In the face of contemporary ecological problems, including the influence of transport and mobility on the greenhouse effect, policy makers see a solution in the technology of electric vehicles (EVs). This innovation has appeared in the automotive market around the world. In this article, Rogers’ innovation diffusion concept was used to determine if and when EVs could replace combustion engine vehicles. The aim of the article is to analyze the current situation of innovative electric vehicle (EV) technology on the European Union (EU) market and the potential and possible directions of its market diffusion. As a result of the analysis of the current situation of the EU automotive markets, three groups of countries with different market conditions regarding the development of EV technology were distinguished. The classification was carried out using the K-means clustering algorithm, based on the current level of innovation and the level of development of the LPG-(Liquefied Petroleum Gas) powered car market. Then, a group of countries with the greatest advancement in EV technology was selected for further research and market diffusion scenarios were created for this innovation using the Bass model, assuming the target market size of 70–100% of all passenger cars.
Nearly two-thirds of the emissions that cause smog come from road transport. In April 2019, the European Parliament adopted new regulations on public procurement to encourage investment in clean buses—electric, hydrogen, or gas. Directive 2009/33/EC is to apply from the second half of 2021. The aim of this article is to make an attempt to simulate the number of zero-emission buses (ZEB) in European Union (EU) member countries in two time horizons: 2025 and 2030, and to forecast the number of clean vehicles in the precise time horizons, including before and after 2050. Research questions are as follows: (1) what will be the number of ZEBs in individual EU countries over the next few years; (2) which of the EU countries will reach by 2030 the level of 95% share of ZEBs in all buses, which are a fleet of public transport buses; and (3) in which year will which EU countries reach the level of 95% share of zero-emission buses. The method used is a Bass model. The conducted analyses demonstrate that, by 2050, only four of the EU members will be able to reach 95% level of share of clean buses in the city bus transport fleets. It is likely that other countries may not achieve this even by 2050.
Personal light electric vehicles (PLEVs) are a phenomenon that can currently be observed in cities, intended to be an ecological form of transport. The authors of the paper make an attempt to determine electricity consumption by PLEVs in the context of managing a large city in accordance with the concept of sustainable development. The article is of a cognitive nature. Research questions posed against the background of the goal formulated are as follows: how strong will the demand for PLEVs be (in the example of e-motor scooters, taking into consideration the number of vehicles) and for the electricity consumed by PLEVs. The method used is a simulation model. The conducted analyses demonstrate that a dynamic growth of PLEVs will result in an increased energy demand, which must be taken into account by the cities, developing according to the sustainable development conception.
Problems in urban areas at present are caused by the high traffic volumes of motor vehicles. Changing commercial behaviour into e-commerce reduces the need for individual customers to visit shopping centres and increases the need for freight transport to geographically dispersed consumers. In this case, one solution to reduce the number of lorry journeys may be collection points, such as a network of parcel lockers. However, the use of collection points has only a limited impact on reducing the number of cars on the streets because half of the journeys to parcel lockers are still made by car. This study assumes that consumers’ choice of how to collect their parcels depends on the available infrastructure and the time needed to reach the pick-up point, which depends on the distance from the place of residence/work/school. The purpose of this research was to analyse the location of collection points in relation to the alternative infrastructure and places of residence/work/school using Gdańsk, Poland, as an example. The analysis showed that collection points are usually easily accessible by car, are not always accessible by foot, and in only a few cases are easily accessible by bicycle.
1 March 2023 in Mechatronics and Intelligent Transportation Systems
The railway transport system is one of the most important elements in the development of the economy and the social space of any area. The main objective of the study is to analyse the regional differentiation in railway development in Serbia with causal interference. The research has been conducted based on secondary data collected from multiple sources, and the existing synthetic Indicator was applied to classify eight states based on their railway infrastructural status. An alternative synthetic Indicator approach has been proposed and found to be more efficient than the existing synthetic Indicator. The causality of such unequal development has been analysed through a correlation test by defining the composite infrastructure index. The analysis revealed that railway infrastructure significantly influences Serbia's economic and social development. The service area of railway infrastructure indicates the potential zone for future growth.