It has recently been shown that structural conditions on the reaction network, rather than a ‘fine-tuning’ of system parameters, often suffice to impart ‘absolute concentration robustness’ (ACR) on a wide class of biologically relevant, deterministically modelled mass-action systems. We show here that fundamentally different conclusions about the long-term behaviour of such systems are reached if the systems are instead modelled with stochastic dynamics and a discrete state space. Specifically, we characterize a large class of models that exhibit convergence to a positive robust equilibrium in the deterministic setting, whereas trajectories of the corresponding stochastic models are necessarily absorbed by a set of states that reside on the boundary of the state space, i.e. the system undergoes an extinction event. If the time to extinction is large relative to the relevant timescales of the system, the process will appear to settle down to a stationary distribution long before the inevitable extinction will occur. This quasi-stationary distribution is considered for two systems taken from the literature, and results consistent with ACR are recovered by showing that the quasi-stationary distribution of the robust species approaches a Poisson distribution.

We present conditions which guarantee a parametrization of the set of positive equilibria of a generalized mass-action system. Our main results state that (1) if the underlying generalized chemical reaction network has an effective deficiency of zero, then the set of positive equilibria coincides with the parametrized set of complex-balanced equilibria and (2) if the network is weakly reversible and has a kinetic deficiency of zero, then the equilibrium set is nonempty and has a positive, typically rational, parametrization. Via the method of network translation, we apply our results to classical mass-action systems studied in the biochemical literature, including the EnvZ–OmpR and shuttled WNT signaling pathways. A parametrization of the set of positive equilibria of a (generalized) mass-action system is often a prerequisite for the study of multistationarity and allows an easy check for the occurrence of absolute concentration robustness, as we demonstrate for the EnvZ–OmpR pathway.

We introduce a novel modeling framework for incorporating fear of infection and frustration with social distancing into disease dynamics. We show that the resulting SEIR behavior-perception model has three principal modes of qualitative behavior—no outbreak, controlled outbreak, and uncontrolled outbreak. We also demonstrate that the model can produce transient and sustained waves of infection consistent with secondary outbreaks. We fit the model to cumulative COVID-19 case and mortality data from several regions. Our analysis suggests that regions which experience a significant decline after the first wave of infection, such as Canada and Israel, are more likely to contain secondary waves of infection, whereas regions which only achieve moderate success in mitigating the disease's spread initially, such as the United States, are likely to experience substantial secondary waves or uncontrolled outbreaks.