This review of trends in inland saline lakes of Europe and Central Asia is based on the relevant section of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Regional Assessment Report for Europe and Central Asia (ECA). We assessed the present status of ECA saline lakes and the effects of direct drivers (climate change, land use, pollution, resource exploitation, invasive species) on ecosystem health and biodiversity. We also assessed past, current and future trends using habitat area and degradation, species richness, and endangered species as indicators. No uniform scenario is applicable to saline lakes in the region. The desiccation of the Aral Sea is caused mainly by land use change and water extraction. In the Caspian Sea, river modifications, water pollution, overfishing and poaching, and species invasions have led to a decrease in species richness and have threatened endemic species. Although trends for smaller saline lakes vary, our analysis demonstrates that land use change, over-exploitation, and pollution are more important direct drivers of ecosystem health and biodiversity than climate change. The establishment of baseline biodiversity values for saline lakes is, however, complicated because biodiversity and the food-web structure are variable and depend strongly on salinity. Thus, there is a need to classify the ecological quality, biodiversity and ecosystem services of saline lakes along a salinity gradient. The improvement of water management and reuse of water, conservation measures, and introduction of climate-smart agriculture are basic conditions for the sustainable use of saline lakes in the region.

Since 1976, mean annual temperature in Russia has been rising at 0.47 °C per decade (in the Arctic at 1 °C per decade). This process determines shifts in biome boundaries and large-scale ecosystem restructuring. Biome boundaries should have moved 400 to 500 km northwards in the Arctic and 200 to 300 km northwards in other climate zones and are likely to shift another 200–500 km to the north. Arctic, mountain, steppe, and the Far East ecosystems are the most vulnerable to adverse climate change. Creation of protected areas has become a priority measure for the adaptation of ecosystems. On average, protected areas (PAs) of federal significance account for 7.6 percent of a biome territory across the country. However, in five biomes no PA has been established. For the purpose of effective adaptation to climate change it is advisable to increase the total territory covered by all-category PAs to 17 percent of each biome.

Приводятся результаты исследований наблюдаемых (с 1960 г.) и прогнозируемых (до конца XXI в.) изменений климатических параметров, а также их подтвержденных и вероятных последствий для экосистем, включая трансформацию. В 1960–2021 гг. среднегодовая температура воздуха на территории ХМАО росла со скоростью 0.33–0.52 °С/10 лет, а годовая сумма атмосферных осадков в этот период повышалась со скоростью 3–15 мм/10 лет. Количество опасных гидрометеорологических явлений, связанных с аномально низкими температурами, уменьшилось, связанных с аномально высокими температурами, а также интенсивными осадками и засухами – увеличилось. Интенсивность 19 опасных гидрометеорологических явлений на территории округа достаточна для нанесения существенного ущерба природным системам, включая необратимые изменения. К наиболее опасным относятся: паводки, природные пожары и засухи. Зафиксированы изменения сроков фенологических событий, ареалов видов, в том числе появление видов-вселенцев. Результаты биоклиматического моделирования подтверждают: к середине – концу XXI в. современные границы биомов не будут соответствовать климатическим условиям на большей части территории. Природные условия северной тайги сменятся пригодными для средней, на юге могут создаться предпосылки для развития степей. Такие изменения климата благоприятны для 112 редких видов, находящихся вблизи северной границы распространения, и неблагоприятны для 20 арктических. Потенциальная смена биомов в регионе на более южные будет сопровождаться увеличением биологического разнообразия и продуктивности экосистем. The article presents the analysis of both observed (1960–present) and modeled (present–2100) changes in climate parameters, and their observed and probable consequences for ecosystems, including transformation. In 1960–2021, the average annual air temperature in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug Yugra (KhMAO) was increasing as 0.33–0.52 °C/10 years, the annual amount of precipitation, as 3–15 mm/10 years. The number of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena associated with abnormally low temperatures has decreased, while those associated with abnormally high temperatures, intense precipitation and droughts, have increased. The intensity of 19 dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena in the area is sufficient to cause significant damage to natural systems, including irreversible changes. The floods, wildfires, and droughts are the most dangerous. Changes in the timing of phenological events and shifts in the species ranges, including the emergence of invasive species, have been recorded. The results of bioclimatic modeling confirm that in the second half of the XXI century, the current boundaries of biomes will not correspond to the climatic conditions on most of the studied territory. The natural conditions of the northern taiga will be replaced by those observed for the middle taiga; in the southern areas, preconditions for steppe formation may emerge. Such climate change is favorable for 112 rare species with northern border of ranges located in KhMAO, but they are unfavorable for 20 arctic species. The potential change of biomes in the region to become of the southern (warmer) type will be accompanied by an increase in biological diversity and productivity of ecosystems.

The Caspian Sea level (CSL) is rapidly declining, and this decline is providing a serious negative impact on the economies, population, and ecosystems of the countries in the Caspian region. This research aims to assess the relationship between the current changes in the level of the Caspian Sea and some climate changes in the sea basin using the data on the evolution of air, water and land surface temperatures, precipitation, and the Volga River flow. Since 1970, average annual air temperature in the Caspian region has been rising. Comparison with the changes in the CSL as recorded by a gauging station in Makhachkala shows that since 2000 there has been a meaningful moderate negative relationship between the level of the Caspian Sea and the surface temperature both in the Caspian region and the Volga basin. The CSL is falling, as the average annual surface temperature grows in both regions. The Volga flow has a positive low, but meaningful, correlation with the CSL. No meaningful correlation, however, has been detected between average annual precipitation values in the two regions or with any other parameters. None of the climate factors considered, individually or collectively, can explain the rise in the CSL in the 1980-1990s, although the rising temperatures and decreasing Volga flow as observed today are consistent with a decrease in the level of the Caspian Sea. Increased precipitation in the Volga basin is the only climate factor that works to stabilize the CSL.