Arid and semiarid regions are geographic units that cover approximately 43% of the earth’s surface worldwide, and conditions of extreme drought and reduced vegetation cover predominate in these regions. In Mexico, arid and semiarid ecosystems cover more than half of the territory, with desertification, mainly caused by anthropogenic activities and climatic events, as the main problem in these regions. The present research aimed to assess, identify, and classify arid and semiarid zones by employing a methodology based on multicriteria evaluation analysis (MCA) using the weighted linear combination (WLC) technique and geographic information systems (GIS) in the hydrological administrative regions (HARs) of the North Pacific, Northwest, and Baja California Peninsula, located in Northwest Mexico. Data related to aridity, desertification, degradation, and drought were investigated, and the main factors involved in the aridity process, such as surface temperature, soil humidity, precipitation, slopes, orientations, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and evapotranspiration, were obtained. For the standardization of factors, a fuzzy inference system was used. The weight of each factor was then determined with the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). To delimit arid regions, the classification of arid zones proposed by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) was used, and the result was an aridity suitability map. To validate the results, the sensitivity analysis method was applied. Quantitative and geospatial aridity indicators were obtained at the administrative hydrological level and by state. The main results indicated that semiarid and dry subhumid zones predominated, representing 40% and 43% of the surface of the study area, respectively, while arid regions represented 17%, and humid regions represented less than 1%. In addition, of the states for which 100% of the surface lay in the study area, it was observed that Baja California and Baja California Sur had the largest arid and semiarid zones, while subhumid regions predominated in Sonora and Sinaloa.

Aridity is a condition in which there is a moisture deficit in the air and soil that affects large areas of the earth’s surface worldwide. It is a global problem caused mainly by factors related to climatic events and human actions. In the arid regions of Mexico, prolonged periods of drought are very common and water scarcity is the predominant feature. The main objective of this study is to develop a prospective geospatial simulation model for arid zones in the short and medium term (2030 and 2050) for the northwestern region of Mexico. A retrospective analysis of the variables that cause aridity was conducted based on historical data from satellite information obtained from various sources between 1985 and 2020, taking 2020 as the reference year; from this information the rate of change per year was obtained, followed by the simulated rates of change for the years 2030 and 2050. A methodology used to obtain arid zones using multicriteria evaluation techniques, weighted linear combination, and Geographic Information Systems. In order to generate the prospective model for arid zones, the variables were modeled to adjust the rate of change for each of them, with the same methodology subsequently applied to obtain the base year (2020), and aridity suitability maps were obtained for the years 2030 and 2050. The main results indicate that the prospective scenarios point to an increase in arid regions of 0.38% and 0.70%, respectively, which is equivalent to an area of approximately 240,164.63 km² and 241,760.75 km², respectively. This will cause a decrease in the subhumid–dry and humid regions of 0.10% and 0.19%, respectively, for the projected years. Statistical and geospatial aridity indicators were also generated at different levels, which helps to better understand the problem of aridity in vulnerable regions.

In Mexico, arid regions cover more than half of the territory, with desertification, degradation and droughts being the main problems in these ecosystems, caused mainly by climatic events and anthropogenic activities. The objective of this research was to apply multicriteria assessment (MCE) techniques to model factors that favor the increase in aridity, and to be able to identify areas with different levels of aridity in the Northwest region of Mexico by 2023. The Analytical Hierarchy Method (AHP) and Weighted Linear Summation (WLC) were used in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) environment. The modeling was carried out with satellite images, which were: Temperature, Soil Moisture, Precipitation, Slopes, Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI), Digital Elevation Model (DEM), Vegetation Cover and Evapotranspiration. The results show that thanks to the effective integration of the factors with the EMC technique, regions with different levels of aridity could be identified; the northern and northwestern regions have a greater arid surface area with 41%, while the semi-arid regions, located in the west, represent 30% of the surface area, while the sub-humid regions were located in the southeast with 27% of the surface area.