The road to the top is never easy. This study investigated whether the career trajectories of top-level men’s and women’s badminton players could be predicted by their age at first major debut and the time taken to reach the top 150. Data from the BWF from October 2009 to October 2022 were analyzed using a predictive linear regression model with Bayesian inference, adjusting for anthropometric factors. The results suggested that age at debut influences career high rankings among over 120 elite players. Additionally, observations challenged the Matthew effect in early-career success for young players, proposing that inherent talent may be more significant than early nurturing. The study also examined the potential impact of relative age and early specialization in sports.