SUMMARY: Between 2008 and 2013, the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake and the Ms 7.0 Lushan earthquake occurred successively in the Longmenshan fault zone. Their aftershocks delineated a prominent seismic gap approximately 50 km long, hereafter referred to as the WLSG. The possibility of an event of Ms 7.0 or above occurring in the WLSG is a matter of great concern. In this study, we estimated the change of Coulomb failure stress (ΔCFS) along the WLSG caused by historical earthquakes in the last 300 yr. Our results revealed that 20 major earthquakes cast a stress shadow on the WLSG before 2008 (−148.7 to −7.0 kPa), hindering the rupture of the Wenchuan earthquake and the Lushan earthquake. The Wenchuan earthquake had an important influence on the stress redistribution of the WLSG, resulting in significant stress increase (14.7 to 337.5 kPa). As of 2018, although the negative ΔCFS caused by historical earthquakes (especially the Dayi earthquake) pushed the southern end of the WLSG away from failure, the positive peak ΔCFS of 323.0 kPa greatly encouraged the rupture of the northern WLSG. The small afterslip and weak microseismicity indicate that the WLSG is a stress barrier with high seismic potential, which can explain the mechanism of rupture termination of the Wenchuan earthquake and the Lushan earthquake.

On 8 August 2017, a surface wave magnitude (Ms) 7.0 earthquake occurred at the buried faults extending to the north of the Huya fault. Based on the coseismic deformation field obtained from interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data and a series of finite fault model tests, we propose a brand-new two-fault model composed of a main fault and a secondary fault as the optimal model for the Jiuzhaigou earthquake, in which the secondary fault is at a wide obtuse angle to the northern end of the main fault plane. Results show that the dislocation distribution is dominated by sinistral slip, with a significant shallow slip deficit. The main fault consists of two asperities bounded by an aftershock gap, which may represent a barrier. In addition, most aftershocks are located in stress shadows and appear a complementary pattern with the coseismic high-slip regions. We propose that the aftershocks are attributable to the background tectonic stress, which may be related to the velocity-strengthening zones.