The health sector faces a series of problems generated by patients who miss their scheduled appointments. The main challenge to this problem is to understand the patient’s profile and predict potential absences. The goal of this work is to explore the main causes that contribute to a patient’s no-show and develop a prediction model able to identify whether the patient will attend their scheduled appointment or not. The study was based on data from clinics that serve the Unified Health System (SUS) at the University of Vale do Itajaí in southern Brazil. The model obtained was tested on a real collected dataset with about 5000 samples. The best model result was performed by the Random Forest classifier. It had the best Recall Rate (0.91) and achieved an ROC curve rate of 0.969. This research was approved and authorized by the Ethics Committee of the University of Vale do Itajaí, under opinion 4270,234, contemplating the General Data Protection Law.

No-show appointments in healthcare is a problem faced by medical centers around the world, and understanding the factors associated with no-show behavior is essential. In recent decades, artificial intelligence has taken place in the medical field and machine learning algorithms can now work as an efficient tool to understand the patients’ behavior and to achieve better medical appointment allocation in scheduling systems. In this work, we provide a systematic literature review (SLR) of machine learning techniques applied to no-show appointments aiming at establishing the current state-of-the-art. Based on an SLR following the PRISMA procedure, 24 articles were found and analyzed, in which the characteristics of the database, algorithms and performance metrics of each study were synthesized. Results regarding which factors have a higher impact on missed appointment rates were analyzed too. The results indicate that the most appropriate algorithms for building the models are decision tree algorithms. Furthermore, the most significant determinants of no-show were related to the patient’s age, whether the patient missed a previous appointment, and the distance between the appointment and the patient’s scheduling.

No-show appointments in healthcare is a problem faced by medical centers around the world, and understand the factors associated with the no-show behavior is essential. In the last decades, artificial intelligence took place in the medical field and machine learning algorithms can work as a efficient tool to understand the patients behavior and to achieve better medical appointment allocation in scheduling systems. In this work, we provide a systematic literature review (SLR) of machine learning techniques applied to no-show appointments aiming at establishing the current state-of-the-art. Based on a SLR following the Kitchenham methodology, 24 articles were found and analyzed, in which the characteristics of the database, algorithms and performance metrics of each studies were synthesized. Results regarding which factors have a higher impact on missed appointment rates were analyzed too. The results indicate that the most appropriate algorithms for building the models are decision tree algorithms. Furthermore, the most significant determinants of no-show were related to the patients age, whether the patient missed a previous appointment, and the distance between the appointment and the patients scheduling.

Today, across the most critical problems faced by hospitals and health centers are those caused by the existence of patients who do not attend their appointments. Among others, this practice generates waste of resources and increases the patients’ waiting list. To handle these problems, hospitals are actively trying to implement methods to reduce the idle time caused by patient no-shows. Many scheduling systems developed require predicting whether a patient will show up for an appointment or not. Although, a challenging problem resides in obtaining these estimates precisely. The goal of this work is to analyze how objective factors influence a patient not to attending their appointment, to identify the main causes that contribute to a patient’s decision, and to be able to predict whether or not the patient will attend the scheduled appointment. As a result, the obtained model is tested on a real dataset collected in a health center linked to the University of Vale do Itajaí (UNIVALI), which includes 25 features and about 5000 samples. The algorithm that produced the best results for the available dataset is the Random Forest classifier. It reveals the best recall rate (0.91), since it measures the ability of a classifier to find all the positive instances and achieves a receiver operating characteristic curve rate of 0.969.