Exploring the spatial distribution of land use/cover change (LUCC) and ecosystem carbon storage under future climate change scenarios can provide the scientific basis for optimizing land resource redistribution and formulating policies for sustainable socioeconomic development. We proposed a framework that integrates the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) model to assess the spatiotemporal dynamic changes in LUCC and ecosystem carbon storage in Guangdong based on shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP-RCP) scenarios provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). The future simulation results showed that the distribution patterns of LUCC were similar under SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios, but the artificial surface expanded more rapidly, and the increase in forest land slowed down under the SPP245 scenario. Conversely, under the SSP585 scenario, the sharply expanded artificial surface resulted in a continuous decrease in forest land. Under the three scenarios, population, elevation, temperature, and distance to water were the highest contributing driving factors for the growth of cultivated land, forest land, grassland, and artificial surface, respectively. By 2060, the carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems increased from 240.89 Tg in 2020 to 247.16 Tg and 243.54 Tg under SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios, respectively, of which forest ecosystem carbon storage increased by 17.65 Tg and 15.34 Tg, respectively; while it decreased to 226.54 Tg under the SSP585 scenario, and the decreased carbon storage due to forest destruction accounted for 81.05% of the total decreased carbon storage. Overall, an important recommendation from this study is that ecosystem carbon storage can be increased by controlling population and economic growth, and balancing urban expansion and ecological conservation, as well as increasing forest land area.

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes resulting from rapid urbanization are the foremost causes of increases in land surface temperature (LST) in urban areas. Exploring the impact of LULC changes on the spatiotemporal patterns of LST under future climate change scenarios is critical for sustainable urban development. This study aimed to project the LST of Nanjing for 2025 and 2030 under different climate change scenarios using simulated LULC and land coverage indicators. Thermal infrared data from Landsat images were used to derive spatiotemporal patterns of LST in Nanjing from 1990 to 2020. The patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model was applied to simulate the LULC of Nanjing for 2025 and 2030 using historical LULC data and spatial driving factors. We simulated the corresponding land coverage indicators using simulated LULC data. We then generated LSTs for 2025 and 2030 under different climate change scenarios by applying regression relationships between LST and land coverage indicators. The results show that the LST of Nanjing has been increasing since 1990, with the mean LST increased from 23.44 °C in 1990 to 25.40 °C in 2020, and the mean LST estimated to reach 26.73 °C in 2030 (SSP585 scenario, integrated scenario of SSP5 and RCP5.8). There were significant differences in the LST under different climate scenarios, with increases in LST gradually decreasing under the SSP126 scenario (integrated scenario of SSP1 and RCP2.6). LST growth was similar to the historical trend under the SSP245 scenario (integrated scenario of SSP2 and RCP4.5), and an extreme increase in LST was observed under the SSP585 scenario. Our results suggest that the increase in impervious surface area is the main reason for the LST increase and urban heat island (UHI) effect. Overall, we proposed a method to project future LST considering land use change effects and provide reasonable LST scenarios for Nanjing, which may be useful for mitigating the UHI effect.

Exploring the spatial and temporal dynamic characteristics of regional forest net primary productivity (NPP) in the context of global climate change can not only provide a theoretical basis for terrestrial carbon cycle studies, but also provide data support for medium- and long-term sustainable management planning of regional forests. In this study, we took Shaoguan City, Guangdong Province, China as the study area, and used Landsat images and National Forest Continuous Inventory (NFCI) data in the corresponding years as the main data sources. Random forest (RF), multiple linear regression (MLR), and BP neural network were the three models applied to estimate forest NPP in the study area. Theil–Sen estimation, Mann–Kendall trend analysis and the standard deviation ellipse (SDE) were chosen to analyze the spatial and temporal dynamic characteristics of NPP, whereas structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to analyze the driving factors of NPP changes. The results show that the performance of the RF model is better than the MLR and BP neural network models. The NPP in the study area showed an increasing trend, as the NPP was 5.66 t·hm⁻²·a⁻¹, 7.68 t·hm⁻²·a⁻¹, 8.17 t·hm⁻²·a⁻¹, 8.25 t·hm⁻²·a⁻¹, and 10.52 t·hm⁻²·a⁻¹ in 1997, 2002, 2007, 2012, and 2017, respectively. Spatial aggregation of NPP was increased in the period of 1997–2017, and the center shifted from the mid-west to the southwest. In addition, the forest stand factors had the greatest effect on NPP in the study area. The forest stand factors and environmental factors had a positive effect on NPP, and understory factors had a negative effect. Overall, although forest NPP has fluctuated due to the changes of forestry policies and human activities, forest NPP in Shaoguan has been increasing. In the future, the growth potential of NPP in Shaoguan City can be further increased by continuously expanding the area proportion of mixed forests and rationalizing the forest age group structure.

Evaluating the long-term urban forest ecological environmental quality (EEQ) and analyzing the drivers of its spatiotemporal changes can provide a scientific basis for making long-term urban forest planning decisions. Taking into account the characteristics of urban forest parks with low area proportions of construction land and bare land, high vegetation coverage, and serious forest disturbances, we constructed a modified urban forest park EEQ evaluation index based on a remote sensing ecological index named MRSEI, which is composed of the Landsat enhanced vegetation index (EVI), wetness, land surface temperature (LST), and forest disturbance index (FDI). We selected the Nanjing Zijin Mountain National Forest Park as the study area, used landsat time series stack (LTSS) remote sensing images from 1990 to 2020 as the main data source, and adopted the suggested modified MRSEI, the Theil-Sen median method, and the Hurst index to evaluate the EEQ to analyze its spatiotemporal variations and its driving factors in the study area. The main research results were as follows: (1) the EEQ of Zijin Mountain showed an up-and-down, overall slowly increasing trend from 1990 to 2020, while the spatial auto-correlation coefficient showed an overall decreasing trend; (2) the area percentage of the EEQ-persistent region accounted for 78.69%, and the anti-sustainable region accounted for 21.31%; (3) the spatial centers of the EEQ in the study area were mainly concentrated on the middle and upper part of the southern slope of Zijin Mountain, moving southward from 1990 to 2020; (4) the analysis of drivers showed that climate factors, forest landscape structure, forest disturbances, and forest growth conditions were the main driving factors affecting the EEQ in the study area. These results provide a research framework for the analysis of EEQ changes over a long-term period in the urban forest parks of China.

Exploring the temporal and spatial changes, as well as driving factors, of net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystems is essential for maintaining regional carbon balance. This work focuses on the spatiotemporal variation and future trends of NPP and the response mechanisms of NPP to various driving factors. The Theil–Sen estimator, as well as Mann–Kendall and Hurst exponent methods, were used to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics and future trends of NPP, and geographical detectors and correlation analysis were used to reveal the response of NPP to various driver changes to environmental factors. The results showed that the NPP was generally on an increasing trend in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2000 to 2019, with the average NPP value of 550.17 g C m⁻² a⁻¹, of which 85.90% was the increasing regions and 14.10% was the decreasing regions, showing a significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity characteristic. The trend of future changes in NPP is dominated by an anti-persistence trend in the study area, i.e., the opposite of the past trend. Notably, annual precipitation is the most significant positive driver of NPP; while NPP was negatively correlated with population, meanwhile, different land use/land cover (LULC) also significantly affected the spatial distribution of NPP. Besides, there was a two-factor enhanced interaction between the various drivers on NPP, with the highest interaction occurring between temperature and elevation. Overall, this study provides data support for future regional NPP predictions and ecosystem evaluations.

In recent years, on-site visitation has been strictly restricted in many scenic areas due to the global spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. “Cloud tourism”, also called online travel, uses high-resolution photographs taken by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) as the dominant data source and has attracted much attention. Due to the differences between ground and aerial observation perspectives, the landscape elements that affect the beauty of colored-leaved forests are quite different. In this paper, Qixia National Forest Park in Nanjing, China, was chosen as the case study area, and the best viewpoints were selected by combining tourists’ preferred viewing routes with a field survey, followed by a scenic beauty evaluation (SBE) of the forests with autumn-colored leaves in 2021 from the aerial and ground perspectives. The results show that (1) the best viewpoints can be obtained through the spatial overlay of five landscape factors: elevation, surface runoff, slope, aspect, and distance from the road; (2) the dominant factors influencing the beauty of colored-leaved forests from the aerial perspective are terrain changes, forest coverage, landscape composition, landscape contrast, the condition of the human landscape, and recreation frequency; and (3) the beauty of the ground perspective of the colored-leaved forests is strongly influenced by the average diameter at breast height (DBH), the dominant color of the leaves, the ratio of the colored-leaved tree species, the canopy width, and the fallen leaf coverage. The research results can provide scientific reference for the creation of management measures for forests with autumn-colored leaves.