Accurate and reliable prediction of dam deformation (DD) is of great significance to the safe and stable operation of dams. In order to deal with the fluctuation characteristics in DD for more accurate prediction results, a new hybrid model based on a decomposition-ensemble model named VMD-SE-ER-PACF-ELM is proposed. First, the time series data are decomposed into subsequences with different frequencies and an error sequence (ER) by variational mode decomposition (VMD), and then the secondary decomposition method is introduced into the prediction of ER. In these two decomposition processes, the sample entropy (SE) method is innovatively utilized to determine the decomposition modulus. Then, the input variables of the subsequences are selected by partial autocorrelation analysis (PACF). Finally, the parameter-optimization-based extreme learning machine (ELM) models are used to predict the subsequences, and the outputs are reconstructed to obtain the final prediction results. The case analysis shows that the VMD-SE-ER-PACF-ELM model has strong prediction ability for DD. The model is then compared with other nonlinear and time series models, and its performance under different prediction periods is also analyzed. The results show that the proposed model is able to adequately describe the original DD. It performs well in both training and testing stages. It is a preferred data-driven model for DD prediction and can provide a priori knowledge for health monitoring of dams.

Extraction of the vibration characteristics of a flood discharge structure under the influence of intensive background noise is one of the main challenges in vibration-based damage identification. A novel algorithm called normalized central frequency difference spectrum is proposed to improve the variational mode decomposition algorithm for high-frequency noise filtering. To eliminate the errors caused by end effect, the waveform matching extension algorithm is used to further improve the variational mode decomposition. However, the vibration signal is still coupled in low-frequency noise. Thereupon, the singular spectrum analysis algorithm is applied to filter the low-frequency noise. In this article, a simulated signal and the measured signals from a dam model are analyzed by the proposed algorithm. The results indicate that the proposed algorithm is robust to noise and has high denoising precision. In addition, this algorithm can offer clues for damage identification and localization of a flood discharge structure.

Accurate prediction of concrete dam deformation is essential for ensuring structural safety and operational efficiency. This study presents a novel approach for monitoring and predicting concrete dam deformation using observed air temperature data, intelligent optimization, and machine learning techniques. To address the limitations of traditional statistical models in simulating the thermal effects on dam body deformation, this study proposes an improved hydraulic–air temperature–time (HT_airT) deformation monitoring model. This model leverages long-term air temperature data and its lagged terms as critical input variables, enabling a more comprehensive understanding of thermal impacts on dam deformation. To capture the complex, nonlinear relationships between environmental factors and dam deformation behavior, we introduce the high-performance CatBoost gradient-boosting algorithm as a regressor. An enhanced Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is utilized for optimizing CatBoost’s parameters, enhancing the model’s predictive accuracy. A high concrete dam, currently in service, is selected as the case study, where two representative deformation monitoring points are used for validation. This research fills a gap by combining CatBoost with an optimized PSO in a deformation monitoring model, providing a novel approach that improves predictive reliability in long-term dam safety monitoring. Experimental results show that the enhanced PSO-optimized CatBoost algorithm achieves higher R² and lower MSE and MAE values in multiple monitoring points. compared with other benchmark methods Moreover, the importance of factors affecting deformation can be identified using the proposed method, and experimental results indicate that water level and average air temperature of 1–2 days, 3–7 days, and 30–60 days are key factors affecting the deformation of high concrete arch dams.

As hydraulic buildings are constantly subjected to complex interactions with water, particularly variations in hydrostatic pressure and temperature, deformation structural behavior is inherently sensitive to environmental fluctuations. Monitoring dam deformation with high accuracy and robustness is critical for ensuring the long-term safety and operational integrity of hydraulic structures. However, traditional physics-based models often struggle to fully capture the nonlinear and time-dependent deformation responses in hydraulic structures driven by such coupled environmental influences. To address these limitations, this study presents an advanced deep learning (DL)-based deformation monitoring for hydraulic buildings using long-sequence monitoring data of hydrostatic pressure and temperature. Specifically, the Bidirectional Stacked Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-Stacked-LSTM) is proposed to capture intricate temporal dependencies and directional dynamics within long-sequence hydrostatic and thermal time series. Then, hyperparameters, including the number of LSTM layers, neuron counts in each layer, dropout rate, and time steps, are efficiently fine-tuned using the Gaussian Process-based surrogate model optimization (GP-SMO) algorithm. Multiple deformation monitoring points from hydraulic buildings and a variety of advanced machine-learning methods are utilized for analysis. Experimental results indicate that the developed GP-SMO-optimized Bi-Stacked-LSTM dam deformation monitoring model shows better comprehensive representation capability of both past and future deformation-related sequences compared with benchmark methods. By approximating the behavior of the target function, the GP-SMO algorithms allow for the optimization of critical parameters in DL models while minimizing the high computational costs typically associated with direct evaluations. This novel DL-based approach significantly improves the extraction of deformation-relevant features from long-term monitoring data, enabling more accurate modeling of temporal dynamics. As a result, the developed method offers a promising new tool for safety monitoring and intelligent management of large-scale hydraulic structures.