To provide real-time prediction of wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent water quality, a machine learning (ML) model was developed by combining an improved feedforward neural network (IFFNN) with an optimization algorithm. Data used as input variables of the IFFNN included hourly influent water quality parameters, influent flow rate and WWTP process monitoring and operational parameters. Additionally, input variables included historical effluent water quality parameters for future prediction. The model was demonstrated in a WWTP in Jiangsu Province, China, where prediction of effluent chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total nitrogen (TN) with large variations were tested. Relative to the traditional feedforward neural network (FFNN) model without considering historical effluent water quality parameter input, the IFFNN enhanced prediction performance by 52.3% (COD) and 72.6% (TN) based on the mean absolute percentage errors of test datasets, after its model structure was optimized with a genetic algorithm (GA). The problem of over-fitting could also be overcome through the use of the IFFNN, with the determination of coefficient increased from 0.20 to 0.76 for test datasets of effluent COD. The GA-IFFNN model, which was efficient in capturing complex non-linear relationships and extrapolation, could be a useful tool for real-time direction of regulatory changes in WWTP operations.

• The P-ED-LSTM structure enhanced the prediction accuracy under shock loading events. • The higher quantile of the probability prediction matched better with real effluent quality. • The P-ED-LSTM model outperformed the classical deep learning models by 49.7%. • The P-ED-LSTM model captured 90% of actual over-limit discharges up to 6 hours ahead.