Emergence of Dengue Virus Serotype 2 Cosmopolitan Genotype, Brazil

The emergence and reemergence of mosquito-borne diseases in Brazil such as yellow fever, zika, chikungunya, and dengue have had serious impacts on public health. Concerns have been raised due to the rapid dissemination of the chikungunya virus across the country since its first detection in 2014 in Northeast Brazil. In this work, we carried out on-site training activities in genomic surveillance in partnership with the National Network of Public Health Laboratories that have led to the generation of 422 chikungunya virus genomes from 12 Brazilian states over the past two years (2021–2022), a period that has seen more than 312 thousand chikungunya fever cases reported in the country. These genomes increased the amount of available data and allowed a more comprehensive characterization of the dispersal dynamics of the chikungunya virus East-Central-South-African lineage in Brazil. Tree branching patterns revealed the emergence and expansion of two distinct subclades. Phylogeographic analysis indicated that the northeast region has been the leading hub of virus spread towards other regions. Increased frequency of C > T transitions among the new genomes suggested that host restriction factors from the immune system such as ADAR and AID/APOBEC deaminases might be driving the genetic diversity of the chikungunya virus in Brazil.

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) has caused worldwide epidemics that impose a major burden on health systems. Approximately half of infected individuals develop chronic debilitating arthralgia, affecting their quality of life. Here, we identified the relevant clinical and demographic variables in the acute phase of CHIKV infection prospectively linked to chronic arthralgia to elaborate a prognostic scoring system. Acute CHIKV infection cases (n = 134) confirmed by serology or molecular test were examined <10 days of disease onset and followed for one year to evaluate for disease progression. Potential risk factors for chronic arthralgia were evaluated by multivariate analysis to develop a prognostic scoring system, which was subsequently tested in an independent validation cohort consisting of 42 individuals. A total of 107 out of 134 (80%) acute CHIKV-confirmed cases from the derivation cohort were re-examined one year after enrollment. Chronic arthralgia post-CHIKV infection was diagnosed in 64 (60%). Five of the 12 parameters evaluated in the acute phase were statistically associated with persistent arthralgia and were further tested by Bayesian analysis. These variables were weighted to yield a prognosis score denominated SHERA (Sex, Hypertension, Edema, Retroocular pain, Age), which exhibited 81.3% accuracy in predicting long-term arthralgia post-CHIKV infection in the derivation cohort, and 76.5% accuracy in the validation cohort. The simplified and externally validated prognostic scoring system, SHERA, is a useful method to screen acutely CHIKV-infected patients at elevated risk of chronic arthralgia who will benefit from specific interventions. This tool could guide public health policies, particularly in resource-constrained settings. Debilitating articular pain frequently occurs as a consequence of Chikungunya virus infection, affecting individuals' quality of life for a long time. Here we present a simple tool to predict people at risk to remain with long-term articular pain after Chikungunya infection. We evaluated 134 patients acutely affected by Chikungunya virus searching for characteristics previously described as related to persistent symptoms. We examined about 80% of those individuals after one year to identify those with persistent arthralgia. We detected five features that represent good predictors and developed a scoring system named SHERA (www.sheracalculator.com/shera), the acronyms of Sex (female), Hypertension, Edema, Retroocular pain and Age (>26y). SHERA can correctly predict 8 out of every 10 Chikungunya infected individuals that will persist with articular pain symptoms at least one year after disease onset. These results were confirmed in the second group of patients from another city affected by Chikungunya outbreak. The easy-to-use scoring system can be applied in areas with limited access to health support, helping to identify the ones who will need special care and benefit from early intervention.

In 2015, during the outbreak of Zika virus (ZIKV) in Brazil, we identified 3 cases of acute hearing loss after exanthematous illness. Serology yielded finding compatible with ZIKV as the cause of a confirmed (n = 1) and a probable (n = 2) flavivirus infection, indicating an association between ZIKV infection and transient hearing loss.

Background: Despite widespread availability of curative therapy, tuberculosis (TB) treatment outcomes remain suboptimal. Clinical prediction models can inform treatment strategies to improve outcomes. Using baseline clinical data, we developed a prediction model for unsuccessful TB treatment outcome and evaluated the incremental value of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–related severity and isoniazid acetylator status. Methods: Data originated from the Regional Prospective Observational Research for Tuberculosis Brazil cohort, which enrolled newly diagnosed TB patients in Brazil from 2015 through 2019. This analysis included participants with culture-confirmed, drug-susceptible pulmonary TB who started first-line anti-TB therapy and had ≥12 months of follow-up. The end point was unsuccessful TB treatment: composite of death, treatment failure, regimen switch, incomplete treatment, or not evaluated. Missing predictors were imputed. Predictors were chosen via bootstrapped backward selection. Discrimination and calibration were evaluated with c-statistics and calibration plots, respectively. Bootstrap internal validation estimated overfitting, and a shrinkage factor was applied to improve out-of-sample prediction. Incremental value was evaluated with likelihood ratio–based measures. Results: Of 944 participants, 191 (20%) had unsuccessful treatment outcomes. The final model included 7 baseline predictors: hemoglobin, HIV infection, drug use, diabetes, age, education, and tobacco use. The model demonstrated good discrimination (c-statistic = 0.77; 95% confidence interval, .73–.80) and was well calibrated (optimism-corrected intercept and slope, –0.12 and 0.89, respectively). HIV-related factors and isoniazid acetylation status did not improve prediction of the final model. Conclusions: Using information readily available at treatment initiation, the prediction model performed well in this population. The findings may guide future work to allocate resources or inform targeted interventions for high-risk patients.

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), a reemerging global public health concern, which causes acute febrile illness, rash, and arthralgia and may affect both mothers and infants during pregnancy. Mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of CHIKV in Africa remains understudied. Our cohort study screened 1006 pregnant women with a Zika/dengue/CHIKV rapid test at two clinics in Nigeria between 2019 and 2022. Women who tested positive for the rapid test were followed through their pregnancy and their infants were observed for 6 months, with a subset tested by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and neutralization, to investigate seropositivity rates and MTCT of CHIKV. Of the 1006, 119 tested positive for CHIKV immunoglobulin (Ig)M, of which 36 underwent detailed laboratory tests. While none of the IgM reactive samples were RT-PCR positive, 14 symptomatic pregnant women were confirmed by CHIKV neutralization test. Twelve babies were followed with eight normal and four abnormal outcomes, including stillbirth, cleft lip/palate with microcephaly, preterm delivery, polydactyly with sepsis, and jaundice. CHIKV IgM testing identified three possible antepartum transmissions. In Nigeria, we found significant CHIKV infection in pregnancy and possible CHIKV antepartum transmission associated with birth abnormalities.