Cultivated land ecological compensation (CLEC) is an important way to solve regional development imbalance and cultivated land problems, and the scientific quantification of the ecological value of cultivated land is the key to CLEC. This study quantified the total amount and urgency of CLEC in China’s main grain-producing region using the cropland ecological footprint (EF) and ecosystem service value (ESV) methods. Furthermore, this study analyzed the comprehensive zoning of CLEC considering natural and economic development. The results showed that the spatial distribution of EFs and the ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land in Henan Province are similar, presenting the spatial characteristics of being high in the southeast and low in the northwest; the cultivated land in most of the counties and districts is in a state of ecological surplus, and the cultivated land resources are sufficient to support their own consumption needs. Henan Province as a whole is an ecologically compensated region, with a compensation amount of CNY 1.39 billion, and the total amount of compensation is in a positive value of 94.94%. The Southwest Yu and North Yu economic zone of Henan are the areas of high and low values of cultivated land compensation. The priority compensation region is the most extensive and widely distributed type in the five regions of Henan Province, accounting for 55% of the counties and districts. The degree of compensation is most urgent in the Huanghuai, Southwest Yu, and North Yu economic zones. This study’s findings provide new ideas for the development of differentiated ecological compensation policies, and provide references for the participation of multiple market participants and the diversification of compensation forms.

Ensuring the synergistic advancement of agricultural pollution reduction and carbon emission mitigation, along with sustainable development, is crucial for achieving the ‘dual carbon’ target and modernizing agriculture. To ensure sustainable agricultural development, this study employs a coupling coordination model to explore the synergistic effects of pollution reduction and carbon emission mitigation in Henan Province, considering the agricultural carbon emissions (ACEs), agricultural non-point source pollution (ANP), and the gross value of agricultural output (GVAO) of 18 cities in Henan from 2010 to 2022 as endogenous variables. A panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model is utilized to analyze the interactive responses between agricultural pollution reduction and carbon emission mitigation and agricultural economic development. The results indicate that the degree of synergy between ACE and ANP in Henan Province has shown a trend towards higher values and a diminishing polarization phenomenon between 2010 and 2022, with most regions having degrees of synergy at higher levels. Furthermore, the interactive response relationships between agricultural pollution reduction and carbon emission mitigation and agricultural economic development reveals that the GVAO in Henan Province has a significant positive impact on both ACE and ANP, and that agricultural pollution reduction and carbon emission mitigation are constrained by agricultural economic development, with no significant bidirectional causal relationship observed overall and a lack of positive interaction in the long term. Finally, ACE, ANP, and GVAO in Henan Province exhibit a strong self-reinforcing mechanism, particularly ACE and GVAO, which show a pronounced self-growth trend. Overall, Henan Province should fully utilize the synergistic effects of agricultural pollution reduction and carbon emission mitigation to achieve coordinated progress in agricultural pollution reduction and carbon emission mitigation, as well as green and sustainable development of the agricultural economy.

Land use transition pathways have different ecological effects, but the impacts of key conversion processes on habitat quality remain insufficiently understood. Habitat quality was defined as a unitless 0–1 InVEST index of the landscape’s relative capacity to support biodiversity, derived from land-cover suitability and exposure to anthropogenic threats. This study identified key transition pathways affecting habitat quality in the Huaihe River Eco-Economic Belt. Land use data from 2003 to 2023 were analyzed using a coupled PLUS–InVEST framework to simulate land use and habitat quality under four scenarios for 2033, while contribution analysis quantified pathway effects. Cropland continuously decreased, whereas the aggregated impervious-surface category, comprising built structures and paved or artificially sealed surfaces, expanded. Mean habitat quality increased from 0.588 to 0.628, a modest absolute increase of 0.040 on the 0–1 scale, and was higher in the south than in the north. A small number of pathways dominated habitat-quality change; cropland and forest conversion to impervious surfaces were the principal negative pathways. Scenario differences were modest, indicating potential trade-offs among agricultural production, ecosystem conservation, and habitat quality; at the transition-pathway level, the Ecological Protection and Sustainable Development scenarios reduced the negative habitat-quality contributions of specific high-risk conversions, particularly cropland-to-impervious-surface conversion.