occurrence of three LLC classes namely No LCC, LLC Class-1 (LLCs with lower fraction), and LLC Class-2 (LLCs with higher fraction) is first studied. The monthly evolutions of hourly and long-lasting LLC (for at least 6 consecutive hours) events are then analyzed as well as the synoptic-scale moisture flux associated with the long-lasting LLC events. Finally, the impact of LLC on the surface heat fluxes and the incoming solar irradiance is investigated. During the summer months in the Guinean region, LLC Class-1 occurrence is low, while LLC Class-2 is frequent (occurrence frequency around 75 % in August). In the Sahel, LLC Class-1 is dominant in the summer months (occurrence frequency more than 80 % from June to October); however the peak occurrence frequency of Class-2 is also in the summer. In both regions, events with No LLC do not present any specific correlation with the time of the day. However, a diurnal evolution that appears to be strongly different from one region to the other is noted for the occurrence of LLC Class-2. LLC occurrence in both regions is associated with high moisture flux driven by strong southwesterly winds from the Gulf of Guinea and significant background moisture levels. LLC Class-2 in particular leads to a significant reduction in the upward transfer of energy and a net downward energy transfer caused by the release of large amounts of energy in the atmosphere during the cloud formation. In July, August, and September (JAS), most of the LLC Class-2 events may likely be the low-level stratiform clouds that occur frequently over the Guinean region, while they may be deep convective clouds in the Sahel. Additionally, LLC Class-2 causes high attenuation of the incoming solar radiation, especially during JAS, where about 49 % and 44 % of the downwelling surface shortwave radiation is lost on average in Guinea and the Sahel, respectively.

In West Africa (WA), interest in solar energy development has risen in recent years with many planned and ongoing projects currently in the region. However, a major drawback to this development in the region is the intense cloud cover that reduces the incoming solar radiation when present and causes fluctuations in solar power production. Therefore, understanding the occurrence of clouds and their link to the surface solar radiation in the region is important for making plans to manage future solar energy production. In this study, we use the state-of-the-art European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts ReAnalysis (ERA5) dataset to examine the occurrence and persistence of cloudy and clear-sky conditions in the region. Then, we investigate the effects of cloud cover on the quantity and variability of the incoming solar radiation. The cloud shortwave radiation attenuation ($CR{A}_{SW}^{\downarrow }$) is used to quantify the amount of incoming solar radiation that is lost due to clouds. The results showed that the attenuation of incoming solar radiation is stronger in all months over the southern part of WA near the Guinea Coast. Across the whole region, the maximum attenuation occurs in August, with a mean $CR{A}_{SW}^{\downarrow }$ of about 55% over southern WA and between 20% and 35% in the Sahelian region. Southern WA is characterized by a higher occurrence of persistent cloudy conditions, while the Sahel region and northern WA are associated with frequent clear-sky conditions. Nonetheless, continuous periods with extremely low surface solar radiation were found to be few over the whole region. The analysis also showed that the surface solar radiation received from November to April only varies marginally from one year to the other. However, there is a higher uncertainty during the core of the monsoon season (June to October) with regard to the quantity of incoming solar radiation. The results obtained show the need for robust management plans to ensure the long-term success of solar energy projects in the region.