When conducting an analysis of nature’s time series, such as meteorological ones, an important matter is a long-range dependence to quantify the global behavior of the series and connect it with other physical characteristics of the region of study. In this paper, we applied the Higuchi fractal dimension and the Hurst exponent (rescaled range) to quantify the relative trend underlying the time series of historical data from 17 of the 34 weather stations located in the Río Bravo-San Juan Basin, Mexico; these data were provided by the National Water Commission CONAGUA) in Mexico. In this way, this work aims to perform a comparative study about the level of persistency obtained by using the Higuchi fractal dimension and Hurst exponent for each station of the basin. The comparison is supported by a climate clustering of the stations, according to the Köppen classification. Results showed a better fitting between the climate of each station and its Higuchi fractal dimension obtained than when using the Hurst exponent. In fact, we found that the more the aridity of the zone the more the persistency of rainfall, according to Higuchi’s values. In turn, we found more relation between the Hurst exponent and the accumulated amount of rainfall. These are relations between the climate and the long-term persistency of rainfall in the basin that could help to better understand and complete the climatological models of the study region. Trends between the fractal exponents used and the accumulated annual rainfall were also analyzed.
Variogram models are a valuable tool used to analyze the variability of a time series; such variability usually entails a spherical or exponential behavior, and so, models based on such functions are commonly used to fit and explain a time series. Variograms have a quasi-periodic structure for rainfall cases, and some extra steps are required to analyze their entire behavior. In this work, we detailed a procedure for a complete analysis of rainfall time series, from the construction of the experimental variogram to curve fitting with well-known spherical and exponential models, and finally proposed a novel model: quadratic–exponential. Our model was developed based on the analysis of 6 out of 30 rainfall stations from our case study: the Río Bravo–San Juan basin, and was constructed from the exponential model while introducing a quadratic behavior near to the origin and taking into account the fact that the maximal variability of the process is known. Considering a sample with diverse Hurst exponents, the stations were selected. The results obtained show robustness in our proposed model, reaching a good fit with and without the nugget effect for different Hurst exponents. This contrasts to previous models, which show good outcomes only without the nugget effect.
28 January 2019 in Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics
The aerodynamic forces acting on a baseball are those produced by the contact between the ball and the air, and are defined by the initial conditions of the pitch. It is well known that such forces determine the changes from the typical parabolic ballistic trajectory, either in the direction of the movement of the ball (drag force), or producing a lift or lateral deflection (Magnus and seam forces). The drag and Magnus effects have been widely studied and there are many references about their nature and the trajectory they produce, which is predictable. This has led to most baseball research being related with spinning pitches. On the other hand, there is the unpredictable motion of a knuckleball, whose erratic trajectory accompanied by a poor understanding of the forces produced by the asymmetry of the seams had markedly limited research about it until the beginning of this century. However, nowadays interest in the knuckleball is resurfacing. Data collected by wind tunnel experiments and real pitches have motivated researchers to analyze the phenomenon and build models that try to predict the motion of the ball. In this work we aim to provide the reader some basic ideas on aerodynamic forces through a combination of experimental results, phenomenological and dimensional analysis, with special focus on new advances on the seam effects of a knuckleball pitch. In addition, we discuss possible ways to extend the existing models about the seam forces. Finally, we summarize from the literature some methods regarding the reproduction and reconstruction of baseball trajectories from aerodynamic forces and discuss their application as well.
Spiker–blocker encounters are a key moment for determining the result of a volleyball rally. The characterization of such a moment using physical–statistical parameters allows us to reproduce the possible ball’s trajectory and then make calculations to set up the defense in an optimal way. In this work, we present a computational algorithm that shows the possible worst scenarios of ball trajectories for a volleyball defense, in terms of the covered area by the block and the impact time of the backcourt defense to contact the ball before it reaches the floor. The algorithm is based on the kinematic equations of motion, trigonometry, and statistical parameters of the players. We have called it the Attack-Block-Court Defense algorithm (the ABCD algorithm), since it only requires the 3D-coordinates of the attacker and the blocker, and a discretized court in a number of cells. With those data, the algorithm calculates the percentage of the covered area by the blocker and the time at which the ball impacts the court (impact time). More specifically, the structure of the algorithm consists of setting up the spiker’s and blocker’s locations at the time the spiker hits the ball, and then applying the kinematic equations to calculate the worst scenario for the team in defense. The case of a middle-hitter attack with a single block over the net is simulated, and an analysis of the space of input variables for such a case is performed. We found a strong dependence on the average impact time and the covered area on both the attack–block height’s ratio and the attack height. The standard deviation of the impact time was the variable that showed more asymmetry, respecting the input variables. An asymmetric case considering more variables with a wing spiker and three blockers is also shown, in order to illustrate the potential of the model in a more complex scenario. The results have potential applications, as a supporting tool for coaches in the design of customized defense or attack systems, in the positioning of players according to the prior knowledge of the opponent team, and in the development of replay and video-game technologies in multimedia systems.
Air-quality monitoring and analysis are initial parts of a comprehensive strategy to prevent air pollution in cities. In such a context, statistical tools play an important role in determining the time-series trends, locating areas with high pollutant concentrations, and building predictive models. In this work, we analyzed the spatio-temporal behavior of the pollutant PM10 in the Monterrey Metropolitan Area (MMA), Mexico during the period 2010–2018 by applying statistical analysis to the time series of seven environmental stations. First, we used experimental variograms and scientific visualization to determine the general trends and variability in time. Then, fractal exponents (the Hurst rescaled range and Higuchi algorithm) were used to analyze the long-term dependence of the time series and characterize the study area by correlating that dependence with the geographical parameters of each environmental station. The results suggest a linear decrease in PM10 concentration, which showed an annual cyclicity. The autumn-winter period was the most polluted and the spring-summer period was the least. Furthermore, it was found that the highest average concentrations are located in the western and high-altitude zones of the MMA, and that average concentration is related in a quadratic way to the Hurst and Higuchi exponents, which in turn are related to some geographic parameters. Therefore, in addition to the results for the MMA, the present paper shows three practical statistical methods for analyzing the spatio-temporal behavior of air quality.