Today’s global food system (including production, transportation, processing, packing, storage, retail sale, consumption, losses and waste) provides income to more than a billion people all over the world and makes up a significant part of many countries’ economies. The 21st century’s food systems that bring food from “farm to fork” face various challenges, including a shortage of agricultural land and water, competition with the energy industry, changes in consumption preferences, a rising global population, negative effects of climate change, etc. Therefore, many countries are working on creating various models to function as an important decision support system tool for policymakers, farmers and other stakeholders. Various agricultural sector models see particularly extensive use in the European Union (EU), determining the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and helping to create future development scenarios. This is why a special model adapted to the national conditions, called LASAM (Latvian Agricultural Sector Analysis Model), was created in Latvia, making it possible to use historical data on the development of agricultural sectors, medium-term price projections for agricultural products in the EU, changes in support policy, as well as the necessity for the resources used to project the long-term (up to 2050) development of agriculture. The LASAM model covers the crop sector, the animal sector and the overall socioeconomic development, as well as the growth of organic farming and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper discusses the main objectives achieved in developing a decision support tool and presenting the research results: LASAM was used to prepare projections of the possible development of Latvia’s principal sectors of agriculture until 2050, considering the necessity to reduce GHG emissions, made available through the LASAM web application. Given that the projection data obtained by LASAM are public, they can be used (1) for national policy making in rural business development, which affects the development of the economy as a whole; and (2) internationally, to compare the projections made in Latvia with those obtained through various agricultural sector models and projected development trends.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented stress to food supply chains, pointing to weaknesses in the labour, processing, transport and logistics spheres, as well as significant changes in demand. Food supply chains have shown considerable resilience in the face of such stress. Monitoring of the food sector during the COVID-19 pandemic indicates that the effects of COVID-19 on food supply, demand and access are interlinked processes and have a complex impact on food systems. In addition, high-value food supply chains in developed countries are even more complex, so countries need to respond quickly to restore them and also develop mechanisms that balance business and public interests and protect farmers and food business workers during future potential pandemic crises. The research aims to identify the main demand and supply side factors that affect the resilience of local and global food supply chains during the COVID-19 crisis, as well as assess the resilience of the supply chain for arable crops during the COVID-19 crisis in Latvia, identifying the main risk factors. The research found that arable crop farmers were relatively less affected by the COVID-19 crisis than other agricultural employees. The impact of the crisis was larger on the crop processing industry than on the other industries, and the main risk factors related to changes in demand and the industry’s dependence on imported raw materials and the successful operation of export markets. Based on an in-depth risk analysis, the research developed recommendations for policy makers and actors in the agri-food chain that would improve the resilience of local (domestic) participants of the arable crop food supply chain in Latvia.