Condition Correlation of Coral Reef and Abundance of Indicators Reef Fish in Mandrajaya Water Ciletuh Geopark West Java

Ocean warming, driven by increasing sea surface temperatures, is a key factor altering the distribution of pelagic fish, notably the Eastern Little Tuna or ELT (Euthynnus affinis). This study examined satellite-derived SST data and ELT catches to determine the SST preferences of ELT and to predict their potential habitat in scenarios where SST increases by 1 and 2ºC. We analyzed all datasets from January 2015 to December 2020. The findings indicated that most ELT caught in an SST ranged from 30 to 31ºC during the first transitional season (TS 1/March-May). The wavelet analysis confirmed that SST has a strong interseasonal (6-8 months) signal along the observation period. Similarly, ELT catches also exhibited strong interseasonal signals, particularly from the middle of 2018 to the middle of 2019, and intra-seasonal patterns from early 2015 to the middle of 2019 (1 – 6 months). The monthly mean climatology of SST during 2015 – 2020 with the SST value of 30 - 31ºC designated as the preferred habitat of ELT is found every month, especially in January-April. The habitat preference for ELT seemed to be reduced under a scenario of increasing 1ºC and 2ºC. Furthermore, our results revealed that increasing SST due to ocean warming may shift the fishing season and shorten its length from six to three months. These insights enhance our comprehension of how ocean warming impacts ELT's potential habitat in the Makassar Strait, informing improved fisheries management and climate change mitigation.