Estuarine systems currently face increasing pressure due to population growth, rapid economic development, and the effect of climate change, which threatens the deterioration of their water quality. This study uses an open-source model of high transferability (Delft3D), to investigate the physics and water quality dynamics, spatial variability, and interrelation of two estuarine systems of the Portuguese west coast: Mondego Estuary and Óbidos Lagoon. In this context, the Delft3D was successfully implemented and validated for both systems through model-observation comparisons and further explored using realistically forced and process-oriented experiments. Model results show (1) high accuracy to predict the local hydrodynamics and fair accuracy to predict the transport and water quality of both systems; (2) the importance of the local geomorphology and estuary dimensions in the tidal propagation and asymmetry; (3) Mondego Estuary (except for the south arm) has a higher water volume exchange with the adjacent ocean when compared to Óbidos Lagoon, resulting from the highest fluvial discharge that contributes to a better water renewal; (4) the dissolved oxygen (DO) varies with water temperature and salinity differently for both systems. On the one hand, for Mondego Estuary during winter the DO levels mainly fluctuate with salinity. On the other hand, for Óbidos Lagoon, DO distribution is determined by both water temperature and salinity. During summer, the high residence time and water temperature limit the DO levels in both systems. The high transferability and superior stability of Delft3D make this model a foundation for realistic simulation and research of distinct estuarine systems, giving support to their maintenance and restoration.

The present study aims to research the physico-chemical processes in two under-researched coastal systems located on the west and south Portuguese coast—Mira Estuary and Ria de Alvor—through the development and exploitation of dedicated coupled physical and water quality models. Both systems are highly dynamic, supporting a wide range of biological diversity; however, they are characterized by distinct environmental and oceanographic conditions, enhancing the importance of a comparative approach. In this context, the Delft3D modeling suite was implemented and successfully calibrated and validated for both systems, accurately reproducing their hydrodynamic, hydrographic, and chemical features. A broad characterization of Mira Estuary and Ria de Alvor was carried out. Results show that the tidal wave interacts differently with the different geomorphology of each estuary. The tidal wave amplitude decreases as it propagates upstream for both estuaries; however, the magnitude for Ria de Alvor is higher. A flood tidal dominance was found for Mira Estuary, allowing the transport of well-oxygenated water into the estuary, contributing to high residence times in the middle estuary and therefore to poor dissolved oxygen (DO) replenishment. Ria de Alvor shifts from ebb dominance at the central area to flood dominance upstream with low residence times, allowing an effective exchange of water properties. Results also reveal that the water temperature is the dominant driver of seasonal dissolved oxygen variations in both estuaries, with the lowest levels occurring during the late summer months when the water temperature is highest. In addition, pH is influenced by biological activity and freshwater inflow.

Forecasting estuarine circulation is a hot topic, especially in densely populated regions, like Santos (Brazil). This paper aims to improve a water-level forecasting system for the Santos estuary, particularly the physical forcing determining the residual tide, which in extreme cases increase the predicting errors. The MOHID hydrodynamic model was implemented with a nested downscaling approach. All automatic procedures to provide a high-resolution real-time forecast system are managed by the AQUASAFE software. Water-level observation and prediction datasets (2016–2017) of five tide gauges in the Santos channel were analyzed, resulting in distinct model configurations, aiming to minimize forecasting inaccuracies. Current MOHID open boundary reference solutions were modified: the astronomical solution was updated from FES2012 to FES2014 whereas the meteorological component (Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) global solution) time resolution was altered from daily to hourly data. Furthermore, the correlation between significant wave height with positive residual tide events was identified. The model validation presented a minimum Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 12.5 cm. Despite FES2014 solution improvements at the bay entrance, errors increase in inner stations were maintained, portraying the need for better bathymetric data. The use of a CMEMS hourly resolution decreased the meteorological tide errors. A linear regression method was developed to correct the residual tide through post-processing, under specific wave height conditions. Overall, the newest implementation increased the water-level forecast accuracy, particularly under extreme events.