This study investigates the impact of geopolitical risk, firm characteristics, and macroeconomic variables on the performance of non-financial firms listed on the Egyptian Stock Exchange. The study analyzes a panel dataset consisting of 182 Egyptian firms over the period 2014–2023. Using the panel Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) regression technique, the study examines the effect of geopolitical risk on the return on assets. This study controls for firm characteristics such as liquidity, leverage, and growth opportunities and controls for macroeconomic variables such as inflation and GDP. This empirical evidence investigates the moderating role of FinTech on such relationship. The results reveal a significant and negative relationship between geopolitical risk and firms’ performance. Liquidity, growth opportunities, and inflation show positive and significant impacts. In contrast, leverage and GDP demonstrate significant negative relationships. Remarkably, FinTech moderates the relationship significantly and positively. Therefore, investors ought to proceed with prudence when positioning cash within elevated political volatility. The significant positive moderating effect of FinTech on this connection provides a vital strategic insight: enterprises with enhanced FinTech integration may demonstrate increased resilience to geopolitical shocks.

This paper investigates the impact of geopolitical risk, company traits, and macroeconomic factors on the stock returns of Egyptian Stock Exchange-listed financial institutions. During the period 2014–2023, the research examines a panel dataset including ten Egyptian financial institutions. The study investigates the impact of geopolitical risk, liquidity risk, profitability, growth possibilities, capital adequacy, inflation, and GDP on stock returns using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) regression technique. The findings show a significant and favorable connection between geopolitical risk and stock returns. Positive and significant effects on stock returns also come from profitability, expansion prospects, capital adequacy, and inflation. By comparison, GDP and liquidity risk show rather strong negative correlations with stock returns. Policymakers, bank management, and investors should all benefit from the results. Understanding how geopolitics and liquidity concerns influence stock performance can guide regulatory policies, risk management techniques, and investment strategies aimed at stabilizing the financial system in unstable environments. This research contributes to the limited body of literature examining how geopolitical risk affects stock returns in Egypt, an emerging economy. It emphasizes the important role that internal bank features play in building financial resilience against external shocks.