Climate change and anthropogenic pressure are increasingly modifying and interfering with ecosystem functions and limiting the delivery of ecosystem products, livelihoods, and adaptive response capacity in many developing countries. We identify measures by which local people in the semi-arid Limpopo Basin part of Botswana are responding to climate change and fluctuations in ecosystem products and examine socio-economic attributes of households influencing their adoption and discuss their adequacy. Our study used a case study of Bobirwa sub-district and employed key informant and household interviews to collect qualitative and quantitative data. Thematic analysis was used to analyze textural data from key informant interviews while frequencies, proportions, and Chi-squared tests were used to analyze the adoption of different strategies. A multinomial logit (MNL) regression was used to analyze the influence of several social, demographic, and economic attributes of households on household adaptation choices. We attributed the high adoption of on-farm adaptations to the simultaneous influence of more severe droughts and the free input support through the government’s Integrated Support Programme for Arable Agriculture (ISPAAD). Our findings suggest that current adaptations were inadequate and implementation of the ISPAAD programme required fine-tuning to be more effective. Results of the MNL regression provide critical information on the barriers and enablers of adaptation in the sub-district yet offer important entry points for improving current adaptations. Therefore, the government needs to put measures that encourage investments in the processing of ecosystem products in rural areas to broaden the livelihood base and possibly reduce overdependence on rainfed agriculture. However, the extent to which this can be achieved depends on the level of government commitment to supporting local initiatives to addressing the climate change threat.

Ecosystems in semi-arid areas remain essential to securing livelihoods and aiding climate change adaptation. However, land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) is the leading driver of biodiversity, ecosystem services, habitat, and ecosystem loss in most rural areas of developing countries. We evaluated LULCC in the Bobirwa sub-district of Botswana between 1995 and 2015. We employed the supervised classification’s maximum likelihood algorithm on the 1995, 2005, and 2016 Landsat images to establish the implications of LULCC on the delivery of provisioning ecosystem services (ES) and ecosystem-based adaptation in the Limpopo Basin part of Botswana. Five major LULC classes—vegetation, cropland, bare land, built-up areas, and water bodies—were identified in the sub-district. The decline in vegetation by 50.67 km²/year between 1995 and 2016 was characterized by an increase in croplands (34.02 km²/year). These changes were attributed to the growing human population that induced farming households to expand croplands. Government programs also encouraged agricultural expansions by offering free inputs and compensating smallholder farmers for land preparation. Higher agricultural yields remained critically low while the loss of vegetated areas to croplands threatened biodiversity, habitats, and the sustainability of provisioning ES through impaired ecosystem functions. There is an urgent need to arrest all unnecessary agricultural expansions and enhance agricultural productivity from current land parcels. The government and other relevant stakeholders also need to strengthen the ecosystem management capacities of local communities and support them to develop and implement biodiversity-based village action plans. Engaging communities through participatory, biodiversity-based action planning promotes biodiversity conservation and the sustainable use of ecosystem resources.

Purpose: Between 2006 and 2016, local communities in semi-arid Bobirwa sub-district in the Limpopo Basin part of Botswana had endured notable fluctuations in the delivery of critical ecosystem services. These changes have been coupled with adverse effects on local people’s livelihood options and well-being. However, a few such studies have focussed on the semi-arid to arid landscapes. This study therefore aims to provide recent knowledge and evidence of consequences of environmental change on semi-arid arid landscapes and communities.Methodology: To examine these recent changes in key ecosystem services, the authors conducted six participatory mapping processes, eight key informant interviews and several rapid scoping appraisals in three study villages. The analyses were centred on changes in seasonal quantities, seasonality, condition of ecosystem service sites, distance to ecosystem service sites and total area providing these services. Drivers of change in the delivery of key ecosystem services and the associated adverse impacts on human well-being of these recent changes in bundles of ecosystem services delivered were also analyzed.Findings: Results show that adverse weather conditions, drought frequency, changes in land-use and/or land-cover together with unsustainable harvesting because of human influx on local resources have intensified in the past decade. There was circumstantial evidence that these drivers have resulted in adverse changes in quantities and seasonality of key ecosystem services such as edible Mopane caterpillars, natural pastures, wild fruits and cultivated crops. Similarly, distance to, condition and total area of sites providing some of the key ecosystem services such as firewood and natural pastures changed adversely. These adverse changes in the key ecosystem services were shown to increasingly threaten local livelihoods and human well-being.Research limitations/implications: This paper discusses the importance of engaging rural communities in semi-arid areas in a participatory manner and how such information can provide baseline information for further research. The paper also shows the utility of such processes and information toward integrating community values and knowledge into decisions regarding the management and utilization of local ecosystem services under a changing climate in data-poor regions such as the Bobirwa sub-district of Botswana. However, the extent to which this is possible depends on the decision makers’ willingness to support local initiatives through existing government structures and programmes.Originality/value: This study shows the importance of engaging communities in a participatory manner to understand changes in local ecosystem services considering their unique connection with the natural environment. This is a critical step for decision makers toward integrating community values in the management and utilization of ecosystem services under a changing climate as well as informing more sustainable adaptive responses in semi-arid areas. However, the extent to which decision makers can integrate such findings to inform more sustainable responses to declining capacity of local ecosystems in semi-arid areas depends on how they value the bottom-up approach of gaining local knowledge as well as their willingness to support local initiatives through existing government structures and programmes.

Ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction (Eco-DRR) is gaining momentum globally and is also considered to enhance climate change adaptation and sustainable transition to a low-carbon economy in South Africa. However, there is little evidence regarding how the approach is applied at the local level. It also remains unclear to what extent the approach is integrated into local development planning and what opportunities exist for further integration in rural areas. Therefore, our study examined opportunities for mainstreaming Eco-DRR into local development planning in South Africa. Fourteen integrated development plans from ‘mostly rural’ local municipalities in Limpopo Province were systematically assessed to understand the process of mainstreaming Eco-DRR into their current development plans under the following aspects: localized climate trends, hydroclimatic risks considered, risk and vulnerability assessments, disaster risk reduction (DRR) actions, early-warning systems, financing mechanisms, integration of traditional and technical knowledge, stakeholder engagement, and alignment with district, provincial, and national priorities. Although all plans address DRR, none explicitly addresses Eco-DRR, despite a few similar actions. DRR actions are not aligned to any hydroclimatic risks, and most plans lack localized climate trends and/or vulnerability assessments to indicate the severity of hazards and/or identify populations and areas at risk. Several measures in the plans address disaster preparedness, but none includes early-warning systems. Public participation features prominently in all plans, but the process is marred by challenges and lacks genuineness, e.g., prioritized actions are not reflective of community needs. Based on the findings, we discuss measures to enhance the mainstreaming of ecosystem-based approaches into DRR. We conclude that a huge opportunity exists to institutionalize and mainstream Eco-DRR into local development planning in South Africa’s rural areas. If carefully seized, such an opportunity can also help attract external finance to complement the currently constrained budgets related to addressing hydroclimatic risks.

Extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall, are being increased by climate change in various regions, and such events often cause floods. This study examined the trends and variability of extreme rainfall indices using daily rainfall data (1981–2023) from three study sites at different socio-economic development spectra in Vhembe District, Limpopo Province, South Africa. The analyses focus on indices such as the annual total rainfall from wet days (PRCPTOT), the maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) and wet days (CWD), annual maximum 1-day and 5-day rainfall (RX1 day and RX5 day), the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), the number of days exceeding varying amounts of precipitation (R10, R20, R40) and the annual number of wet days with rainfall greater than the 95th and 99th percentile (R95p and R99p) of the 1981–2023 daily rainfall. We discuss the observed trends in extreme rainfall indices in light of the actual flood occurrences to establish linkages. Several statistically significant and marginal changes in extreme rainfall trends were identified and provided key insights into reported flooding events in the district—flooding episodes were mainly attributed to the significant increases in total precipitation (PRCPTOT) and rainfall exceeding the 99th percentile of daily rainfall (R99p). Other significant contributors were declining CDD and increasing RX1day at Duthuni, increasing R40 at Musina as well as increasing R1 and declining CDD at Sane. However, the low altitude, urbanization, poor waste management and inadequate drainage systems were among the key non-climatic drivers of flood risk across the study sites, but these warrant further investigation. The complex interplay between climatic and non-climatic drivers of flood risk underscores the importance of localized climate studies and the need for adaptive strategies to minimize loss and damage. Overall, this research provides valuable insights into localized extreme rainfall trends, which are essential for developing site-specific flood mitigation and adaptation strategies. However, such initiatives require placing vulnerable communities at the centre in order to develop solutions that are locally led and relevant.