Under the context of global climate change and China’s dual carbon strategy (DCS), the impact of land use/land cover change (LULCC) on regional carbon stocks has garnered increasing attention. As a key economic and ecological hub in Southwest China, Chengdu has undergone significant urbanization over the past two decades, and it is necessary to quantitatively assess how shifts in land use affect its carbon stock function. This study integrates multi-period remote sensing data from 2000 to 2020, combining socioeconomic and natural environmental drivers. The PLUS model was employed to simulate land use in 2030 under four scenarios: Natural Development Scenario (NDS), Urban Development Scenario (UDS), Conservation of Cropland Scenario (CPS), and Ecological Protection Scenario (EPS). The InVEST model was then used to calculate changes in carbon stocks and their spatial distribution characteristics. The results indicate the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, Chengdu’s cropland decreased by 1188.6174 km², while built-up land increased by 1006.5465 km², resulting in a net carbon stock decrease of approximately 3.25 × 10⁶ t, with carbon gains from forest restoration offsetting part of the cropland-to-built-up loss; (2) Under all scenarios, built-up land exhibited an expansion trend, with the UDS showing the most significant increase, reaching 1919.2455 km². In the EPS, the forest increased to 4035.258 km², achieving the largest carbon stock increase of 8.5853 × 10⁶ t. (3) Chengdu’s carbon stock exhibits a spatial distribution pattern characterized by “high in the northwest, low in the center”. High-value areas are concentrated in the ecologically sound Longmen Mountains and Longquan Mountains, while low-value areas are primarily located in urban built-up zones and their peripheries. The study indicates that rationally controlling the expansion of Built-up land, strengthening ecological restoration, and protecting forests can effectively enhance Chengdu’s carbon sink capacity and achieve regional low-carbon and sustainable development. This study aims to address the gap in carbon stock assessments under different development scenarios at the urban scale in Southwest China, and to provide a scientific basis for Chengdu’s regional spatial planning, ecological conservation, low-carbon development, and sustainable land management.

Vegetation restoration is an essential approach to re-establish the ecological balance in subalpine areas. Changes in vegetation cover represent, to some extent, vegetation growth trends and are the consequence of a complex of different natural factors and human activities. Microtopography influences vegetation growth by affecting the amount of heat and moisture reaching the ground, a role that is more pronounced in subalpine areas. However, little research is concerned with the characteristics and dynamics of vegetation restoration in different microtopography types. The respective importance of the factors driving vegetation changes in subalpine areas is also not clear yet. We used linear regression and the Hurst exponent to analyze the trends in vegetation restoration and sustainability in different microtopography types since 2000, based on Fractional Vegetation Cover (FVC) and identified potential driving factors of vegetation change and their importance by using Geographical Detector. The results show that: (1) The FVC in the region under study has shown an up-trend since 2000, and the rate of increase is 0.26/year (P = 0.028). It would be going from improvement to degradation, continuous decrease or continuous significant decrease in 47.48% of the region, in the future. (2) The mean FVC is in the following order: lower slope (cool), lower slope, lower slope (warm), valley, upper slope (warm), upper slope, valley (narrow), upper slope (cool), cliff, mountain/divide, peak/ridge (warm), peak/ridge, peak/ridge (cool). The lower slope is the microtopographic type with the best vegetation cover, and ridge peak is the most difficult to be afforested. (3) The main factors affecting vegetation restoration in subalpine areas are aspect, microtopographic type, and soil taxonomy great groups. The interaction between multiple factors has a much stronger effect on vegetation cover than single factors, with the effect of temperatures and aspects having the most significant impact on the vegetation cover changes. Natural factors have a greater impact on vegetation restoration than human factors in the study area. The results of this research can contribute a better understanding of the influence of different drivers on the change of vegetation cover, and provide appropriate references and recommendations for vegetation restoration and sustainable development in typical logging areas in subalpine areas.

On the eastern Tibetan Plateau, the growth of trees is strongly affected by climate change. Previous researchers have found that climate warming changes thermal and hydraulic conditions, lengthening the growing season and promoting tree growth. Some studies have analyzed the effects of drought, precipitation, and temperature on tree growth. However, previous studies have mainly focused on natural forests, with few studies on the response of plantations to climate change. Therefore, we studied the relationship between dendrochronology (basal area increment, BAI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and climate factors to explore the response of Picea likiangensis var. rubescens plantations to climate change. The results showed that from 1990 to 2018, the temperature in the study area increased significantly; the rate of increase was 0.39^∘ per decade. Among the climate factors, self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI) had the most significant impact on BAI. From P_May (P_ represents the month of the previous year) to December, BAI was always negatively correlated with the scPDSI, with 9 months being significantly negatively correlated. BAI was significantly positively correlated with the minimum 2 m temperature (TMN) in P_July, P_September, July, and September. BAI was significantly positively correlated with the maximum 2 m temperature (TMX) in P_October, P_December, and July. BAI was significantly positively correlated with the mean 2 m temperature (TMP) in P_July, P_December, and July. There is a significant positive correlation between BAI and annual NDVI (NDVIa), which means that NDVI can be used to study the response of plantations to climate change. Our study contributes to a better understanding of the response of plantation growth in high-altitude areas to climate change, which is needed by forest managers.

Forests are widely distributed in terrestrial ecosystems, covering about one-third of the global land area. They play a key role in sequestering carbon, releasing oxygen, mitigating climate change, and maintaining ecosystem balance. The ecology of the Tibetan Plateau is very fragile, but the impact of environmental change on regional forest ecosystems is not yet clear. Located in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau, the Shaluli Mountain has the richest biodiversity and the widest distribution of forests on the Tibetan Plateau. Assessing the dynamics of forest change is the basis for correctly formulating forest management measures, and is important for regional biodiversity conservation. However, traditional field surveys have the shortcomings of high cost, being time-consuming, and having poor regional coverage in forest dynamics monitoring. Remote sensing methods can make up for these shortcomings. Therefore, in this study, satellite remote sensing images were used to extract forest information from 2000 to 2020 in Shaluli Mountain, and the main drivers of forest change were analyzed with full consideration of the Spatially Stratified Heterogeneity (SSH) of environmental factors. The results found that the forest area increased from 23,144.20 km² in 2000 to 28,429.53 km² in 2020, and the average Percentage of Forest Cover (PFC) increased from 19.76% to 21.67%, with significant improvement in forest growth. The annual minimum temperature (TMN), altitude, annual maximum temperature (TMX), and annual precipitation (PRE) were the main driving factors of forest change, with an average driving power (q-value) of 0.4877, 0.2706, 0.2342, and 0.2244, and TMN was the primary limiting factor for forest growth. In addition, the driving power of all environmental factors on forest change increased from 2000 to 2020. The results of this study can provide a basis for the development of forest management strategies, and provide reference materials for regional biodiversity conservation.

The alpine timberline is a component of terrestrial ecosystems and is highly susceptible to climate change. Since 2000, the Tibetan Plateau’s high-altitude zone has been experiencing a persistent warming, clarifying that the response of the alpine timberline to climate warming is important for mitigating the negative impacts of global warming. However, it is difficult for traditional field surveys to clarify changes in the alpine timberline over a wide range of historical periods. Therefore, alpine timberline sites were extracted from 2000–2021, based on remote sensing data sources (LANDSAT, MODIS), to quantify the timberline vegetation growth in the Gexigou National Nature Reserve and to explore the impacts of climate change on timberline vegetation growth. The results show that the mean temperature increased significantly from 2000 to 2021 (R² = 0.35, p = 0.0036) at a rate of +0.03 °C/year. The alpine timberline continued to shift upwards, but at a slower rate, by +22.87 m, +23.23 m, and +2.73 m in 2000–2007, 2007–2014, and 2014–2021, respectively. The sample plots of the timberline showing an upward shift experienced a decreasing trend. The timberline NDVI increased significantly from 2000 to 2021 (R² = 0.2678, p = 0.0136) with an improvement in its vegetation. The timberline NDVI is positively correlated with the annual mean temperature (p < 0.05), February mean temperature (p < 0.05), June minimum temperature (p < 0.05), February maximum temperature (p < 0.01), June maximum temperature (p < 0.01), and June mean temperature (p < 0.01). It was also found to be negatively correlated with annual precipitation (p < 0.01). The study showcases the practicality of using remote sensing techniques to investigate the alpine timberline shifts and timberline vegetation. The findings are valuable in developing approaches to the sustainable management of timberline ecosystems.

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is experiencing higher warming rates than elsewhere, which may affect regional vegetation growth. Particularly on the Eastern Tibetan Plateau (ETP), where the topography is diverse and rich in biodiversity, it is necessary to clarify the drivers of climate and topography on vegetation cover. In this research, we selected the Shaluli Mountains (SLLM) in the ETP as the study area, monitored the spatial and temporal dynamics of the regional vegetation cover using remote sensing methods, and quantified the drivers of vegetation change using Geodetector (GD). The results showed a decreasing trend in annual precipitation (PRE) (−2.4054 mm/year) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) (−0.1813/year) in the SLLM. Annual maximum temperature (TMX) on the spatial and temporal scales showed an overall increasing trend, and the regional climate tended to become warmer and drier. Since 2000, fractional vegetation cover (FVC) has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with an average value of 0.6710, and FVC has spatially shown a pattern of “low in the middle and high in the surroundings”. The areas with non-significant increases (p > 0.05) and significant increases (p < 0.05) in FVC accounted for 46.03% and 5.76% of the SLLM. Altitude (q = 0.3517) and TMX (q = 0.3158) were the main drivers of FVC changes. As altitude and TMX increased, FVC showed a trend of increasing and then decreasing. The results of this study help us to clarify the influence of climate and topography on the vegetation ecosystem of the ETP and provide a scientific basis for regional biodiversity conservation and sustainable development.