Despite recent progress of numerical air quality models, accurate prediction of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is still challenging because of uncertainties in physical and chemical parameterizations, meteorological data, and emission inventory databases. Recent advances in artificial neural networks can be used to overcome limitations in numerical air quality models. In this study, a deep neural network (DNN) model was developed for a 3 d forecasting of 6 h average PM_2.5 concentrations: the day of prediction (D+0), 1 d after prediction (D+1), and 2 d after prediction (D+2). The DNN model was evaluated against the currently operational Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system in South Korea. Our study demonstrated that the DNN model outperformed the CMAQ modeling results. The DNN model provided better forecasting skills by reducing the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) by 4.1, 2.2, and 3.0 µg m⁻³ for the 3 consecutive days, respectively, compared with the CMAQ. Also, the false-alarm rate (FAR) decreased by 16.9 %p (D+0), 7.5 %p (D+1), and 7.6 %p (D+2), indicating that the DNN model substantially mitigated the overprediction of the CMAQ in high PM_2.5 concentrations. These results showed that the DNN model outperformed the CMAQ model when it was simultaneously trained by using the observation and forecasting data from the numerical air quality models. Notably, the forecasting data provided more benefits to the DNN modeling results as the forecasting days increased. Our results suggest that our data-driven machine learning approach can be a useful tool for air quality forecasting when it is implemented with air quality models together by reducing model-oriented systematic biases.

The accurate monitoring and analysis of PM-2.5 are critical for improving air quality and formulating public health policies. However, environmental data often contain missing values due to equipment failures, data collection errors, or extreme weather conditions, which can hinder reliable analysis and predictions. This study evaluates the performance of various missing data imputation methods for PM-2.5 data in Seoul, Korea, using scenarios with artificially generated missing values during high- and low-concentration periods. The methods compared include FFILL, KNN, MICE, SARIMAX, DNN, and LSTM. The results indicate that KNN consistently achieved stable and balanced performance across different temporal intervals, with an RMSE of 5.65, 9.14, and 9.71 for 6 h, 12 h, and 24 h intervals, respectively. FFILL demonstrated superior performance for short intervals (RMSE 4.76 for 6 h) but showed significant limitations as intervals lengthened. SARIMAX performed well in long-term scenarios, with an RMSE of 9.37 for 24 h intervals, but required higher computational complexity. Conversely, deep learning models such as DNN and LSTM underperformed, highlighting the need for further optimization for time-series data. This study highlights the practicality of KNN as the most effective method for addressing missing PM-2.5 data in mid- to long-term applications due to its simplicity and efficiency. These findings provide valuable insights into the selection of imputation methods for environmental data analysis, contributing to the enhancement of data reliability and the development of effective air quality management policies.

Air pollution, particularly fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), poses significant environmental and public health challenges in South Korea. The National Institute of Environmental Research (NIER) currently relies on numerical models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for PM_2.5 forecasting. However, these models exhibit inherent uncertainties due to limitations in emission inventories, meteorological inputs, and model frameworks. To address these challenges, this study evaluates and compares the forecasting performance of two alternative models: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), a deep learning model, and Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (SARIMAX), a statistical model. The performance evaluation was focused on Seoul, South Korea, and took place over different forecast lead times (D00–D02). The results indicate that for short-term forecasts (D00), SARIMAX outperformed LSTM in all statistical metrics, particularly in detecting high PM_2.5 concentrations, with a 19.43% higher Probability of Detection (POD). However, SARIMAX exhibited a sharp performance decline in extended forecasts (D01–D02). In contrast, LSTM demonstrated relatively stable accuracy over longer lead times, effectively capturing complex PM_2.5 concentration patterns, particularly during high-concentration episodes. These findings highlight the strengths and limitations of statistical and deep learning models. While SARIMAX excels in short-term forecasting with limited training data, LSTM proves advantageous for long-term forecasting, benefiting from its ability to learn complex temporal patterns from historical data. The results suggest that an integrated air quality forecasting system combining numerical, statistical, and machine learning approaches could enhance PM_2.5 forecasting accuracy.

Particulate matter (PM) in the atmosphere poses significant risks to both human health and the environment. Specifically, PM2.5, particulate matter with a diameter less than 2.5 micrometers, has been linked to increased rates of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. In South Korea, concerns about PM2.5 exposure have grown due to its potential for causing premature death. This study aims to estimate high-resolution exposure concentrations of PM2.5 across South Korea from 2015 to 2021. We integrated data from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with surface air quality measurements, the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) satellite data. These data, combined with multiple regression analyses, allowed for the correction of PM2.5 estimates, particularly in suburban areas where ground measurements are sparse. The simulated PM2.5 concentration showed strong correlations with observed values R (ranging from 0.88 to 0.94). Spatial distributions of annual PM2.5 showed a significant decrease in PM2.5 concentrations from 2015 to 2021, with some fluctuation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, such as in 2020. The study produced highly accurate daily average high-resolution PM2.5 exposure concentrations.

Traditional data assimilation based on numerical models has been utilized for risk assessment and served as a basis for policy decision-making and regulatory establishment. However, data assimilation is constrained by the resolution of the underlying numerical models, presenting limitations in producing high resolution. In this study, we propose a statistical downscaling method to generate 1 km concentration fields for East Asia using a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) model. The study was conducted in two phases. In Phase 1, the initial concentration fields were derived using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, driven by WRF-simulated meteorology and SMOKE-based emission inventories, with further refinement via surface observation data assimilation. In Phase 2, the GCN model was developed to downscale from 27 km to 1 km resolution, using the reanalysis fields from Phase 1, land-use data from WPS, and emission data from EDGAR as input features. The GCN model used semi-supervised learning by masking 70% of surface monitoring stations to separate training and validation data. The model evaluation indicated that the RMSE was 1.28 μg/m³ for PM2.5, 1.5 ppb for O3, and 0.8 ppb for NO2 in China. In the Korean Peninsula, the RMSE was 1.83 μg/m³ for PM2.5, 2.0 ppb for O3, and 1.3 ppb for NO2. The proposed GCN-based statistical downscaling methodology is expected to produce high-quality, high-resolution data that can contribute to risk assessment and policy development.Acknowledgment"This research was supported by Particulate Matter Management Speciallized Graduate Program throu the Korea Environmental Industry & Technology Institute(KEITI) funded by the Ministry of Environment(MOE)"