There is a lot of research on the neural models used for short-term load forecasting (STLF), which is crucial for improving the sustainable operation of energy systems with increasing technical, economic, and environmental requirements. Neural networks are computationally powerful; however, the lack of clear, readable and trustworthy justification of STLF obtained using such models is a serious problem that needs to be tackled. The article proposes an approach based on the local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME) method that supports reliable premises justifying and explaining the forecasts. The use of the proposed approach makes it possible to improve the reliability of heuristic and experimental neural modeling processes, the results of which are difficult to interpret. Explaining the forecasting may facilitate the justification of the selection and the improvement of neural models for STLF, while contributing to a better understanding of the obtained results and broadening the knowledge and experience supporting the enhancement of energy systems security based on reliable forecasts and simplifying dispatch decisions.
Poland is not one of the leaders in the use of renewable energy sources (RES), and most energy is still produced using hard coal and lignite. Therefore, there are noteworthy emissions of air pollution (including ashes and greenhouse gases), and the Polish energy sector is characterized by a substantial degree of carbonization, which, as a result, threatens to expressively increase the costs of electricity production, leading to financial penalties imposed by the EU. The aim of this paper is to analyze socio-economic factors influencing the development of the RES sector in Poland. According to this aim, expert research was carried out, in which the factors influencing development potential of RES were assessed at two levels (level II – 5 factors, level III – 15 factors) according to the factor tree analysis. Based on the analysis of the level II factors, it can be concluded that the development of the RES sector in Poland will depend to a decisive extent on factors such as: EU decisions and Polish legislation affecting the development of the RES sector in Poland, prices and availability of conventional energy carriers. Other two factors – regional policy on ecology and ecological awareness in Poland – have so far little impact on the development of this sector in the state. The analysis of the level III factors shows that the greatest impact on the development of the RES sector in Poland is the influence of European lobbying of manufacturers of machinery and equipment for renewable energy production on EU law, the impact of Polish lobbying of conventional energy producers on Polish law in the production of renewable energy and the influence of European lobbying of renewable energy producers into EU law.
1 March 2020 in Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues
This paper concerns a current problem of multifaceted evaluation of investment projects. Information that contains the actual value of the initiated investment is often the basis for making decisions regarding its further implementation, especially when significant changes occur in the project's environment. The process of project evaluation should therefore include all factors that may affect its value. However, there is a research gap regarding the insufficient development of methods of commercial real estate investment evaluation that integrate quantitative (financial) approaches and qualitative factors that influence the value of project, and also refer to the achievements in the scope of project management. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the integrated method of investment project evaluation based on the common valuation method (an income approach), supplemented by the results of the implementation of the Real Options Method (ROM) and complemented by the project sustainability factor. Case studies were carried out to prove that an exit option (resignation) can support the ongoing evaluation of the investment. Individual in-depth interviews (IDI) were conducted to examine the sustainability impact on its value. Three case studies involving commercial properties have verified the possibility of applying the proposed integrated method. The following findings were discovered as a result: nowadays, in the turbulent project environment, the common investment project valuation methods need to be extended to support the managerial decision regarding their further implementation and the securing of their flexibility. Also, sustainability has been recognized as a factor that increases the project value, which should be taken into account during the evaluation process. A comparative analysis indicates that the accuracy of the proposed new method delivers a more precise determination of the investment value than the common valuation methods.
In many countries, there is a need to introduce new or improved existing methods for evaluating the social impact of scientific study on the environment of scientific institutions and universities. It is necessary to apply complex methodological solutions that should consider using research results by the non-academic world. The results of this evaluation are often crucial for building a university's position in national and international rankings. They may influence decisions regarding the level of financing of scientific institutions and the distribution of public funds for subsidies, scholarships, and financial aid concerning research grants. The paper aims to review existing methodological solutions and identify key trends in developing methods for assessing the social impact of scientific study. In this case, the scope of the research was limited to evaluating the study conducted within the field of social sciences. Running such assessments is more complicated than for the technical domain, for which more easily measurable bibliometric indicators and patents are available. The research used quantitative bibliometric analyzes based on the Scopus citation database, supported by bibliometric network analyzes. The results enable the identification of crucial methodological trends, potential opportunities and directions for developing research conducive to improving methods for assessing the social impact of study. Providing an overview of existing knowledge in this field creates a foundation for continuing further research.