Newly available time series of 10‐m winds over last 60 years in the South Caspian Sea (CS) region show a remarkable shift in wind speed in 1995, that is also the year of maximum elevation of the Caspian Sea level (CSL). Our aim is to find the mechanisms linking these two features. This change is not only seen in the wind observations along the Southern CS coast, but also in the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis covering the Southern CS, leading there to an increase of evaporation after 1995. Due to wind increase, evaporation increases but does not lead to enhanced precipitation over the CS catchment area, the water seems to be lost to the east of the drainage basin for the water budget of the CS after 1995. This stopped the CSL rise and caused its post‐1995 fall. The connection between the wind speed and the trend of the CSL can also be seen for the 1977 low stand. Before 1977, the CSL was slightly dropping with relatively strong wind, then the wind speed fell and the CSL started to rise. The change of the wind seems to be induced by a teleconnection from El Niño‐Southern oscillation (ENSO). It is shown that ENSO impact is much stronger than that of North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), not only for the change of the CSL, but also for several key components of the CS water budget, like the Volga river discharge and wind speed. The wind speed is induced by ENSO, which is demonstrated by a shift of the jet stream over the CS area. This could be an explanative link between ENSO and CSL variability, but still needs further understanding. The NAO has a similar impact but to a lesser degree. When NAO and ENSO are working in the same direction, the CSL change is enhanced like from 1990 to 1995.

1. IntroductionThe lack of long-term data on the response of aquatic systems to water-level and climatic changes is seen as an impediment to the assessment of the vulnerability and risks that large water-bodies face with respect to ongoing and future global changes. Petroleum, fishing (e.g. for caviar) and tourism industries, and governments are struggling to understand the vulnerabilities and risk associatedwith the unprecedented rate of environmental change and the consequences for ecosystems and natural resources such as water upon which we closely depend (Zonn et al., 2010). The Caspian Sea is a closed water body between Europe and Asia (Fig. 1A), of ~371,000 km2 insize. Its water-levels are changing a hundred times faster than that of global ocean. For example water levels dropped 3 m between 1929 and 1977 (~6.2 cm yr-1), and rose 2.3 m between 1977 and 1995 (~12.1 cm yr-1) (Arpe et al., 2000; Kroonenberg et al., 2007). The rise since 1978 has been shown to be due to changes in atmospheric circulation and is strongly influenced by the discharge of the Volga River (Arpe & Leroy, 2007). Much too often, economic activities around the Caspian Sea cannot adapt to these rapid changes. Caspian Sea level has varied by as much as 10 m over the past millennium (Naderi Beni et al., 2013), although this has been partly due to human impact (Haghani et al., 2016). Figure 1. Location. 1A: The Caspian Sea at the boundary between Europe and Asia with other Pontocaspian seas such as the B The response of large water-bodies to global change in terms of ecosystem services and economical value is a major concern. The Caspian Sea, the world’s largest enclosed water-body, has a poorly-known water-level history, but observed changes are a hundred times faster than recent global sea-level rise. This ancient lake, characterised by brackish waters, is rich in endemic species; some of them have spread to similar environments worldwide. However, the ecology of Pontocaspian species remains poorly understood and must be studied in their original habitat.This work aims at improving the capacity to reconstruct Quaternary environments of the Pontocaspian region and to provide a benchmark for biodiversity turnover studies. A transect of surface sediment across a wide shelf was subjected to multidisciplinary analyses: stable isotopes, pollen, dinocysts, diatoms, foraminifers, ostracods and molluscs and vertical oceanographic profiles. Three depositional environments with characteristic communities were found: shore face, shelf and slope. Invasion impact was strongly felt by the molluscs. All biota groups, except diatoms, reflected high endemism. The radiocarbon reservoir effect is highlighted in differential 14C ages for different groups. Understanding such discrepancies require detailed insight into reworking processes. Tephra presence in the sediment shows a potential for tephrochronology. Stable isotope ratios in ostracods appear to reflect temperature depth gradients. Our results provide a baseline for calibrating proxy data to the present Pontocaspian environment.

Publications on temperate deciduous tree refugia in Europe are abundant, but little is known about the patterns of temperate tree refugia in eastern Asia, an area where biodiversity survived Quaternary glaciations and which has the world's most diverse temperate flora. Our goal is to compare climate model simulations with pollen data in order to establish the location of glacial refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Limits in which temperate deciduous trees can survive are taken from the literature. The model outputs are first tested for the present by comparing climate models with published modern pollen data. As this method turned out to be satisfactory for the present, the same approach was used for the LGM. Climate model simulations (ECHAM5 T106), statistically further downscaled, are used to infer the temperate deciduous tree distribution during the LGM. These were compared with available fossil temperate tree pollen occurrences. The impact of the LGM on the eastern Asian climate was much weaker than on the European climate. The area of possible tree growth shifts only by about 2^∘ to the south between the present and the LGM. This contributes to explaining the greater biodiversity of forests in eastern Asia compared to Europe. Climate simulations and the available, although fractional, fossil pollen data agree. Therefore, climate estimations can safely be used to fill areas without pollen data by mapping potential refugia distributions. The results show two important areas with population connectivity: the Yellow Sea emerged shelf and the southern Himalayas. These two areas were suitable for temperate deciduous tree growth, providing corridors for population migration and connectivity (i.e. less population fragmentation) in glacial periods. Many tree populations live in interglacial refugia, not glacial ones. The fact that the model simulation for the LGM fits so well with observed pollen distribution is another indication that the model used is good enough to also simulate the LGM period.

Publications on temperate deciduous tree refugia in Europe are abundant, but little is known about the patterns of temperate tree refugia in eastern Asia, an area where biodiversity survived Quaternary glaciations and which has the world's most diverse temperate flora. Our goal is to compare climate model simulations with pollen data in order to establish the location of glacial refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) period. Limits in which temperate deciduous trees can survive are taken from the literature. The model outputs are first tested for the present by comparing climate models with published modern pollen data. As this method turned out to be satisfactory for the present, the same approach was used for the LGM, Climate model simulations (ECHAM5 T106), statistically further down-scaled, are used to infer the temperate deciduous trees distribution during the LGM. These were compared with available fossil temperate tree pollen occurrences. The impact of the LGM on the eastern Asia climate was much weaker than on the European climate. The area of possible tree growth shifts only by about 2° to the south between the present and the LGM. This contributes to explain the greater biodiversity of forests in eastern Asia compared to Europe. Climate simulations and the available, although fractional, fossil pollen data agree. Therefore climate estimations can safely be used to fill areas without pollen data by mapping potential refugia distributions. The results show two important areas with population connectivity: the Yellow Sea emerged shelf and the southern Himalayas. These two areas were suitable for temperate deciduous tree growth, providing corridors for population migration and connectivity (i.e. less population fragmentation) in glacial and in interglacial periods. Many tree populations live in interglacial refugia; not glacial ones. The fact that the model simulation for the LGM fits so well with observed pollen distribution is another indication that the used model is good to simulate also the LGM period.