The Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle (CCEC) is becoming the fourth growth pole in China after the Yangtze River Delta Economic Circle (YRDEC); Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao Economic Circle (GBAEC); Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei Economic Circle (BTHEC). The land use and landscape ecological management of the CCEC is critical to its social and economic development. Using ArcGIS modeling and Fragstats processing methods, we divided the CCEC into 5 km × 5 km ecological risk areas and constructed a landscape ecological risk index evaluation model to calculate the spatial and temporal dynamic changes in the urban expansion and landscape ecological risk over the last 20 years. The results show that the land use was mainly cultivated land, which exhibited a decreasing trend and was mainly converted to construction land and forest land. The change in the construction land exhibited a continuous expansion trend with the dual core in Chengdu-Chongqing. The average risk of 10,155 risk communities was about 0.16. The expansion of human activities increased the landscape ecological risk of the construction land, and the risk of the edge of the cultivated land was higher than the internal risk value. The ecological risk index values of 16 cities in the study area ranged from 0.02 to 0.28. The resistance of the landscape pattern to external disturbance was stronger than that in other regions of China. The landscape ecological risk is controllable overall. However, the higher level of economic development in Chengdu, Chongqing, and other mature cities poses a greater landscape ecological risk. The results of this research provide an important reference for promoting the optimization and construction of the land space in the CCEC, building ecological shelters, and preventing ecological risk in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.

The management of regional eco-environmental risks is the key to promoting regional economic sustainability from the macro level, and accurate evaluation of the evolutionary trends of regional ecological risk in the future is of high importance. In order to clearly identify the possible impact of future development scenario selection for the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone (C-C E Zone) on the evolution of landscape ecological risk (LER), we introduced the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to simulate land use data for the C-C E Zone from 2030 to 2050 for two scenarios: natural development (ND) and ecological protection (EP). Based on the ecological grid and landscape ecological risk index (LERI) model, the landscape ecological risk (LER) evolutionary trends seen in the C-C E Zone from 2000 to 2050 were analyzed and identified. The results showed that: (1) The PLUS model can obtain high-precision simulation results in the C-C E Zone. In the future, the currently increasing rate of land being used for construction will be reduced, the declining rates of forest and cultivated land area will also be reduced, and the amount of land being used for various purposes will remain stable going into the future. (2) This study found that the optimal size of the ecological grid in the LERI calculation of the mountainous area was 4 × 4 km. Additionally, the mean values of the LERI in 2030, 2040, and 2050 were 0.1612, 0.1628, and 0.1636 for ND and 0.1612, 0.1618, and 0.1620 for EP. (3) The hot spot analysis results showed that an area of about 49,700 km² in the C-C E Zone from 2000 to 2050 belongs to high agglomeration of LER. (4) Since 2010, the proportions of high and extremely high risk levels have continued to increase, but under the EP scenario, the high and extremely high risk levels in 2040 and 2050 decreased from 14.36% and 6.66% to 14.33% and 6.43%. Regional analysis showed that the high and extremely high risk levels in most regions increased over 2010–2050. (5) Under the ND scenario, the proportions of grids with decreased, unchanged, and increased risk levels were 15.13%, 81.48%, and 3.39% for 2000–2010 and 0.54%, 94.75%, and 4.71% for 2040–2050. These trends indicated that the proportion of grids with changed risk levels gradually decreased going into the future. This study analyzed the evolutionary trends of LER at the C-C E Zone for the ND and EP scenario. On the whole, the LER for the C-C E Zone showed an upward trend, and the EP scenario was conducive to reducing the risk. These research results can serve as a valuable data reference set for regional landscape optimization and risk prevention and control.

The relationship between land use changes and regional carbon storage is closely linked. Identifying evolving trends concerning and influencing factors on carbon storage under future scenarios is key in order to achieve the “dual carbon” goals. Using Chongqing as a case study, this study integrated the advantages of the PLUS model, InVEST model, and a geographic detector model. It conducted simulations of land use type data under scenarios of natural development (ND) and ecological protection (EP), and identified evolving trends and influencing factors regarding carbon storage. The results were as follows: (1) the PLUS model demonstrated excellent simulation performance, with a Kappa coefficient above 0.85 and an overall accuracy above 0.90. During the study period, significant changes occurred for cultivated land, forested land, water bodies, and construction, which were closely related to carbon storage; (2) carbon storage in Chongqing showed a decreasing trend, with a decrease of 10.07 × 10⁶ t C from 2000 to 2020. Under the ND scenario, carbon storage was projected to decrease by 10.54 × 10⁶ t C in 2030 compared to 2020, and it was expected to stabilize from 2030 to 2050. At the county level, Youyang, Fengjie, and Wuxi had the highest carbon storage, while Nanchuan, Jiangbei, and Dadukou had the lowest; (3) the spatial distribution of carbon storage presented an “eastern hotspot western cold spot aggregation” pattern. The proportions of regions with a decreased, unchanged, and increased aggregation of carbon storage in Chongqing during 2000–2010 and 2010–2020 were 2.99%, 95.95%, 1.06%; and 4.39%, 92.40%, 3.21%, respectively. The trend indicated a decrease in the aggregation of carbon storage, and future carbon storage was expected to stabilize; (4) elevation, terrain fluctuation, NDVI, annual average temperature, annual average precipitation, and nighttime light index had influence values of 0.88, 0.81, 0.61, 0.86, 0.77, and 0.81 on carbon storage, respectively, with different combinations of influencing factors having a greater impact. In the future, ecological priority and green development concepts should be followed, and comprehensive improvement of regional development conditions should be pursued to enhance carbon storage, thereby promoting the achievement of the “dual carbon” goals. This study provided an analytical path and data support for formulating optimized carbon storage policies at the regional level.