POSSUM (Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Morbidity and mortality) has been studied as a possible surgical audit system for a 9-month interval using a sample of 28 per cent of the general surgical workload. Mortality or survival was analysed as an endpoint. In this sample the published POSSUM predictor equation for mortality overpredicted deaths by a factor of more than two. The bulk of the overprediction occurred in the group at lowest risk (predicted mortality 10 per cent or less), in which death was overpredicted by a factor of six. This is the most important group for audit purposes since it contains the majority of surgical patients and is composed of fit patients undergoing minor surgery. The published predictor equation for mortality returns a minimum predicted mortality of 1·08 per cent, clearly far higher than that expected for a fit patient having minor surgery. Logistic regression was done on a set of 1485 surgical episodes to generate a local predictor equation for mortality. This process gave a predictor equation that fitted well with the observed mortality rate and gave a minimum predicted risk of mortality of 0·20 per cent. The previously published POSSUM predictor equation for mortality performed badly when tested using a standard test of goodness of fit for logistic regression and must be modified.

Cyanoacrylate (CA) embolization of refluxing great saphenous veins (GSVs) has been previously described. The outcomes from a multicenter study are still lacking. A prospective multicenter study was conducted in seven centers in four European countries to abolish GSV reflux by endovenous CA embolization. Neither tumescent anesthesia nor postinterventional compression stockings were used. Varicose tributaries remained untreated until at least 3 months after the index treatment. Clinical examination, quality of life assessment, and duplex ultrasound evaluation were performed at 2 days and after 1, 3, 6, and 12 months. In 70 patients, of whom 68 (97.1%) were available for 12-month follow-up, 70 GSVs were treated. Two-day follow-up showed one proximal and one distal partial recanalization. Three additional proximal recanalizations were observed at 3-month (n = 2) and 6-month (n = 1) follow-up. Cumulative 12-month survival free from recanalization was 92.9% (95% confidence interval, 87.0%-99.1%). Mean (standard deviation) Venous Clinical Severity Score improved from 4.3 ± 2.3 at baseline to 1.1 ± 1.3 at 12 months. Aberdeen Varicose Vein Questionnaire score showed an improvement from 16.3 at baseline to 6.7 at 12 months (P < .0001). Side effects were generally mild; a phlebitic reaction occurred in eight cases (11.4%) with a median duration of 6.5 days (range, 2-12 days). Pain without a phlebitic reaction was observed in five patients (8.6%) for a median duration of 1 day (range, 0 -12 days). No serious adverse event occurred. Paresthesia was not observed. Endovenous CA embolization of refluxing GSVs is safe and effective without the use of tumescent anesthesia or compression stockings.