Johnson’s scalar stress theory, describing the mechanics of (and the remedies to) the increase in in-group conflictuality that parallels the increase in groups’ size, provides scholars with a useful theoretical framework for the understanding of different aspects of the material culture of past communities (i.e., social organization, communal food consumption, ceramic style, architecture and settlement layout). Due to its relevance in archaeology and anthropology, the article aims at proposing a predictive model of critical level of scalar stress on the basis of community size. Drawing upon Johnson’s theory and on Dunbar’s findings on the cognitive constrains to human group size, a model is built by means of Logistic Regression on the basis of the data on colony fissioning among the Hutterites of North America. On the grounds of the theoretical framework sketched in the first part of the article, the absence or presence of colony fissioning is considered expression of not critical vs. critical level of scalar stress for the sake of the model building. The model, which is also tested against a sample of archaeological and ethnographic cases: a) confirms the existence of a significant relationship between critical scalar stress and group size, setting the issue on firmer statistical grounds; b) allows calculating the intercept and slope of the logistic regression model, which can be used in any time to estimate the probability that a community experienced a critical level of scalar stress; c) allows locating a critical scalar stress threshold at community size 127 (95% CI: 122–132), while the maximum probability of critical scale stress is predicted at size 158 (95% CI: 147–170). The model ultimately provides grounds to assess, for the sake of any further archaeological/anthropological interpretation, the probability that a group reached a hot spot of size development critical for its internal cohesion.

Cost-surface analysis in Geographic Information System (GIS) environment has been less frequently used in the study of ancient sail navigation than in other studies of the human past. Navigation cost-surface analysis entails the use of GIS tools that are versatile but not very easy to grasp and to put to work. This article describes an ArcGIS toolbox built to facilitate cost-surface analysis of ancient sail navigation. It estimates the navigation time from a start location, considering parameters relevant for the generation of an accumulated anisotropic cost-surface, automating the complex workflow required to meaningfully pre- and post-process the data. Acknowledging the limitations inherent to the tool, and to the modeling of a complex matter such as sail navigation, the toolbox is first described and then used in a worked example. Historically recorded voyages in the Mediterranean during classical antiquity are compared to estimated durations generated by the toolbox. In spite of structural and expected limitations, the results indicate that the proposed toolbox may produce reasonable estimates. These should be thought of as values gravitating around, not matching, likely past durations. The estimated values may prove useful as an indication of the order of magnitude of past voyages’ duration, and as frame of reference in measuring ancient maritime space through time.

Correspondence Analysis (CA) is a statistical exploratory technique frequently used in many research fields to graphically visualize the structure of contingency tables. Many programs, both commercial and free, perform CA but none of them as yet provides a visual aid to the interpretation of the results. The ‘CAinterprTools’ package, designed to be used in the free R statistical environment, aims at filling that gap. A novel-to-medium R user has been considered as target. 15 commands enable to easily obtain charts that help (and are relevant to) the interpretation of the CA’s results, freeing the user from the need to inspect and scrutinize tabular CA outputs, and to look up values and statistics on which further calculations are necessary. The package also implements tests to assess the significance of the input table’s total inertia and individual dimensions

The present study seeks to understand the determinants of land agricultural suitability in Malta before heavy mechanization. A GIS-based Logistic Regression model is built on the basis of the data from mid-1800s cadastral maps (cabreo). This is the first time that such data are being used for the purpose of building a predictive model. The maps record the agricultural quality of parcels (ranging from good to lowest), which is represented by different colours. The study treats the agricultural quality as a depended variable with two levels: optimal (corresponding to the good class) vs. non-optimal quality (mediocre, bad, low, and lowest classes). Seventeen predictors are isolated on the basis of literature review and data availability. Logistic Regression is used to isolate the predictors that can be considered determinants of the agricultural quality. Our model has an optimal discriminatory power (AUC: 0.92). The positive effect on land agricultural quality of the following predictors is considered and discussed: sine of the aspect (odds ratio 1.42), coast distance (2.46), Brown Rendzinas (2.31), Carbonate Raw (2.62) and Xerorendzinas (9.23) soils, distance to minor roads (4.88). Predictors resulting having a negative effect are: terrain elevation (0.96), slope (0.97), distance to the nearest geological fault lines (0.09), Terra Rossa soil (0.46), distance to secondary roads (0.19) and footpaths (0.41). The model isolates a host of topographic and cultural variables, the latter related to human mobility and landscape accessibility, which differentially contributed to the agricultural suitability, providing the bases for the creation of the fragmented and extremely variegated agricultural landscape that is the hallmark of the Maltese Islands. Our findings are also useful to suggest new questions that may be posed to the more meagre evidence from earlier periods.