Assessment of welfare effects of macroprudential policy seems the most important application of the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework of macro-modelling. In particular, the DSGE-3D model, with three layers of default (3D), was developed and used by the European Systemic Risk Board and European Central Bank as a reference tool to formally model the financial cycle as well as to analyze effects of macroprudential policies. Despite the extreme importance of incorporating financial constraints in Real Business Cycle (RBC) models, the resulting DSGE-3D construct still embraces the representative agent idea, making serious analyses of diversity of economic entities impossible. In this paper, we present an alternative to DSGE modelling that seriously departs from the assumption of the representativeness of agents. Within an Agent Based Modelling (ABM) framework, we build an environment suitable for performing counterfactual simulations of the impact of macroprudential policy on the economy, financial system and society. We contribute to the existing literature by presenting an ABM model with broad insight into heterogeneity of agents. We show the stabilizing effects of macroprudential policies in the case of economic or financial distress.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has raised numerous questions concerning the shape and range of state interventions the goals of which are to reduce the number of infections and deaths. The lockdowns, which have become the most popular response worldwide, are assessed as being an outdated and economically inefficient way to fight the disease. However, in the absence of efficient cures and vaccines, there is a lack of viable alternatives. In this paper we assess the economic consequences of the epidemic prevention and control schemes that were introduced in order to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. The analyses report the results of epidemic simulations that were obtained using the agent-based modelling methods under the different response schemes and their use in order to provide conditional forecasts of the standard economic variables. The forecasts were obtained using the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) with the labour market component.

The COVID-19 pandemic has raised many questions on how to manage an epidemiological and economic crisis around the world. Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, scientists and policy makers have been asking how effective lockdowns are in preventing and controlling the spread of the virus. In the absence of vaccines, the regulators lacked any plausible alternatives. Nevertheless, after the introduction of vaccinations, to what extent the conclusions of these analyses are still valid should be considered. In this paper, we present a study on the effect of vaccinations within the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with an agent-based epidemic component. Thus, we validated the results regarding the need to use lockdowns as an efficient tool for preventing and controlling epidemics that were obtained in November 2020.

Celem artykułu jest określenie, czy wzrost ryzyka systemowego jest przyczyną, czy konsekwencją ostatniego kryzysu finansowego. W kontekście problemów hiszpańskiego systemu finansowego przeanalizowano, czy występuje transmisja ryzyka w systemie finansowym tego kraju. W artykule wykorzystano dane uzyskane z platformy Google Trends dotyczące hiszpańskich instytucji finansowych, które w dużym stopniu ucierpiały podczas kryzysu finansowego w strefie euro. Badanie to jest jedną z pierwszych prób wykorzystania tego typu danych w analizach sektora finansowego oraz transmisji ryzyka systemowego. W artykule przeanalizowano wpływ programów pomocy publicznej (bailouts) na cały system bankowy oraz na poszczególne grupy instytucji w systemie według ich statusu przed uzyskaniem pomocy publicznej i po jej ogłoszeniu. W artykule wskazano, że dane Google Trends mogą być wykorzystywane do analiz stabilności systemu finansowego oraz do kwantyfikacji subiektywnego ryzyka systemowego.

Argumenta Oeconomica, 2019, Nr 1 (42), s. 185-212