China is a large country with rapid economic expansion and high energy consumption, which implies that the country’s overall carbon emissions are enormous. It is vital to increase urban low-carbon economy efficiency (ULEE) to achieve sustainable development of China’s urban economy. Digital finance is a significant tool to boost ULEE by providing a convenient and effective funding channel for urban low-carbon economic transformation. Analyzing the coupled and coordinated relationship between ULEE and digital finance is of vital importance for the sustainable development of the urban economy. This paper selects panel data of 100 cities in China’s Yangtze River Economic Belt (YEB) in 2011-2019, and analyzes the research methods such as the Global Malmquist-Luenberger index model, coupling coordination degree (CCD) model, standard deviation ellipse model, gray model, and geographic detector by The spatial and temporal distribution, dynamic evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the CCD between ULEE and digital finance are analyzed. The study shows that: (1) the CCD of ULEE and digital finance grows by 3.42% annually, reflecting the increasingly coordinated development of the two systems; (2) The CCD of ULEE and digital finance shows a distribution pattern of gradient increase from the upstream region of Yangtze River to the downstream region, meanwhile, the spatial center of gravity moves mainly in the midstream region; (3) The spatial center of gravity of CCD of ULEE and digital finance is expected to move 22.17 km to the southwest from 2019 to 2040; (4) In terms of influencing factors, the influence of informatization and industrial structure on the CCD increases over time, while the influence of factors such as population development, greening, transportation, and scientific research decreases over time. Finally, this paper proposes policy recommendations for improving the CCD of ULEE and digital finance based on the empirical results.

With the increasing uncertainty of urban security, urban resilience construction with risk awareness and bottom-line thinking has become essential for promoting sustainable urban development. This paper measures China’s urban resilience development index (CRDI) based on 284 cities in China (except Tibet) using the entropy method from four dimensions: economic, social, environmental, and infrastructure, and analyzes it by combining coupling coordination degree and barrier factor analysis. We find that: (1) At the national level, CRDI and its sub-dimensions show an increasing trend in time, a decreasing spatial layout from coastal to inland, and a “high-high-low-low” clustering feature in space. (2) At the regional level, the CRDI is from high to low in the east, middle, and west order. The sub-dimensions are from high to low in the order of east, middle, and west for economic, social, and infrastructure resilience and from high to low in the order of east, west, and middle for environmental resilience. (3) To coupling coordination degree, the CRDI index coupling coordination is increasing in time trend but is still on the verge of dissonance. (4) Social resilience is the main obstacle factor. In the indicator layer, human resources, innovation, education, security, living, and environmental protection are the areas where CRDI coordinated development is the key to improvement. Based on the above empirical evidence, this paper proposes countermeasures to optimize urban resilience construction from four perspectives: economic, social, environmental, and infrastructure.

Urban economic development is crucial to regional economy and people’s life, and enhancing the efficiency of urban economic development is of great significance to boost sustainable and healthy economic and social development. In this paper, from the perspective of sustainable development, data of 104 cities in China’s Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) from 2004 to 2019 are selected, and the urban resource consumption index and urban pollutant emission index are synthesized as new input-output indicators using the Time Series Global Principal Component Analysis (GPCA), combined with the Global Malmquist-Luenberger (GML) Index Model, Standard Deviation Ellipse (SDE) Model to measure the total factor productivity index of urban economic development in China’s YREB and analyze its spatial and temporal evolution. The results show that from 2004 to 2019, the total factor productivity index of urban economic development in China’s YREB showed an overall fluctuating upward trend with an average annual growth of 5.8%, and the analysis by decomposing indicators shows that the growth of total factor productivity of urban economic development in China’s YREB is mainly influenced by the growth of technological progress. Meanwhile, there are obvious regional differences in the efficiency of urban economic development in China’s YREB, with the largest difference in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, the second largest in the upper reaches, and the smallest in the lower reaches. From 2004 to 2019, the efficiency center of gravity of urban economic development efficiency in the YREB has always been located in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River region. The spatial distribution pattern of urban economic development efficiency in the YREB is dominated by the northeast-southwest direction and tends to be concentrated in the study time period.

Identifying and forecasting macro-financial conditions is critical to stabilizing the economy. This study aims to develop a novel methodology for constructing China’s Financial Conditions Index, utilizing monthly data from six major Chinese financial markets (comprising 33 key financial indicators) along with 25 external macroeconomic variables from both China and the United States, spanning January 2002 to June 2024. Although the traditional TVP-FAVAR model can capture the linear relationship in the financial market, it cannot adequately characterize the nonlinear or asymmetric nature of the macro-financial conditions exhibited when major risk events occur at home and abroad. In this paper, we propose an innovative kernel factor-augmented time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model (TVP-KFAVAR), which can better capture the nonlinear nature of the macro-financial situation. It is shown that the TVP-KFAVAR model successfully reflects the impact of major domestic and international risk events on China’s Financial Conditions Index. Meanwhile, the ARIMA model and five machine learning techniques (GRU, LSTM, BiLSTM, TCN and Transformer) are used in this study to predict the Macro-Financial Conditions Index, and it is found that the vast majority of the machine learning techniques outperform the traditional time-series models in terms of forecasting performance. TCN has the outstanding prediction performance under different input configurations. This study can provide policymakers with a powerful tool for macro-financial regulation and risk early warning, and help improve macro-financial management in emerging markets.