On the 4th and 5th of March 2005, about 100 rainfall-induced landslides occurred along volcanic slopes of Camaldoli Hill in Naples, Italy. These started as soil slips in the upper substratum of incoherent and welded volcaniclastic deposits, then evolved downslope according to debris avalanche and debris flow mechanisms. This specific case of slope instability on complex volcaniclastic deposits remains poorly characterized and understood, although similar shallow landsliding phenomena have largely been studied in other peri-volcanic areas of the Campania region underlain by carbonate bedrock. Considering the landslide hazard in this urbanized area, this study focused on quantitatively advancing the understanding of the predisposing factors and hydrological conditions contributing to the initial landslide triggering. Borehole drilling, trial pits, dynamic penetrometer tests, topographic surveys, and infiltration tests were conducted on a slope sector of Camaldoli Hill to develop a geological framework model. Undisturbed soil samples were collected for laboratory testing to further characterize hydraulic and geotechnical properties of the soil units identified. In situ soil pressure head monitoring probes were also installed. A numerical model of two-dimensional variably saturated subsurface water flow was parameterized for the monitored hillslope using field and laboratory data. Based on the observed soil pressure head dynamics, the model was calibrated by adjusting the evapotranspiration parameters. This physically based hydrologic model was combined with an infinite-slope stability analysis to reconstruct the critical unsaturated/saturated conditions leading to slope failure. This coupled hydromechanical numerical model was then used to determine intensity–duration (I-D) thresholds for landslide initiation over a range of plausible rainfall intensities and topographic slope angles for the region. The proposed approach can be conceived as a practicable method for defining a warning criterion in urbanized areas threatened by rainfall-induced shallow landslides, given the unavailability of a consistent inventory of past landslide events that prevents a rigorous empirical analysis.

Assessing hazard of rainfall-induced shallow landslides represents a challenge for the risk management of urbanized areas for which the setting up of early warning systems, based on the reconstruction of reliable rainfall thresholds and rainfall monitoring, is a solution more practicable than the delocalization of settlements and infrastructures. Consequently, the reduction in uncertainties affecting the estimation of rainfall thresholds conditions, leading to the triggering of slope instabilities, is a fundament task to be tackled. In such a view, coupled soil hydrological monitoring and physics-based modeling approaches are presented for estimating rainfall thresholds in two different geomorphological environments prone to shallow landsliding. Based on the comparison of results achieved for silty–clayey soils characterizing Oltrepò Pavese area (northern Italy) and ash-fall pyroclastic soils mantling slopes of Sarno Mountains ridge (southern Italy), this research advances the understanding of the slope hydrological response in triggering shallow landslides. Among the principal results is the comprehension that, mainly depending on geological and geomorphological settings, geotechnical and hydrological properties of soil coverings have a fundamental control on the timing and intensity of hydrological processes leading to landslide initiation. Moreover, results obtained show how the characteristics of the soil coverings control the slope hydrological response at different time scales, making the antecedent soil hydrological conditions a not negligible factor for estimating landslide rainfall thresholds. The approaches proposed can be conceived as an adaptable tool to assess hazard to initiation of shallow rainfall-induced landslides and to implement early-warning systems from site-specific to distributed (catchment or larger) scales.

Incorporating the influence of soil layering and local variability into the parameterizations of physics-based numerical models for distributed landslide susceptibility assessments remains a challenge. Typical applications employ substantial simplifications including homogeneous soil units and soil-hydraulic properties assigned based only on average textural classifications; the potential impact of these assumptions is usually disregarded. We present a multi-scale approach for parameterizing the distributed Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) model that accounts for site-specific spatial variations in both soil thickness and complex layering properties by defining homogeneous soil properties that vary spatially for each model grid cell. These effective properties allow TRIGRS to accurately simulate the timing and distribution of slope failures without any modification of the model structure. We implemented this approach for the carbonate ridge of Sarno Mountains (southern Italy) whose slopes are mantled by complex layered soils of pyroclastic origin. The urbanized foot slopes enveloping these mountains are among the most landslide-prone areas of Italy and have been subjected to repeated occurrences of damaging and deadly rainfall-induced flow-type shallow landslides. At this scope, a primary local-scale application of TRIGRS was calibrated on physics-based rainfall thresholds, previously determined by a coupled VS2D (version 1.3) hydrological modeling and slope stability analysis. Subsequently, by taking into account the spatial distribution of soil thickness and vertical heterogeneity of soil hydrological and mechanical properties, a distributed assessment of landslide hazard was carried out by means of TRIGRS. The combination of these approaches led to the spatial assessment of landslide hazard under different hypothetical rainfall intensities and antecedent hydrological conditions. This approach to parameterizing TRIGRS can be adapted to other spatially variable soil layering and thickness to improve hazard assessments.

The pyroclastic fall deposits mantling mountain slopes in the Campania region (Southern Italy) represent one of the most studied geomorphological frameworks of the world regarding rainfall-induced debris flows threating urban areas. The proposed study focused on advancing knowledge about the hydrological response of pyroclastic fall coverings from the seasonal to event-based time scales, leading to the initiation of slope instability. The study was based on two consequential tasks. The first was the analysis of a six-year monitoring of soil pressure head carried out in a sample area of the Sarno Mountains, located above a debris flow initiation zone. The second was based on coupled hydrological and slope stability modeling performed on the physical models of slopes, which were reconstructed by empirical correlations between the slope angle, total thickness, and stratigraphic settings of pyroclastic fall deposits mantling slopes. The results obtained were: (a) The understanding of a soil pressure head regime of the volcaniclastic soil mantle, always ranging in unsaturated conditions and characterized by a strong seasonal variability depending on precipitation patterns and the life cycle of deciduous chestnut forest; and (b) the reconstruction through a deterministic approach of seasonal intensity–duration rainfall thresholds related to different morphological conditions.